{"id":229441,"date":"2025-08-21T12:54:32","date_gmt":"2025-08-21T16:54:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=229441"},"modified":"2025-09-10T11:19:39","modified_gmt":"2025-09-10T15:19:39","slug":"snappy-answers-to-smart-questions","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/snappy-answers-to-smart-questions\/","title":{"rendered":"Snappy Answers to Smart Questions"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>A big part of my day-to-day routine is being asked various questions about current market behavior, preferably answered in media-friendly segments. Also, quite frankly, I get asked more questions on down days than up.&nbsp; After a couple of down days that have followed some spectacular market advances, I\u2019ve been the recipient of quite a few recently.&nbsp; I was always a big fan of \u201cMad\u201d magazine\u2019s \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.bing.com\/ck\/a?!&amp;&amp;p=d681885c46668cf4a8be3ab01973efc47ce633e673e94649cfed6d49e181d0e1JmltdHM9MTc1NTczNDQwMA&amp;ptn=3&amp;ver=2&amp;hsh=4&amp;fclid=396fb4cb-d070-6bc1-3e1a-a19ad1c06ae6&amp;psq=snappy+answers+to+stupid+questions&amp;u=a1aHR0cHM6Ly9tYWRpdHNtYWRmdW5ueS5mYW5kb20uY29tL3dpa2kvTUFEJTI3c19TbmFwcHlfQW5zd2Vyc190b19TdHVwaWRfUXVlc3Rpb25z&amp;ntb=1\">Snappy Answers to Stupid Questions<\/a>\u201d segments, but considering that the inquiries have been quite insightful, I\u2019ll offer an array of my recent snappy answers to <strong><em>smart questions<\/em><\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Are you seeing customers continuing to buy the dip?<\/strong>\u00a0 &#8211; Heck yeah!\u00a0 Just look at the way that the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) and Nasdaq 100 (NDX) bounced as if on cue yesterday morning and then stayed well away from the early lows.\u00a0 Overall, we saw net buying activity in almost all of our 25 most active names, with recent decliners PLTR, CRWV, and NVDA showing the most bias to the buy side. \u00a0\u00a0Net overall options activity among those 25 names shows net delta buying recently (call buys &gt; sells; put buys &lt; sells).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Do you expect the bull market to continue?<\/strong> \u2013 \u00a0\u00a0To some extent this is a matter of perspective.\u00a0 It takes an awful lot to disrupt powerful multi-month trends.\u00a0 Changes like that require a process, not a couple of days here and there.\u00a0 But with people becoming more cognizant of the challenges, it is difficult to expect the prior pace to continue without disruptions.\u00a0 In the near-term, if Chair Powell can give a market-friendly speech and NVDA can meet, if not exceed, expectations, then yes, the bull market trends will likely remain in place.\u00a0 If not, a re-evaluation will be necessary.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>You have talked about the FOMO trade before \u2013 will it be enough to sustain rally?<\/strong>\u00a0 &#8211; FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) and momentum only go so far.\u00a0 We\u2019re already seeing some signs that institutional investors \u2013 the ones who experience FOMO at a professional level because their jobs are at risk if they underperform \u2013 are underweighting some of the biggest names and using upside calls to hedge their FOMO.\u00a0 This is actually helping keep VIX higher than it otherwise might have been, because we now have demand for upside \u201cFOMO hedges\u201d along with the usual demand for downside protection.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Any expectations on the Fed tomorrow, September, this year? <\/strong>\u2013 This is something <a href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/powells-pushmi-pullyu-swansong\/\">we discussed at length<\/a> earlier this week.\u00a0 My gut is that Powell will stress data dependency as a way of pushing back on the President\u2019s pressure to cut rates.\u00a0 When we look at the dual mandate, it\u2019s clear that labor is not great, but a 4.2% unemployment rate is far from dire.\u00a0 Inflation is relatively cooperative, but the PPI was a shocker, and we\u2019ve seen Core CPI and Core PCE rising each of the past three months.\u00a0 And remember that tariffs only went into full effect two weeks ago.\u00a0 Considering that we will get at least one more fresh data point on all those price measures and jobs before the next FOMC meeting, he can easily lean into data dependency.\u00a0 I also think he\u2019ll stress that rates are at worst only slightly restrictive, as we read in yesterday\u2019s release of the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bing.com\/ck\/a?!&amp;&amp;p=47481ac12eb740fd0f235040ede7c90ad3ca02689a2ddb755b0cf7d26f71e57aJmltdHM9MTc1NTczNDQwMA&amp;ptn=3&amp;ver=2&amp;hsh=4&amp;fclid=396fb4cb-d070-6bc1-3e1a-a19ad1c06ae6&amp;psq=fomc+minutes&amp;u=a1aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZmVkZXJhbHJlc2VydmUuZ292L25ld3NldmVudHMvcHJlc3NyZWxlYXNlcy9tb25ldGFyeTIwMjUwODIwYS5odG0&amp;ntb=1\">minutes to the July FOMC meeting<\/a>. Can you think of any financial activity that is being impaired by the current rate environment?\u00a0 Stocks? Credit spreads? Highly speculative assets (crypto, SPACs, etc.)? \u00a0One could assert that housing and real estate are somewhat impeded, but getting people to give up their Covid-era mortgages will take much more than 25 or 50 bp here and there.\u00a0 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cmegroup.com\/markets\/interest-rates\/cme-fedwatch-tool.html\">Rate cut expectations<\/a> have <a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/#\/market-details?id=658663572%7C20250917%7C4.125&amp;detail=contract_details\">been dropping recently<\/a>, and this type of thinking might be re-entering the market\u2019s mindset.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Are you seeing anything significant ahead of Nvidia earnings?