{"id":228937,"date":"2025-08-15T09:37:30","date_gmt":"2025-08-15T13:37:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=228937"},"modified":"2025-08-15T09:48:48","modified_gmt":"2025-08-15T13:48:48","slug":"chart-advisor-why-august-to-october-can-be-the-markets-bumpy-season","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/chart-advisor-why-august-to-october-can-be-the-markets-bumpy-season\/","title":{"rendered":"Chart Advisor: Why August to October Can Be the Market\u2019s Bumpy Season"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

By Todd Stankiewicz CMT, CFP, ChFC<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

1\/ Buckle Up: Why August to October Can Be the Market\u2019s Bumpy Season<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

2\/ Sector Rotation Signals from RRGs<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

3\/ Small Caps and Deregulation: A Forgotten Corner with Fresh Potential<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investopedia is partnering with CMT Association on this newsletter.  The contents of this newsletter are for informational and educational purposes only, however, and do not constitute investing advice. The guest authors, which may sell research to investors, and may trade or hold positions in securities mentioned herein do not represent the views of CMT Association or Investopedia. Please consult a financial advisor for investment recommendations and services.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

1\/<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Buckle Up: Why August to October Can Be the Market\u2019s Bumpy Season<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Seasonality is one of the quieter tools in a technician\u2019s kit, but it can be surprisingly powerful. Strip away the headlines and macro debates, and a pattern remains: certain times of the year simply perform better than others. You don\u2019t have to know exactly why for it to be useful\u2026sometimes, \u201cit is what it is\u201d is enough.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Looking at the S&P 500\u2019s seasonal trends over the last decade, one stretch stands out: August through October.<\/em> September is historically the single worst month for average returns, February comes in second, and October takes a close third. August doesn\u2019t always rank as poorly on average, but the back half often sets the tone for a volatile fall.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Data Behind the Pattern<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Over the last 10 years:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \n
  • September<\/strong> has the lowest average return of the year and one of the lowest rates of positive months.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • October<\/strong> ranks just behind, with frequent volatility spikes.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • Late August<\/strong> often acts as a lead-in to this weaker stretch, especially when markets are extended.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n

    This isn\u2019t to say the market always falls, just that the odds of choppier price action go up. Volatility tends to increase, trends can stall, and even healthy markets may retrace.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    What It Means Now<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    We\u2019re entering a part of the calendar where historical odds favor caution. That doesn\u2019t mean \u201csell everything,\u201d it means ensuring your portfolio can handle turbulence without forcing reactive decisions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Consider:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      \n
    • Adjusting position sizes so no single trade or sector dominates your risk.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
    • Tightening stops or adding hedges.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
    • Rotating some exposure toward defensive sectors like utilities, healthcare, or consumer staples.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n

      The Takeaway<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

      Seasonality won\u2019t predict the future with certainty, but it\u2019s valuable context. The August\u2013October window has earned its reputation as a challenging stretch. Use this time to review allocations, check your risk controls, and stay patient. In markets, sometimes the smartest move is to prepare for the storm before you see the clouds.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      2\/<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

      S&P 500: Riding the Upper Band, But for How Long?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

      \"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

      If we\u2019re going to address the elephant in the room, let\u2019s talk about the S&P 500. The weekly chart, with Bollinger Bands, RSI, and candlestick patterns, is showing a clear picture: strong momentum, stretched conditions, and signs we\u2019re in a late-stage move.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      Bollinger Bands: Extended Strength<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

      On the weekly $SPX chart with Bollinger Bands (20,2,2):<\/p>\n\n\n\n

        \n
      • Price is hugging the upper band near 6466, a position held since April 2025.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
      • Bands have widened since April, signaling increased volatility after the sharp drop and recovery.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
      • The index hasn\u2019t touched the middle band (20-week MA) since June, showing persistent buying pressure.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n

        When price rides the upper band for this long, the first logical pullback target is the middle band, now around 6200.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

        Momentum Signals<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

          \n
        • RSI is near 67\u201368 \ud83e\udc6a strong but not overbought (70+).<\/li>\n\n\n\n
        • The percent of Bollinger Band Width above 0.8 confirms we\u2019re near statistical extremes.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
        • Recent peaks near 1.0 have triggered brief pullbacks, not full reversals.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n

          Candlestick Context<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

            \n
          • April\u2019s three strong bullish candles after the March crash marked a textbook reversal.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
          • Early July\u2019s \u201cthree inside down\u201d bearish setup failed, underscoring trend strength.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
          • The last two weekly candles have smaller bodies, a sign of hesitation, not yet a reversal.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n

