{"id":229098,"date":"2025-08-18T10:30:00","date_gmt":"2025-08-18T14:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=229098"},"modified":"2025-08-19T05:25:06","modified_gmt":"2025-08-19T09:25:06","slug":"weekly-market-recap-week-of-august-18-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/weekly-market-recap-week-of-august-18-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Weekly Market Recap: Week of August 18, 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-thought-of-the-week\">Thought of the Week<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>The shape of the U.S. Treasury yield curve is, by no means, a perfect predictor of the economy\u2019s future, but it does signal what market participants think about the economy and Fed policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A \u201cnormal\u201d or upward-sloping curve, which has occurred 73% of the time since 1962 (as shown in this week\u2019s chart), reflects a generally stable outlook for economic growth, inflation, and monetary policy. It slopes upward because, all other things being equal, investors demand compensation for the extra risk in holding longer-term bonds. An inverted curve is typically a sign of an impending recession, implying that investors expect the Fed to cut short-term rates to battle economic weakness. A flat curve indicates gradually slowing growth or inflation, allowing the Fed to ease gradually. A humped curve suggests the Fed is expected to raise rates aggressively to address hot inflation but then ease back when the economy has slowed. Lastly, there is the rare U-shaped curve, which is the shape of the yield curve today. It suggests current Fed rates are too high compared to those expected 2-3 years from now, but elevated long rates imply that investors will continue to demand a premium due to rising fiscal deficits and long-term inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Given today\u2019s U-shaped curve, investors may want to be more cautious about the extremes. Holding too much cash poses reinvestment risk, and long-end rates may stay volatile. Investing in bonds with 2-3 year maturities may present an attractive middle ground.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-the-week-in-review\">The week in review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Headline CPI rose 0.2% m\/m (2.7% y\/y)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Core CPI rose 0.3% m\/m (3.1% y\/y)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Retail sales grew 0.5% m\/m<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Consumer sentiment decreased to 58.6<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-the-week-ahead\">The week ahead<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Housing starts<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>FOMC minutes<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Markit PMIs (preliminary)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1008\" height=\"404\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-18-100623.png\" alt=\"U-shaped yield curves are rare and have important signals\" class=\"wp-image-229099 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-18-100623.png 1008w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-18-100623-700x281.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-18-100623-300x120.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-18-100623-768x308.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1008px) 100vw, 1008px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1008px; aspect-ratio: 1008\/404;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Chart of the Week: Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. The<br>yield curve shapes are defined as follows: Normal: upward sloping<br>with 3M &lt; 5Y &lt; 10Y; Humped: 3M &lt; 5Y &gt; 10Y; Inverted: 3M &gt; 5Y &gt; 10Y; Ushaped: 3M &gt; 5Y &lt; 10Y; Flat: 3M = 5Y = 10Y, with a tolerance range of<br>0.25.<br>Thought of the week: Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan Asset Management.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u2014<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Originally Posted August 18, 2025 \u2013\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/am.jpmorgan.com\/us\/en\/asset-management\/adv\/insights\/market-insights\/market-updates\/weekly-market-recap\/\">Weekly Market Recap<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Past performance does not guarantee future results.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Diversification does not guarantee investment returns and does not eliminate the risk of loss.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Opinions and estimates offered constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice, as are statements of financial market trends, which are based on current market conditions. We believe the information provided here is reliable, but do not warrant its accuracy or completeness. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. The views and strategies described may not be appropriate for all investors. This material has been prepared for informational purposes only, and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied on for, accounting, legal or tax advice. References to future returns are not promises or even estimates of actual returns a client portfolio may achieve. Any forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be relied upon as advice or interpreted as a recommendation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Market Insights program provides comprehensive data and commentary on global markets without reference to products. Designed as a tool to help clients understand the markets and support investment decision-making, the program explores the implications of current economic data and changing market conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The J.P. Morgan Asset Management Market Insights and Portfolio Insights programs, as non-independent research, have not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, nor are they subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This document is a general communication being provided for informational purposes only. It is educational in nature and not designed to be taken as advice or a recommendation for any specific investment product, strategy, plan feature<br>or other purpose in any jurisdiction, nor is it a commitment from J.P. Morgan Asset Management or any of its subsidiaries to participate in any of the transactions mentioned herein. Any examples used are generic, hypothetical and for illustration purposes only. This material does not contain sufficient information to support an investment decision and it should not be relied upon by you in evaluating the merits of investing in any securities or products. In addition, users should make an independent assessment of the legal, regulatory, tax, credit, and accounting implications and determine, together with their own financial professional, if any investment mentioned herein is believed to be appropriate to their personal goals. Investors should ensure that they obtain all available relevant information before making any investment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Any forecasts, figures, opinions or investment techniques and strategies set out are for information purposes only, based on certain assumptions and current market conditions and are subject to change without prior notice. All information presented herein is considered to be accurate at the time of production, but no warranty of accuracy is given and no liability in respect of any error or omission is accepted. It should be noted that investment involves risks, the value of investments and the income from them may fluctuate in accordance with market conditions and taxation agreements and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Both past performance and yields are not reliable indicators of current and future results.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>J.P. Morgan Asset Management is the brand for the asset management business of JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. and its affiliates worldwide.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Telephone calls and electronic communications may be monitored and\/or recorded.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Personal data will be collected, stored and processed by J.P. Morgan Asset Management in accordance with our privacy policies at https:\/\/www.jpmorgan.com\/privacy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This communication is issued in the United States, by J.P. Morgan Investment Management Inc. or J.P. Morgan Alternative Asset Management, Inc., both regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If you are a person with a disability and need additional support in viewing the material, please call us at 1-800-343-1113 for assistance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Copyright 2025 JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. All rights reserved.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><sup>\u00a9<\/sup>JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co., August 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Unless otherwise stated, all data is as of August 18, 2025 or as of most recently available.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>This week&#8217;s chart highlights the rarity of U-shaped yield curves, signaling high current Fed rates and long-term inflation concerns.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":186,"featured_media":229099,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[2397,3221,446,570,850,20484,2298,1081,3559,910],"contributors-categories":[13608],"class_list":{"0":"post-229098","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-macro","8":"category-north-america","9":"category-region","10":"category-securities","11":"category-text-articles","12":"category-traders-insight","13":"tag-earnings-season","14":"tag-economic-data","15":"tag-federal-reserve","16":"tag-inflation","17":"tag-interest-rates","18":"tag-macroeconomic-indicators","19":"tag-market-recap","20":"tag-nasdaq-100","21":"tag-russell-2000","22":"tag-sp-500","23":"contributors-categories-j-p-morgan-asset-management"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- 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