\u00a0 <\/strong>Not much, yet.\u00a0 To be fair, we don\u2019t always see much options activity in high volatility names until a day or two before the event because options buyers don\u2019t want to bear the cost of decay.\u00a0 Currently the market is pricing in a roughly 6% post-earnings move, which is hardly dramatic.\u00a0 Broader volatility measures don\u2019t show much concern either, with VIX9D (the Cboe\u2019s measure for the market\u2019s expectation for SPX volatility over the coming 9 days, as opposed to the VIX\u2019s 30 days) trading at a relatively subdued 16 and below that of VIX\u2019s 16.68.\u00a0 Considering that the 9-day period includes Powell\u2019s speech and NVDA earnings, that\u2019s not much concern.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Any thoughts on Cracker Barrel\u2019s (CBRL) double-digit percentage decline after backlash to its logo change? <\/strong>\u2013 CBRL is effectively an \u201canti-meme\u201d stock today.\u00a0 One of the features of the original meme stocks, as opposed to the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/stocks\/return-of-the-memes\/\">recent fleeting, one-day wonders<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/stocks\/gamestop-blackberry-and-nostalgia\/?query=nostalgia&amp;query_id=Ch05_M8uQtKRa0VMEt4ufw&amp;index=engine-name-placeholder&amp;user_token=Ch05_M8uQtKRa0VMEt4ufw\">was the nostalgia and enthusiasm<\/a> associated with GameStop (GME), AMC Entertainment (AMC) and others.\u00a0 CBRL fits that bill, and the social media outrage is certainly resonating with a big piece of its customer base.\u00a0 Heck, if <a href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/stocks\/meme-stock-mad-libs\/\">Sydney Sweeney can get<\/a> American Eagle Outfitters (AEO) moving up because of a viral ad campaign, then why can\u2019t a backlash do the opposite to CBRL?<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Could I have been even snappier?&nbsp; Almost certainly.&nbsp; But these are all important, far from stupid questions that are on intelligent peoples\u2019 minds.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>A big part of my day-to-day routine is being asked various questions about current market behavior, preferably answered in media-friendly segments. Also, quite frankly, I get asked more questions on down days than up.  After a couple of down days that have followed some spectacular market advances, I\u2019ve been the recipient of quite a few recently.  I was always a big fan of \u201cMad\u201d magazine\u2019s \u201cSnappy Answers to Stupid Questions\u201d segments, but considering that the inquiries have been quite insightful, I\u2019ll offer an array of my recent snappy answers to smart questions.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":229443,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[14700,18,6,8,9,22,26,3],"tags":[],"contributors-categories":[13576],"class_list":{"0":"post-229441","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-ibkr-market-insights","8":"category-macro","9":"category-north-america","10":"category-region","11":"category-securities","12":"category-stocks","13":"category-text-articles","14":"category-traders-insight","15":"contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.3) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Snappy Answers to Smart Questions | Traders&#039; Insight<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"A big part of my day-to-day routine is being asked various questions about current market behavior, preferably answered in media-friendly segments....\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/229441\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Snappy Answers to Smart Questions | IBKR Campus US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"A big part of my day-to-day routine is being asked various questions about current market behavior, preferably answered in media-friendly segments. Also, quite frankly, I get asked more questions on down days than up. After a couple of down days that have followed some spectacular market advances, I\u2019ve been the recipient of quite a few recently. I was always a big fan of \u201cMad\u201d magazine\u2019s \u201cSnappy Answers to Stupid Questions\u201d segments, but considering that the inquiries have been quite insightful, I\u2019ll offer an array of my recent snappy answers to smart questions.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/snappy-answers-to-smart-questions\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"IBKR Campus US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2025-08-21T16:54:32+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2025-09-10T15:19:39+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/08\/questions-answers-featured-img.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1000\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"563\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" 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He has held numerous roles in the organization since joining Timber Hill, IBKR\u2019s predecessor, in 1995 as Equity Risk Manager and an options market maker. He developed and implemented automated trading strategies for stocks and options before moving into his current role. Steve has guest authored several columns in Barron\u2019s and made numerous live on Bloomberg TV and Radio, CNBC, Yahoo Finance, Fox Business, and several other media outlets several media outlets in North America, Asia, Australia, and the Middle East in addition to being quoted frequently in print and electronic media. 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Also, quite frankly, I get asked more questions on down days than up. After a couple of down days that have followed some spectacular market advances, I\u2019ve been the recipient of quite a few recently. 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