{"id":228846,"date":"2025-08-13T12:41:08","date_gmt":"2025-08-13T16:41:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=228846"},"modified":"2025-08-13T12:52:54","modified_gmt":"2025-08-13T16:52:54","slug":"vixed-signals-market-calm-or-market-trap","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/podcasts\/ibkr-podcasts\/vixed-signals-market-calm-or-market-trap\/","title":{"rendered":"VIXed Signals: Market Calm or Market Trap?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In this week\u2019s midweek market update, Scott Bauer joins Jeff Praissman to break down the VIX\u2019s sharp drop below 15 and what it could mean for investor sentiment. From retail earnings to the upcoming Jackson Hole symposium, they explore whether today\u2019s market calm is a sign of stability\u2014or the setup for a sudden shake-up.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<iframe title=\"VIXed Signals: Market Calm or Market Trap?\" allowtransparency=\"true\" height=\"150\" width=\"100%\" style=\"border: none; min-width: min(100%, 430px);height:150px;\" scrolling=\"no\" data-name=\"pb-iframe-player\" src=\"https:\/\/www.podbean.com\/player-v2\/?i=4bgmb-1931dfb-pb&#038;from=pb6admin&#038;share=1&#038;download=1&#038;rtl=0&#038;fonts=Arial&#038;skin=1b1b1b&#038;font-color=ffffff&#038;logo_link=episode_page&#038;btn-skin=c73a3a\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/iframe>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-summary-ibkr-podcasts-ep-284\">Summary \u2013 IBKR Podcasts Ep. 284<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>The following is a summary of a live audio recording and may contain errors in spelling or grammar. Although IBKR has edited for clarity no material changes have been made<\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-jeff-praissman\">Jeff Praissman\u00a0<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Hi everyone, this is Jeff Praissman with Interactive Brokers. It&#8217;s my pleasure to welcome back to the IBKR Podcast Studio Scott Bauer from Prosper Trading. Hey Scott, how are you?\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-scott-bauer\">Scott Bauer\u00a0<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Jeff, never better. How are you?\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-jeff-praissman-0\">Jeff Praissman\u00a0<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">I&#8217;m great. I love having you come in on our Wednesday midweek market podcast.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">And for our listeners, Scott Bauer is the CEO of Prosper Trading. You can find more from him on our website, as well as at prospertrading.com. But you know what, let&#8217;s just get to it. As we always do, we\u2019ll talk about the past five days and look ahead.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Looking back from last week, the S&amp;P 500 rebounded pretty sharply after the previous week&#8217;s sell-off. What factors do you believe contributed most to this recovery?&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-scott-bauer-0\">Scott Bauer\u00a0<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">I really think there are three things. Number one, the potential de-escalation between Russia and Ukraine\u2014the talks that President Trump is going to have with Putin. That took a little edge off the market.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Number two, the tariff situation is probably not as bad as many people had anticipated.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">And number three, the CPI report. Even though CPI bumped up a little bit, it was not worse than people had expected, and the market really took that in a pretty positive light.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-jeff-praissman-1\">Jeff Praissman\u00a0<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Is it fair to say these are three pretty positive things\u2014more of a shift in investor sentiment versus technical positioning?\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-scott-bauer-1\">Scott Bauer\u00a0<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Oh, it certainly seems like it. I think if you look at some of the retail option flow, especially, it\u2019s bullish.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-jeff-praissman-2\">Jeff Praissman\u00a0<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">And we\u2014I know the VIX is near and dear to your heart\u2014and we saw it last week fall below 15 again after spiking above 22 earlier in the month. What does this rapid volatility compression tell us about institutional positioning and the risk appetite in the current market?\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-scott-bauer-2\">Scott Bauer\u00a0<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Institutionally, there is complacency out there that we hear about all the time. I would tell you that&#8217;s different than what traders on the floor are thinking and other traders that I know. The complacency scares them.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">On the institutional side though, with the VIX down here below 16\u2014and I know it actually fell into the 14 handle\u2014boy, that is the lowest we have seen in a really long time. Again, that just shows that maybe the wall of worry we had earlier in the year is no longer there. I think that\u2019s something to really watch for.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-jeff-praissman-3\">Jeff Praissman\u00a0<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">And speaking of the VIX, we spoke offline\u2014what have you seen today?\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-scott-bauer-3\">Scott Bauer\u00a0<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">For the first time in a while, we&#8217;re starting to see some pretty heavy upside call buying into the VIX. Not just August or September, but actually now going out to October and November. Perhaps that is positioning based on the next Fed meeting in September\u2014who knows what&#8217;s going to happen there.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">So I think, for the first time here, maybe as we just talked about, some of that institutional positioning, which has been really complacent and really bearish vs. bullish market, maybe they\u2019re now starting to hedge a little bit.