{"id":229132,"date":"2025-08-18T12:40:20","date_gmt":"2025-08-18T16:40:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=229132"},"modified":"2025-08-18T14:38:27","modified_gmt":"2025-08-18T18:38:27","slug":"trades-that-expire-tomorrow-us-starts-permits-canada-cpi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/forecast-trader\/trades-that-expire-tomorrow-us-starts-permits-canada-cpi\/","title":{"rendered":"Trades That Expire Tomorrow: US Starts and Permits, Canada CPI: Aug. 18, 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Housing starts are expected to arrive at 1.3 million seasonally adjusted annualized units (SAAU) and I find the risk-reward profiles of the \u201cYes\u201d at 1.4 million and the \u201cNo\u201d at 1.2 million attractive. The levels are going for $0.90 and $0.89 and a major reason why I like them is that 1.4 million would require a significant surge which I don\u2019t envision due to depressed construction activity while breaching 1.2 million would mean a pandemic level slump, considering we haven\u2019t seen that since May of 2020, over 5 years ago. I don\u2019t think a huge move is in the cards for tomorrow\u2019s print.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Housing<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\"IBKR<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\"IBKR<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

\u201cTeam Yes\u201d on Permits<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

I\u2019m on \u201cTeam Yes\u201d for tomorrow\u2019s building permits at the 1.35 million and 1.30 million SAAU thresholds. The levels cost $0.86 and $0.95 and similar to the example above, this indicator hasn\u2019t been below 1.35 million since June of 2020, over 5 years ago. While the real estate sector is certainly in dire conditions, it isn\u2019t as bad as during the depths of the COVID-19 pandemic.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"risk<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\"IBKR<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\"IBKR<\/figure>\n\n\n\n


\u201cTeam No\u201d on Canada\u2019s CPI<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Tomorrow\u2019s Consumer Price Index for Canada is expected to decline from 1.9% to 1.7% in light of softening cost pressures. In light of the expectation and a Reuters poll of 16 forecasters with estimates ranging from 1.6% to 1.9%, I like the \u201cNo\u201d answers beginning at the 2% threshold all the way up to 2.6% which pricing extending from $0.57 to $0.93. Additionally, I\u2019m anticipating my projection is in-line with the consensus at 1.7% and find the 2% level at $0.57 to offer undervalued odds to opportunistic participants.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Canada<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\"Pricing<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Source for Images: ForecastEx<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of August 18, 2025.<\/em> Red circles around the thresholds were inserted by J. Torres to highlight his preferred \u201cYes\u201d and \u201cNo\u201d answers throughout different levels.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders\u2019 Academy video here<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Housing starts are expected to arrive at 1.3 million seasonally adjusted annualized units (SAAU) and I find the risk-reward profiles of the \u201cYes\u201d at 1.4 million and the \u201cNo\u201d at 1.2 million attractive. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":903,"featured_media":189947,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[18929,18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[3093,19110,20476,20477,18284],"contributors-categories":[13760],"class_list":{"0":"post-229132","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-forecast-trader","8":"category-macro","9":"category-north-america","10":"category-region","11":"category-securities","12":"category-text-articles","13":"category-traders-insight","14":"tag-building-permits","15":"tag-canada-cpi","16":"tag-macro-forecast-contracts","17":"tag-trade-expirations","18":"tag-us-housing-starts","19":"contributors-categories-ibkr-macroeconomics"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nTrades That Expire Tomorrow: US Starts and 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His skillset includes the ability to communicate and analyze complex economic topics in English and in Spanish and throughout his career, he has been interviewed by media outlets including Bloomberg, CNBC, CNN, WSJ, AP, Yahoo Finance, Cheddar, Business Insider, Seeking Alpha, PBS, FOX, Economic Times, Univision, Telemundo and others.","url":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/author\/jose-torres\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/05\/jobs-workers-engineering-featured-img.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/229132","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/903"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=229132"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/229132\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/189947"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=229132"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=229132"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=229132"},{"taxonomy":"contributors-categories","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/contributors-categories?post=229132"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}