{"id":229419,"date":"2025-08-21T10:45:00","date_gmt":"2025-08-21T14:45:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=229419"},"modified":"2025-08-21T13:05:43","modified_gmt":"2025-08-21T17:05:43","slug":"do-we-still-expect-an-active-hurricane-season","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/esg\/do-we-still-expect-an-active-hurricane-season\/","title":{"rendered":"Do we still expect an active hurricane season?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-atlantic-hurricane-count-prediction-market-update-8-21-2025\">Atlantic Hurricane Count Prediction Market Update 8\/21\/2025<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Coming into the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, most seasonal forecasts called for above-normal hurricane activity <a href=\"https:\/\/tropical.colostate.edu\/forecasting.html\">due to warm sea surface temperatures and cool to neutral El Ni\u00f1o conditions<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" data-src=\"https:\/\/lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com\/docsz\/AD_4nXfGjcc05WjR6V0ZDnmp3uvikkXiEQ0gzLg830vFp6QZVSb_zp5Q_V7R4X4hZQdIRGbgJCYYDp4rR49uE6XuYO-C6ZXA67eNHWMdJT8Qf7EG6Qtsn_0YybSxeFL6ncZzfHuUI19LIg?key=I2EGCB0Y1D-1qOP5ndz9ng\" alt=\"2025 Hurricane Season Forecast and Predictions\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" class=\"lazyload\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>From <a href=\"https:\/\/www.artemis.bm\/2025-atlantic-hurricane-season\/\">Artemis<\/a>.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This sentiment more-or-less currently reflected in <a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/#\/market-details?id=780951151%7C20251231%7C8&amp;detail=underlying\">ForecastEx\u2019s market<\/a> for the total 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Count, which, for example, indicates a 60% chance of 8 or more hurricanes, where the average is around 7.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" data-src=\"https:\/\/lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com\/docsz\/AD_4nXcKYc5n-00SLpAtRfSCSOgPdD-tDKSaAPVrp08ei-57fXQHdcvUwf6wBAZDezv5q1Dlw5fUpV8HfgE9DhbJGPRZ_oJrI9fs3PnqPQTdbODIj1uCCnOLN_MN5nsg3sr39SZm58Bl3Q?key=I2EGCB0Y1D-1qOP5ndz9ng\" alt=\"Hurricane Count Atlantic Basin\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" class=\"lazyload\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>From: <a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/#\/market-details?id=780951151%7C20251231%7C8&amp;detail=underlying\">ForecastTrader<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>However, as of August 21st, Hurricane Erin remains the only hurricane of the season so far. What does this tell us about where we will end up?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Below is the typical cumulative count of hurricanes in the Atlantic in black, as well as the range from 1985 to 2024 in grey. As of August 21st, we typically would have seen 1.5 hurricanes form and have 5.6 yet to come.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" data-src=\"https:\/\/lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com\/docsz\/AD_4nXfY5iwj6nCOadvLbZUuv84zZL4WFCwbUVBPn53kEtoMlpbUmgCiK7qDIMkoC4K_ZrVJV4jZkhC0Ure6K1xCTzY2Vh2x3Agq7-hnIiWq8e2g1Tr_Dgcf5rdwXTY8axbS7KQTV6pu8A?key=I2EGCB0Y1D-1qOP5ndz9ng\" alt=\"Cumulative Yearly Atlantic Hurricane Count\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" class=\"lazyload\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>From <a href=\"https:\/\/www.aoml.noaa.gov\/hrd\/hurdat\/Data_Storm.html\">NOAA HURDAT2 Data<\/a> processed and plotted in Matlab.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I am also showing a projection for the remainder of 2025 in red that yields a distribution of plausible year-end totals conditioned only on where we are in the calendar and how many hurricanes we\u2019ve seen form so far. For each past year, I isolate the hurricane count trajectory going from today\u2019s date forward, then add that to this year\u2019s year-to-date tally. The projection does not take into account any meteorological information or weather forecasts.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This basic projection suggests that since we are a bit below average now, we will end the season a bit below average as well, with only a 30% chance of finishing the year above average.