{"id":229742,"date":"2025-08-27T12:45:00","date_gmt":"2025-08-27T16:45:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=229742"},"modified":"2025-08-28T05:23:38","modified_gmt":"2025-08-28T09:23:38","slug":"prepping-for-nvda-earnings","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/stocks\/prepping-for-nvda-earnings\/","title":{"rendered":"Prepping for NVDA Earnings"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">I hate repeating a clich\u00e9, but it remains quite fair to say that Nvidia\u2019s (NVDA) earnings are the single most important report in any given quarter.&nbsp; The current bull market has been largely powered by the promise of artificial intelligence, and no single company is more critical to that enthusiasm than NVDA.&nbsp; As a result, it has garnered the top ranking in key market-capitalization weighted indices, meaning that as NVDA goes, so must those indices to some extent.&nbsp; Throw in the fact that the timing of NVDA\u2019s fiscal year means that it doesn\u2019t need to share the spotlight with other corporate behemoths, and we have no choice other than to focus closely on this company\u2019s results.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The key will be in the guidance.&nbsp; If NVDA can assure investors that AI-related spending will continue apace, then the rally should remain intact.&nbsp; If not, that could offer tremors through the entire tech sector.&nbsp; Bearing in mind that NVDA\u2019s largest customers include other key megacap tech stocks like Microsoft (MSFT), Meta Platforms (META), Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL), and Amazon (AMZN), concerns about NVDA\u2019s growth pace could spill over to other key index components.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">It is also important to bear in mind that NVDA is up nearly 35% since its last earnings release.&nbsp; That is a phenomenal advance, to say the least.&nbsp; Yet despite the well-deserved scrutiny surrounding each NVDA earnings report, the last three results were not immediate catalysts for major moves:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><em>NVDA 1-Year Daily Candles with Arrows Pointing to the Days Following Prior Earnings Reports (November 20, 2024; February 26, 2025; May 28, 2025)<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"633\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/08\/Picture1-14-1100x633.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-229749 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/08\/Picture1-14-1100x633.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/08\/Picture1-14-700x403.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/08\/Picture1-14-300x173.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/08\/Picture1-14-768x442.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/08\/Picture1-14.png 1122w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/633;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a><em>Source: Interactive Brokers<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The stock barely budged (+0.53%) after its November 2024 report, and the stock stayed in a wide trading range for the next few months.&nbsp; The stock fell sharply (-8.48%) after the February 2025 report, but the declines that followed were more the result of the tariff-related selloff than anything NVDA-specific.&nbsp; The most recent report led to a +3.25% gain, but the stock traded only modestly higher for several days before breaking out to new highs.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">One might think that the recent rapid ascent could leave NVDA susceptible to concerns about negative interpretations of the upcoming guidance.&nbsp; In short, the options market doesn\u2019t seem particularly perturbed.&nbsp; Options expiring this Friday show a rather symmetrical probability distribution with a peak around the current stock price:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><em>IBKR Probability Lab for NVDA Options Expiring August 29<sup>th<\/sup>, 2025<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"773\" height=\"452\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/08\/Picture2-9.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-229750 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/08\/Picture2-9.png 773w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/08\/Picture2-9-700x409.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/08\/Picture2-9-300x175.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/08\/Picture2-9-768x449.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 773px) 100vw, 773px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 773px; aspect-ratio: 773\/452;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Source: Interactive Brokers<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Skews show a reasonable, but hardly abnormal amount of risk aversion.&nbsp; Asymmetry to the downside is clearly visible, but the shapes of the skew curves were relatively typical for key stocks ahead of earnings events.&nbsp; It is only recently that flat or \u201cW-shaped\u201d skews have become common for megacap tech stocks:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><em>Skews for NVDA Options Expiring August 29<sup>th<\/sup> (top), September 5<sup>th<\/sup> (middle), September 19<sup>th<\/sup> (bottom)<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"731\" height=\"475\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/08\/Picture3-7.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-229751 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/08\/Picture3-7.png 731w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/08\/Picture3-7-700x455.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/08\/Picture3-7-300x195.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 731px) 100vw, 731px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 731px; aspect-ratio: 731\/475;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Source: Interactive Brokers<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">At-money, near-term options are implying a roughly 6% post-earnings move for NVDA.&nbsp; That is below the 7.39% average of the stock\u2019s past 6 post-earnings moves (+3.25%, -8.48%, +0.53%, -6.38%, +9.32%, +16.4%).&nbsp; It is also below the 7% that was <a href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/stocks\/all-eyes-on-nvda-ahead-of-earnings\/\">expected last quarter<\/a>, and the 8.4% that was priced in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/options\/another-day-another-stinker-plus-nvda\/\">two quarters ago<\/a>.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Bottom line: the overall level of risk aversion ahead of NVDA earnings is modest.&nbsp; At-money options are pricing in a relatively unimpressive post-earnings move, though below-market options show some desire for hedges.&nbsp; We\u2019ll know who is correct later today.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>I hate repeating a clich\u00e9, but it remains quite fair to say that Nvidia\u2019s (NVDA) earnings are the single most important report in any given quarter.\u00a0 The current bull market has been largely powered by the promise of artificial intelligence, and no single company is more critical to that enthusiasm than NVDA.\u00a0 As a result, it has garnered the top ranking in key market-capitalization weighted indices, meaning that as NVDA goes, so must those indices to some extent.\u00a0 Throw in the fact that the timing of NVDA\u2019s fiscal year means that it doesn\u2019t need to share the spotlight with other corporate behemoths, and we have no choice other than to focus closely on this company\u2019s results.\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":184228,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[14700,6,8,9,22,26,3],"tags":[],"contributors-categories":[13576],"class_list":["post-229742","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-ibkr-market-insights","category-north-america","category-region","category-securities","category-stocks","category-text-articles","category-traders-insight","contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v28.2) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Prepping for NVDA Earnings | Traders&#039; 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