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-jeff-praissman-4\">Jeff Praissman\u00a0<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">We looked back, and I want to look ahead next\u2014maybe say eight to 10 days. We&#8217;re chugging through earnings season, but we have retail earnings coming up on the calendar over the next 10 days with Walmart, Target, and Home Depot all reporting. What metrics are you going to be looking for within these stocks?\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-scott-bauer-4\">Scott Bauer\u00a0<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">I think it\u2019s going to be really interesting to see what these big guys say about the consumer. There are some reports just out recently that say 42% of consumers report buying fewer products\u2014not just fewer products, but trading down a little bit. So maybe they would buy one brand, but now they\u2019re buying the generic brand.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In fact, 27% in this study say consumers are switching to generic brands. I think the pattern of the consumer is going to be really important\u2014not just for what they did this past quarter, but for what the big retailers\u2014the Walmarts, Targets, Home Depots\u2014say about what they may see. And of course, the tariff impact.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-jeff-praissman-5\">Jeff Praissman\u00a0<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Summers are usually a little bit slower\u2014though this summer seems to be an anomaly\u2014but we are heading into a traditionally low-volume period in late August. If that holds true, how would reduced liquidity affect market movements, especially if we get some unexpected news, which we seem to always get during this timeframe?\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-scott-bauer-5\">Scott Bauer\u00a0<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Absolutely\u2014if there\u2019s an event that really affects the market and we\u2019re in one of these lower-volume scenarios, you could see a bigger move than expected just because of the lower liquidity. They call it the \u201cdog days of August.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">But don\u2019t forget, we\u2019ve got Jackson Hole coming up next week and what may come out of there. We all know the focus on Jerome Powell is pretty solid right now.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-jeff-praissman-6\">Jeff Praissman\u00a0<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">That leads me perfectly into my last question. With the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium coming up on August 22nd, what messages from the Fed Chair could significantly move markets, and how are sophisticated investors positioning ahead of this key event?\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-scott-bauer-6\">Scott Bauer\u00a0<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">I think they have to be a bit cautious. We\u2019ve seen\u2014I\u2019m not going to say hawkish\u2014commentary from Jerome Powell. He has stuck to the mantra of watching the jobs data and watching signs of tariff-driven inflation. The Fed definitely has more data now than they did at the last announcement, so I think this is going to be really pivotal to hear what he has to say.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The market\u2019s certainly going to be watching for any cue that maybe he\u2019s shifted to a little bit more dovish stance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-jeff-praissman-7\">Jeff Praissman\u00a0\u00a0<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Scott, this was great. We always appreciate you swinging by for our Wednesday podcast. For more from Scott, you can visit our site, go to Education, look for past podcasts, or go to prospertrading.com and check out Scott and his team there.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-scott-bauer-7\">Scott Bauer\u00a0<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Thanks a lot for having me, Jeff. I\u2019ll see you a couple of Wednesdays from now.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-\"><\/h5>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In this week\u2019s midweek market update, Scott Bauer joins Jeff Praissman to break down the VIX\u2019s sharp drop below 15 and what it could mean for investor sentiment. From retail earnings to the upcoming Jackson Hole symposium, they explore whether today\u2019s market calm is a sign of stability\u2014or the setup for a sudden shake-up.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":914,"featured_media":228847,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[10842,13857],"tags":[446,20462,17763,7590,20463,10676,20461,20464,3598,10995,4574,20356,12524,18379,11121,18440,20460,317,18397,19738],"contributors-categories":[13576,16315],"class_list":["post-228846","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-ibkr-podcasts","category-podcasts","tag-federal-reserve","tag-home-depot-earnings","tag-interactive-brokers-podcast","tag-investor-sentiment","tag-jackson-hole-2025","tag-jerome-powell","tag-low-vix","tag-market-calm","tag-market-outlook","tag-market-volatility","tag-options-trading","tag-prosper-trading","tag-retail-earnings","tag-scott-bauer","tag-stock-market-analysis","tag-stock-market-podcast","tag-target-earnings","tag-vix","tag-volatility-index","tag-walmart-earnings","contributors-categories-interactive-brokers","contributors-categories-prosper-trading-academy"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v28.3) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>VIXed Signals: Market Calm or Market Trap? | IBKR Podcasts<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"In this week\u2019s midweek market update, Scott Bauer joins Jeff Praissman to break down the VIX\u2019s sharp drop below 15 and what it could mean for...\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/228846\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"VIXed Signals: Market Calm or Market Trap? | IBKR Campus US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"In this week\u2019s midweek market update, Scott Bauer joins Jeff Praissman to break down the VIX\u2019s sharp drop below 15 and what it could mean for investor sentiment. 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