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We are also entering what is typically peak hurricane season (the slope of the black line above is entering its steepest portion of the year), so what happens in the next few weeks has high leverage on the outlook for the season total.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Below is what the same plot would look like if we&#8217;ve still seen only one hurricane by one week from today. Hypothetically, if no hurricanes form by this time next week, this basic projection method would say that the 30% chance of finishing the year above average would drop to 20%.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" data-src=\"https:\/\/lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com\/docsz\/AD_4nXd_qvP4ptnUrPmi-g5rwPUFLLlcfxDjbf57k-KYOYN-tSFEZaP8bJVxuBX4BCNcB-hEyo6xuKLOLAqBqtFCHJ3jppb8oNngIACaCYGHxy_0Bgwazh1l-0n1jTq09s-VN9VNc8EZRw?key=I2EGCB0Y1D-1qOP5ndz9ng\" alt=\"\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" class=\"lazyload\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>From <a href=\"https:\/\/www.aoml.noaa.gov\/hrd\/hurdat\/Data_Storm.html\">NOAA HURDAT2 Data<\/a> processed and plotted in Matlab.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>However, the National Hurricane Center is watching three areas that may develop into tropical cyclones within the next week (tropical cyclones are below the status of a hurricane). One has a 70% chance, one has a 40% chance, and one has a 30% chance to develop.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" data-src=\"https:\/\/lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com\/docsz\/AD_4nXcZOlsxdimtmSuSLM9Q1IRVgQcLFEVDQEJ-wpecNCo-ZtcW-cRNzwkGPjvgs22PY6a0gZVh8RXmdCfWjzVyIn8mhmvrUOyMV66uwzTBRPEn_9zgvvEYLPD0A2qCC4rwOkLFY90fLA?key=I2EGCB0Y1D-1qOP5ndz9ng\" alt=\"One has a 70% chance, one has a 40% chance, and one has a 30% chance to develop.\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" class=\"lazyload\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>From <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nhc.noaa.gov\/\">NOAA National Hurricane Center<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Hypothetically, if two out of the three disturbances were to develop into hurricanes by a week from today, it would shift the simple projection to better-than-even odds for above-normal activity for the year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" data-src=\"https:\/\/lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com\/docsz\/AD_4nXf-pYL0vhbrWA9HcX-0QXc3EYdbKn9aqo3SLVSfxMVleuM0ogafIzzN0NLRGaWdid1JoVMYjao022ppo-zHkMtbHrKXONjGxl3RQ59oEA-UNCAQ4fhCzNyIRwb6Nr10cb1Ts1kKRA?key=I2EGCB0Y1D-1qOP5ndz9ng\" alt=\"if two out of the three disturbances were to develop into hurricanes by a week from today, it would shift the simple projection to better-than-even odds for above-normal activity for the year.\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" class=\"lazyload\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Thus, those trading in the <a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/#\/market-details?id=780951151%7C20251231%7C8&amp;detail=underlying\">Atlantic Basin Hurricane Count prediction market<\/a> should keep a close eye on what happens in the next week.&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Atlantic Hurricane Count Prediction Market Update 8\/21\/2025 Coming into the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, most seasonal forecasts called for above-normal hurricane activity due to warm sea surface temperatures and cool to neutral El Ni\u00f1o conditions. From Artemis.&nbsp; This sentiment more-or-less currently reflected in ForecastEx\u2019s market for the total 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Count, which, for example, [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1601,"featured_media":224330,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5924,18931,18929,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[],"contributors-categories":[13576],"class_list":{"0":"post-229419","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-esg","8":"category-ibkr-climate-energy","9":"category-forecast-trader","10":"category-north-america","11":"category-region","12":"category-securities","13":"category-text-articles","14":"category-traders-insight","15":"contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- 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