{"id":228916,"date":"2025-08-14T13:07:17","date_gmt":"2025-08-14T17:07:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=228916"},"modified":"2025-08-14T14:41:11","modified_gmt":"2025-08-14T18:41:11","slug":"retail-sales-industrial-production-trade-ideas-that-expire-tomorrow-morning-aug-14-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/forecast-trader\/retail-sales-industrial-production-trade-ideas-that-expire-tomorrow-morning-aug-14-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Retail Sales, Industrial Production Trade Ideas That Expire Tomorrow Morning: Aug. 14, 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Tomorrow&#8217;s retail sales report is expected to show a 0.5% month-over-month increase for July, but my estimate is way higher at 0.8%. Meanwhile, I don\u2019t think the number will be less than 0% or above 2.7%, so I like the risk-reward profiles of the <a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/?loginType=1&amp;forwardTo=100&amp;clt=0&amp;ip2loc=OFF#\/market-details?id=626425591%7C20250815%7C-0.3\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u201cYes\u201d<\/a> at $0.89 and the \u201cNo\u201d at 2.7% for $0.96.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"95\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/08\/Picture1-6-1100x95.png\" alt=\"Will the US retail sales growth rate be greater than -0.3% in July 2025?\" class=\"wp-image-228918 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/08\/Picture1-6-1100x95.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/08\/Picture1-6-700x61.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/08\/Picture1-6-300x26.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/08\/Picture1-6-768x67.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/08\/Picture1-6.png 1327w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/95;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"99\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/08\/Picture2-5-1100x99.png\" alt=\"Will the US retail sales growth rate be greater than 2.7% in July 2025?\" class=\"wp-image-228919 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/08\/Picture2-5-1100x99.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/08\/Picture2-5-700x63.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/08\/Picture2-5-300x27.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/08\/Picture2-5-768x69.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/08\/Picture2-5.png 1327w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/99;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-team-yes-on-industrial-production\"><strong>\u201cTeam Yes\u201d On Industrial Production<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Industrial production is expected to post an increase of 1.5% year over year and I don\u2019t think a big miss is in the cards, although I do think that it can significantly beat to the upside. I like the <a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/?loginType=1&amp;forwardTo=100&amp;clt=0&amp;ip2loc=OFF#\/market-details?id=751047561%7C20250815%7C-1\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u201cYeses\u201d<\/a> from -1% all the way up to 0.5%, which are ranging from $0.96 to $0.85 in cost.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"511\" height=\"638\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/08\/Picture3-4.png\" alt=\"US Industrial Production July 2025 Contracts\" class=\"wp-image-228920 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/08\/Picture3-4.png 511w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/08\/Picture3-4-300x375.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 511px) 100vw, 511px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 511px; aspect-ratio: 511\/638;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>S<em>ource for Images: ForecastEx<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of August 14, 2025.<\/em>&nbsp;<em>Red circle around the thresholds was inserted by J. Torres to highlight his preferred \u201cYes\u201d answers throughout different levels.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders\u2019 Academy video&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=ceR-weGZSXc\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>here<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Retail sales is expected to post an increase of 0.5% month over month for the month of July but my estimate is way higher at 0.8%. Meanwhile, I don\u2019t think the number comes in below 0% or above 2.7% so I like the risk-reward profiles of the \u201cYes\u201d at $0.89 and the \u201cNo\u201d at 2.7% for $0.96.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":903,"featured_media":228924,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[18929,18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[],"contributors-categories":[13760],"class_list":{"0":"post-228916","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-forecast-trader","8":"category-macro","9":"category-north-america","10":"category-region","11":"category-securities","12":"category-text-articles","13":"category-traders-insight","14":"contributors-categories-ibkr-macroeconomics"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.4) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Retail Sales, Industrial Production Trade Ideas That Expire Tomorrow Morning: Aug. 14, 2025<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Retail sales is expected to post an increase of 0.5% month over month for the month of July but my estimate is way higher at 0.8%. 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Meanwhile, I don\u2019t think the number comes in below 0% or above 2.7% so I like the risk-reward profiles of the \u201cYes\u201d at $0.89 and the \u201cNo\u201d at 2.7% for $0.96.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/forecast-trader\/retail-sales-industrial-production-trade-ideas-that-expire-tomorrow-morning-aug-14-2025\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"IBKR Campus US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2025-08-14T17:07:17+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2025-08-14T18:41:11+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/08\/retail-sales-online-shopping-featured-img.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1000\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"563\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta 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