{"id":229223,"date":"2025-08-19T12:00:04","date_gmt":"2025-08-19T16:00:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=229223"},"modified":"2025-08-19T12:58:25","modified_gmt":"2025-08-19T16:58:25","slug":"trade-that-expires-tomorrow-canada-new-home-prices","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/prediction-market\/trade-that-expires-tomorrow-canada-new-home-prices\/","title":{"rendered":"Trade that Expires Tomorrow: Canada New Home Prices: Aug. 19, 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Tomorrow morning\u2019s Canada New Housing Price Index for July is expected to post a 0.1% month-over-month increase following three consecutive months of declines while March served an unchanged value. I find the risk-reward profiles of the \u201cNos\u201d attractive starting at <a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/?loginType=1&amp;forwardTo=100&amp;clt=0&amp;ip2loc=OFF&amp;locale=en_US#\/market-details?id=787272475%7C20250820%7C0.2\">0.2%<\/a> all the way up to 0.4%, which range from $0.87 to $0.94 in cost, because the indicator hasn\u2019t climbed more than 0.2% since May 2022, over three years ago. But after three months in a row of negative numbers, I think the \u201cYes\u201d at 0.3% is also undervalued at just $0.63, a level that the print has exceeded in all but two recent months going back all the way to June 2009, during the depths of the Great Financial Crisis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1050\" height=\"763\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/08\/Picture1-FT-Aug-19.png\" alt=\"Canada New Housing Pricing Index has not climbed more than 0.2% per month since May 2022.\" class=\"wp-image-229225 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/08\/Picture1-FT-Aug-19.png 1050w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/08\/Picture1-FT-Aug-19-700x509.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/08\/Picture1-FT-Aug-19-300x218.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/08\/Picture1-FT-Aug-19-768x558.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1050px) 100vw, 1050px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1050px; aspect-ratio: 1050\/763;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"100\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/08\/Picture2-FT-Aug-20-1100x100.png\" alt=\"IBKR ForecastTrader Contract with Canada New Housing Price threshold of -0.3% for July.\" class=\"wp-image-229226 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/08\/Picture2-FT-Aug-20-1100x100.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/08\/Picture2-FT-Aug-20-700x64.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/08\/Picture2-FT-Aug-20-300x27.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/08\/Picture2-FT-Aug-20-768x70.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/08\/Picture2-FT-Aug-20.png 1320w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/100;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"96\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/08\/Picture3-FT-Aug-19-1100x96.png\" alt=\"IBKR ForecastTrader Contract with Canada New Housing Price threshold of -0.2% for July.\" class=\"wp-image-229227 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/08\/Picture3-FT-Aug-19-1100x96.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/08\/Picture3-FT-Aug-19-700x61.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/08\/Picture3-FT-Aug-19-300x26.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/08\/Picture3-FT-Aug-19-768x67.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/08\/Picture3-FT-Aug-19.png 1326w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/96;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"532\" height=\"622\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/08\/Picture4-FT-Aug-19.png\" alt=\"Pricing of IBKR ForecastTrader Contract for New Housing Prices \" class=\"wp-image-229229 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/08\/Picture4-FT-Aug-19.png 532w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/08\/Picture4-FT-Aug-19-300x351.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 532px) 100vw, 532px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 532px; aspect-ratio: 532\/622;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">S<em>ource for Images: ForecastEx<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of August 19, 2025.<\/em>&nbsp;<em>Red circles around the thresholds were inserted by J. Torres to highlight his preferred \u201cYes\u201d and \u201cNo\u201d answers throughout different levels.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders\u2019 Academy video&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=ceR-weGZSXc\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>here<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Tomorrow morning\u2019s Canada New Housing Price Index for July is expected to post a 0.1% month over month increase following 3 consecutive months of declines while March served an unchanged value.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":903,"featured_media":220585,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[18929,18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[19883],"contributors-categories":[13760],"class_list":["post-229223","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-prediction-market","category-macro","category-north-america","category-region","category-securities","category-text-articles","category-traders-insight","tag-canada-new-housing-price-index","contributors-categories-ibkr-macroeconomics"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v28.5) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Trade that Expires Tomorrow: 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