{"id":228879,"date":"2025-08-14T09:23:59","date_gmt":"2025-08-14T13:23:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=228879"},"modified":"2025-08-14T10:44:16","modified_gmt":"2025-08-14T14:44:16","slug":"chart-advisor-rate-cuts-ahead","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/chart-advisor-rate-cuts-ahead\/","title":{"rendered":"Chart Advisor: Rate Cuts Ahead?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

By\u00a0Todd Stankiewicz CMT, CFP, ChFC<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

1\/\u00a0Rate Cuts Ahead?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

2\/ Sector Rotation Signals from RRGs<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

3\/ GLD Weekly Chart – Bollinger Band Analysis<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investopedia is partnering with CMT Association on this newsletter. \u00a0The contents of this newsletter are for informational and educational purposes only, however, and do not constitute investing advice. The guest authors, which may sell research to investors, and may trade or hold positions in securities mentioned herein do not represent the views of CMT Association or Investopedia. Please consult a financial advisor for investment recommendations and services.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

1\/<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Rate Cuts Ahead?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

This week\u2019s CPI report came in slightly below expectations, but Core CPI was a touch hotter than forecast. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

 
Despite that, the market has doubled down on its rate cut bets. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \n
  • September:<\/strong>\u00a0Nearly 100% chance of a 25 bps cut\u00a0<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • October:<\/strong>\u00a0Another cut priced in\u00a0<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • December:<\/strong>\u00a0A third cut expected\u00a0<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • Total:<\/strong>\u00a0Three cuts in 2025 now baked into expectations\u00a0<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n

    The optimism is clear and equities are rallying, yields are easing, and traders are talking about a Santa Claus rally<\/strong> before we\u2019ve even hit fall. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

    But here\u2019s the risk:<\/strong> <\/p>\n\n\n\n

    If the Fed doesn\u2019t match this script, sentiment could flip fast. That could mean sharp volatility, failed breakouts, and a quick test of support levels. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

    From a technical perspective:<\/strong> <\/p>\n\n\n\n

      \n
    • Short-term momentum is strong, but extended\u00a0<\/li>\n\n\n\n
    • Key resistance is forming near recent highs\u00a0<\/li>\n\n\n\n
    • Treasury 2-year yield is the cleanest read on rate cut conviction\u00a0<\/li>\n\n\n\n
    • Any disappointment from the Fed could trigger a momentum unwind\u00a0<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n

      What to watch into September:<\/strong> <\/p>\n\n\n\n

        \n
      • FOMC statement and dot plot for validation of cut expectations\u00a0<\/li>\n\n\n\n
      • Price action around major equity index resistance\u00a0<\/li>\n\n\n\n
      • Bond market shifts, especially in the short end of the curve\u00a0<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n

        The bottom line:<\/strong> <\/p>\n\n\n\n

        The market is trading on a dovish story, not confirmed policy. That can work in the short term, but if the Fed blinks, technical setups could reverse quickly. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

        2\/<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

        Sector Rotation Signals from RRGs\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

        \"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

        If you\u2019ve followed my work, you know I\u2019m a big fan of Relative Rotation Graphs (RRGs). 
        They\u2019re one of the best ways to visualize sector performance relative to a benchmark, in this case, the S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP). <\/p>\n\n\n\n

        By focusing on equal weight sectors, we strip out mega-cap distortions and get a cleaner read on broad market rotation. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

        Current observations:<\/strong> <\/p>\n\n\n\n

          \n
        • Consumer Discretionary<\/strong>\u00a0is ramping into the\u00a0Leading<\/em>\u00a0quadrant \u2014 a sign of improving breadth beyond just tech.\u00a0<\/li>\n\n\n\n
        • Healthcare<\/strong>\u00a0is moving from\u00a0Lagging<\/em>\u00a0toward\u00a0Improving<\/em>, and because it\u2019s already on the outer edge of the RRG, this rotation could be powerful. This sector is both undervalued and largely unloved.\u00a0<\/li>\n\n\n\n
        • Utilities<\/strong>\u00a0are turning clockwise from\u00a0Weakening<\/em>\u00a0into\u00a0Leading<\/em>\u00a0, driven by defensive demand and potential profitability tied to infrastructure build-outs.\u00a0<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n

          Why utilities matter here:<\/strong> <\/p>\n\n\n\n

            \n
          • They benefit from federal infrastructure initiatives and deregulation themes.\u00a0<\/li>\n\n\n\n
          • Utility infrastructure is critical for AI growth initiatives, creating a secular tailwind.\u00a0<\/li>\n\n\n\n
          • The sector\u2019s leadership is not just defensive, it\u2019s tied to real earnings potential.\u00a0<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n

