{"id":229795,"date":"2025-08-28T12:48:06","date_gmt":"2025-08-28T16:48:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=229795"},"modified":"2025-08-28T13:36:14","modified_gmt":"2025-08-28T17:36:14","slug":"forecast-trade-ideas-expiring-tomorrow-in-charts","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/forecast-trader\/forecast-trade-ideas-expiring-tomorrow-in-charts\/","title":{"rendered":"Forecast Trade Ideas Expiring Tomorrow in Charts: Aug. 28, 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Monthly PCE inflation results are well telegraphed by Wall Street due to critical inputs from the CPI and PPI being available, since they are released earlier in the month. For this reason, the indicator has a subdued deviation rate from expectations and rarely misses the consensus projection by more than a tenth of a percent in either direction. In consideration of the 2.6% median estimate, I believe the \u201cNos\u201d at 2.7% and 2.8% are undervalued alongside the \u201cYeses\u201d at 2.3% and 2.4%. The pricing of the thresholds span from $0.86 to $0.95 and the combination trade would require a published result of 2.4% or 2.8% to lose money. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Historical<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\"IBKR<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\"Pricing<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Canada Quarterly GDP To Remain Range Bound<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

I consider it highly unlikely that Canadian quarter over quarter GDP will exceed 1% or fall below 0.5%. That range hasn\u2019t been breached since the pandemic recovery in 2021 and in light of my -0.2% expectation and the historical trend, I find the \u201cYes\u201d answer at -0.6% undervalued at $0.94 as well as the \u201cNos\u201d at the 1% and 1.4% thresholds, which are going for $0.94 and $0.95.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Canada<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\"IBKR<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\"Pricing<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

\u201cTeam No\u201d at 2% For Singapore\u2019s SORA<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Singapore\u2019s SORA has experienced volatility lately, but the \u201cNo\u201d at 2% appears safe to me as the indicator has been consistently trending south since April. Additionally, it hasn\u2019t exceeded 2% going back to June 3rd, almost 3 months ago. Those expecting a spike may like the \u201cYes\u201d answer at the 1.3% threshold which costs $0.15, while folks projecting the rate to remain lower may favor the \u201cNo\u201d answer at 1.2%, which is priced at $0.45.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Singapore<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\"IBKR<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\"Pricing<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

\u201cTeam No\u201d For UMich Sentiment<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

The initial sentiment figure of 58.6 for this month was released on August 15 and is scheduled to be revised tomorrow. Meanwhile, revisions are what this forecast contract is based on, and they have been relatively marginal over the years, with the absolute average and median at just 0.96 and 0.75 since October 2015. The \u201cNos\u201d at 64, 66 and 68 have attractive risk-reward profiles in my opinion since an upgrade of +5.5 has never happened, and that\u2019s what would be required for \u201cTeam No\u201d to lose here at 64. The levels are ranging from $0.93 to $0.95 in cost. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Historical<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\"IBKR<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Source for Images: ForecastEx<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of August 28, 2025.<\/em> Red circles around the thresholds were inserted by J. Torres to highlight his preferred \u201cYes\u201d and \u201cNo\u201d answers throughout different levels.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders\u2019 Academy video here<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Monthly PCE inflation results are well telegraphed by Wall Street due to critical inputs from the CPI and PPI being available, since they are released earlier in the month. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":903,"featured_media":181900,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[4,18929,18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[],"contributors-categories":[13760],"class_list":{"0":"post-229795","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-asia","8":"category-forecast-trader","9":"category-macro","10":"category-north-america","11":"category-region","12":"category-securities","13":"category-text-articles","14":"category-traders-insight","15":"contributors-categories-ibkr-macroeconomics"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nForecast Trade Ideas 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His skillset includes the ability to communicate and analyze complex economic topics in English and in Spanish and throughout his career, he has been interviewed by media outlets including Bloomberg, CNBC, CNN, WSJ, AP, Yahoo Finance, Cheddar, Business Insider, Seeking Alpha, PBS, FOX, Economic Times, Univision, Telemundo and others.","url":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/author\/jose-torres\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/02\/inflation-toy-featured-img.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/229795","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/903"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=229795"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/229795\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/181900"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=229795"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=229795"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=229795"},{"taxonomy":"contributors-categories","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/contributors-categories?post=229795"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}