            Path of Least Resistance<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

            As long as:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

              \n
            • RSI stays below 70<\/li>\n\n\n\n
            • Price holds the upper band<\/li>\n\n\n\n
            • No major bearish reversal pattern forms<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n

              \u2026the trend remains upward. Still, narrowing ranges and lighter volume hint at distribution, meaning new long entries should be sized conservatively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n


              Bottom line<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

              The S&P 500 remains in an extended uptrend, but it\u2019s stretched. Watch for a rejection at the upper band as a potential first step toward a move back to the 6200 area. Until then, respect the momentum, but keep risk controls tight.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

              3\/<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

              Small Caps and Deregulation: A Forgotten Corner with Fresh Potential<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

              \"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

              While headlines obsess over mega-cap tech, there\u2019s a quieter story developing in small caps, one that could get louder if deregulation gains traction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n


              Industrials, healthcare, infrastructure, and communications services are among the sectors that could see real benefits from lighter regulatory burdens. And some small-cap companies are positioned to turn that policy shift into meaningful growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

              The Russell 2000, a benchmark for small-cap stocks, has lagged badly for years. But technically, it\u2019s showing signs that a trend change may be underway.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

              The Technical Picture<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

              On the weekly Russell 2000 chart:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

                \n
              • Price has broken above the upper band near 2,328 for the first time in years.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
              • Bollinger Bands are widening after a long compression phase (2022\u20132023), often a precursor to sustained trends.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
              • RSI is pushing above 60, reflecting momentum building since the March 2025 low.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
              • The index has formed higher lows and higher highs since April, a textbook uptrend.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n

                Key Levels to Watch<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

                Support:<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

                  \n
                • 2,240\u20132,250: recent consolidation zone<\/li>\n\n\n\n
                • 2,100: key psychological level<\/li>\n\n\n\n
                • 1,860\u20131,900: major multi-year support<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n

                  Resistance:<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

                    \n
                  • 2,380\u20132,400: late 2024 highs<\/li>\n\n\n\n
                  • 2,450: all-time high from 2021<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n

                    A close above 2,400\u20132,450 would mark a significant technical breakout.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

                    Why Deregulation Could Be the Catalyst<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

                    Small caps often outperform when:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

                      \n
                    • The Fed is easing<\/li>\n\n\n\n
                    • Economic growth is improving<\/li>\n\n\n\n
                    • Investors rotate into risk-on assets<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n

                      Layer in sector-specific deregulation, and the impact could be amplified:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

                        \n
                      • Industrials<\/em>: Lower compliance costs free up capital for expansion.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
                      • Healthcare:<\/em> Permanent Telehealth safe harbor and less red tape. <\/li>\n\n\n\n
                      • Infrastructure:<\/em> Streamlined permitting boosts project timelines.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
                      • Communications:<\/em> Roll back for antiquated FCC rules<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n

                        Bottom Line<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

                        Small caps have been in the shadows for years, but the combination of improving technicals and potential deregulation sets the stage for a shift.<\/p>\n\n\n\n


                        The Russell 2000 still needs to clear 2,400 to confirm the breakout, but if policy winds align with price action, the next leg up in small caps could be led by the very sectors most primed to benefit from a lighter regulatory touch.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

                        —<\/p>\n\n\n\n

                        Originally posted 15th August 2025<\/p>\n\n\n\n

                        <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

                        By Todd Stankiewicz CMT, CFP, ChFC 1\/ Buckle Up: Why August to October Can Be the Market\u2019s Bumpy Season 2\/ Sector Rotation Signals from RRGs 3\/ Small Caps and Deregulation: A Forgotten Corner with Fresh Potential Investopedia is partnering with CMT Association on this newsletter.  The contents of this newsletter are for informational and educational purposes […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":186,"featured_media":228940,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[18,6,8,9,22,23,26,3],"tags":[4676,3559,207],"contributors-categories":[13686],"class_list":{"0":"post-228937","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-macro","8":"category-north-america","9":"category-region","10":"category-securities","11":"category-stocks","12":"category-technical-analysis","13":"category-text-articles","14":"category-traders-insight","15":"tag-bollinger-bands","16":"tag-russell-2000","17":"tag-spx","18":"contributors-categories-investopedia"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nChart Advisor: Why August to October Can Be the Market\u2019s Bumpy 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