            Key technical takeaways:<\/strong> <\/p>\n\n\n\n

              \n
            • Rotation strength in Consumer Discretionary suggests buyers are broadening out beyond tech leadership.\u00a0<\/li>\n\n\n\n
            • Healthcare\u2019s positioning offers a potential contrarian opportunity.\u00a0<\/li>\n\n\n\n
            • Utilities could surprise with both price momentum and fundamental support.\u00a0<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n

              The bottom line:<\/strong> <\/p>\n\n\n\n

              Sector rotation is gaining complexity, and opportunity. Watching the RRGs gives us a potential edge in spotting these shifts before they\u2019re obvious on price charts. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

              3\/<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

              GLD Weekly Chart – Bollinger Band Analysis<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

              \"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

              The weekly chart of GLD<\/strong> shows a strong, sustained uptrend that began in early 2023. Price has moved from roughly $170<\/strong> to around $308<\/strong>, an 81% gain over about 2.5 years, with a clear stair-step pattern of higher highs and higher lows. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

              Current technical picture:<\/strong> <\/p>\n\n\n\n

                \n
              • Trend:<\/strong>\u00a0Strong uptrend remains intact, with price holding above the middle Bollinger Band for most of the rally.\u00a0<\/li>\n\n\n\n
              • Bollinger Band position:<\/strong>\u00a0Price is near the upper band and has been oscillating between the middle and upper bands \u2014 typical in persistent bullish trends.\u00a0<\/li>\n\n\n\n
              • Consolidation:<\/strong>\u00a0Since May 2025, GLD has traded in a tight range between\u00a0$300\u2013$316<\/strong>, forming a potential continuation base after a sharp rally.\u00a0<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n

                Support levels:<\/strong> <\/p>\n\n\n\n

                  \n
                • Primary: $300\u2013$305 (recent bounce zone)\u00a0<\/li>\n\n\n\n
                • Secondary: $280 (March 2025 breakout level)\u00a0<\/li>\n\n\n\n
                • Major: $245\u2013$250 (late 2024 consolidation area)\u00a0<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n

                  Resistance levels:<\/strong> <\/p>\n\n\n\n

                    \n
                  • Immediate: $316 (June 2025 high)\u00a0<\/li>\n\n\n\n
                  • Psychological: $320 (round-number resistance)\u00a0<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n

                    Probability assessment:<\/strong> <\/p>\n\n\n\n

                      \n
                    • Bias:<\/strong>\u00a0Higher probability of an upside breakout following consolidation\n
                        \n
                      • Trend strength remains high\u00a0<\/li>\n\n\n\n
                      • Price consistently above the middle Bollinger Band\u00a0<\/li>\n\n\n\n
                      • Pullbacks remain shallow and are quickly bought\u00a0<\/li>\n\n\n\n
                      • Macro backdrop supports gold in periods of uncertainty and inflation concern\u00a0<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n
                      • Risks:<\/strong>\n
                          \n
                        • Momentum has eased during consolidation\u00a0<\/li>\n\n\n\n
                        • A decisive break below $300 could open a retest of $280\u00a0<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n

                          Bottom line:<\/strong> 
                          The technical structure favors continuation of the uptrend, but a clean close below $300 would shift focus to deeper support. For now, the path of least resistance remains to the upside.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

                          —<\/p>\n\n\n\n

                          Originally posted 14th August 2025<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

                          By\u00a0Todd Stankiewicz CMT, CFP, ChFC 1\/\u00a0Rate Cuts Ahead? 2\/ Sector Rotation Signals from RRGs 3\/ GLD Weekly Chart – Bollinger Band Analysis Investopedia is partnering with CMT Association on this newsletter. \u00a0The contents of this newsletter are for informational and educational purposes only, however, and do not constitute investing advice. The guest authors, which may […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":186,"featured_media":228880,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"footnotes":""},"categories":[21,14,18,6,8,9,22,23,26,3],"tags":[7124,14272,2087,7267,16127,15501,15675,15486,16128,15789],"contributors-categories":[13686],"class_list":{"0":"post-228879","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-commodities","8":"category-etfs","9":"category-macro","10":"category-north-america","11":"category-region","12":"category-securities","13":"category-stocks","14":"category-technical-analysis","15":"category-text-articles","16":"category-traders-insight","17":"tag-bollinger-band","18":"tag-cpi-report","19":"tag-gld","20":"tag-invesco-sp-500-equal-weight-etf-rsp","21":"tag-rspd","22":"tag-rspf","23":"tag-rspg","24":"tag-rspn","25":"tag-rsps","26":"tag-rspt","27":"contributors-categories-investopedia"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nChart Advisor: Rate Cuts Ahead? 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