{"id":228968,"date":"2025-08-15T12:48:55","date_gmt":"2025-08-15T16:48:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=228968"},"modified":"2025-08-15T13:18:04","modified_gmt":"2025-08-15T17:18:04","slug":"trade-of-the-day-team-no-on-final-umich-sentiment","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/trade-of-the-day-team-no-on-final-umich-sentiment\/","title":{"rendered":"Trade of the Day: \u201cTeam No\u201d on Final UMich Sentiment: Aug. 15, 2025 \u00a0"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Today\u2019s initial consumer sentiment print of 58.6 will be revised on Friday, Aug. 29, and a record upward revision would be required to reach the current available thresholds in our IBKR ForecastTrader marketplace. Indeed, a historic upgrade of 5.5, which has never occurred, is needed for the advance estimate of 58.6 to exceed the lowest contract level for this month, which stands at 64. For this reason, I like the risk-reward profiles of the \u201cNos\u201d at 64, 66 and 68, priced at $0.81, $0.89 and $0.96. In absolute terms, the average and median revisions have been 0.8 and 0.97. Furthermore, investors would earn approximately two weeks of interest-like incentive coupons that currently annualize at 3.83% and shift in proportion to changes in contract values.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1050\" height=\"763\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/08\/pix-1-aug-15-ft.png\" alt=\"Pricing of IBKR ForecastTrader Contract for consumer sentiment and historical consumer sentiment revision\" class=\"wp-image-228970 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/08\/pix-1-aug-15-ft.png 1050w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/08\/pix-1-aug-15-ft-700x509.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/08\/pix-1-aug-15-ft-300x218.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/08\/pix-1-aug-15-ft-768x558.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1050px) 100vw, 1050px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1050px; aspect-ratio: 1050\/763;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1006\" height=\"86\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/08\/Picture-2-aug-15-FT.png\" alt=\"Pricing of IBKR ForecastTrader Contract asking if the Consumer Sentiment Index will exceed 64 in August\" class=\"wp-image-228971 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/08\/Picture-2-aug-15-FT.png 1006w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/08\/Picture-2-aug-15-FT-700x60.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/08\/Picture-2-aug-15-FT-300x26.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/08\/Picture-2-aug-15-FT-768x66.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1006px) 100vw, 1006px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1006px; aspect-ratio: 1006\/86;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"509\" height=\"492\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/08\/Picture-3-aug-15-FT.png\" alt=\"Pricing of IBKR ForecastTrader consument sentiment contract\" class=\"wp-image-228972 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/08\/Picture-3-aug-15-FT.png 509w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/08\/Picture-3-aug-15-FT-300x290.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 509px) 100vw, 509px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 509px; aspect-ratio: 509\/492;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>S<em>ource for Images: ForecastEx<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of August 15, 2025.<\/em>&nbsp;<em>Red circle around the thresholds was inserted by J. Torres to highlight his preferred \u201cNo\u201d answers throughout different levels.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders\u2019 Academy video&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=ceR-weGZSXc\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>here<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Today\u2019s initial consumer sentiment print of 58.6 will be revised on Friday, Aug. 29, and a record upward revision would be required to reach the current available thresholds in our IBKR ForecastTrader marketplace. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":903,"featured_media":218936,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[18929,18,6,8,9,3],"tags":[],"contributors-categories":[13760],"class_list":{"0":"post-228968","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-forecast-trader","8":"category-macro","9":"category-north-america","10":"category-region","11":"category-securities","12":"category-traders-insight","13":"contributors-categories-ibkr-macroeconomics"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.4) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Trade of the Day: \u201cTeam No\u201d on Final UMich Sentiment: Aug. 15, 2025 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