{"id":228820,"date":"2025-08-13T10:15:00","date_gmt":"2025-08-13T14:15:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=228820"},"modified":"2025-08-13T11:01:38","modified_gmt":"2025-08-13T15:01:38","slug":"the-us-post-election-year-suggests-a-stronger-seasonal-decline","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/technical-analysis\/the-us-post-election-year-suggests-a-stronger-seasonal-decline\/","title":{"rendered":"The US Post-Election Year Suggests a Stronger Seasonal Decline"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Dear Investor,<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As\u00a0<em>a Seasonax\u00a0<\/em>user, you\u2019re familiar with seasonal charts. They depict the average price movement depending on the season.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But you can differentiate even further. Individual years in the four-year US cycle have a typical pattern. The four-year cycle is also called the election cycle.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The US presidential election took place last November . The current year, 2025, is therefore a post-election year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The election, in turn, influences stock prices even beyond election day. For the markets, the year of the four-year election cycle we are in is crucial.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-the-4-year-cycle-has-a-lasting-impact-on-the-markets\">The 4-year cycle has a lasting impact on the markets<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The phenomenon known as the 4-year election cycle does not differentiate according to the winning party, but rather according to the year of the presidency.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The reason is suspected to be fiscal and monetary policy measures, which are influenced by politicians and monetary policy depending on the election. Presidents want to be re-elected or want a successor from their party and this results in some repeated fiscal patterns.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-the-typical-course-of-the-post-election-year\">The typical course of the post-election year<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The chart now shows you the average performance of the S&amp;P 500 for only the post-election years. It is, in a sense, a seasonal chart, calculated&nbsp;<em>only from the prices of every fourth year<\/em>, the post-election years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The chart shows you at a glance how the S&amp;P 500 typically performs in the post-election year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-s-amp-p-500-typical-post-election-performance-1928-to-2025\">S&amp;P 500, typical post-election performance, 1928 to 2025<\/h5>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.seasonax.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/SeasonalTrend_SP500_Post-Election-Years_Seasonax-1.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-20341 lazyload\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong>September is particularly weak.&nbsp;<\/strong>Source:&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.seasonax.com\/\">Seasonax<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>You can see how the prices peak at the turn of the month from July to August and then fall (see arrow on chart). September is particularly weak.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>September is a weak month even in the normal course of the year, but this is now confirmed for the US post-election year as well. Moreover, prices remain at a lower average level in the post-election year.&nbsp;&nbsp;Furthermore,&nbsp;&nbsp;an autumn rally like in other years is unlikely to occur.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>However, as an investor, you don\u2019t need to despair. You can also consider other investments like gold, or short positions, or focus even more on seasonally good instruments when selecting stocks. The&nbsp;<em>Seasonax screener&nbsp;<\/em>and our suggestions on the&nbsp;<em>Seasonax website&nbsp;<\/em>will help you with this.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-use-the-nbsp-filter-function\">Use the<a>&nbsp;<\/a>filter function!<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Seasonax&nbsp;<\/em>offers you more than just annual seasonality. If you want to know how an instrument performs in a four-year cycle or another cycle, you should use&nbsp;<em>Seasonax\u2019s filter function&nbsp;<\/em>!<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-filter-function-on-seasonax-with-marked-election-cycle\">Filter function on Seasonax, with marked election cycle<\/h5>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.seasonax.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Presidential-Election-Filter-Seasonax-1.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-20330 lazyload\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong>One click to the election cycle.&nbsp;<\/strong>Source:&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.seasonax.com\/\">Seasonax<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>This allows you to quickly see not only the annual seasonality but also the typical trend of special years such as the post-election year for all instruments with just a few clicks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Try it out!<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8212;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Originally Posted on August 13, 2025 &#8211; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.seasonax.com\/election-cycle-us-post-election-year-decline-sp500\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">The US Post-Election Year Suggests a Stronger Seasonal Decline<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p> Individual years in the four-year US cycle have a typical pattern. The four-year cycle is also called the election cycle.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":577,"featured_media":191781,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5,6,8,9,23,26,3],"tags":[],"contributors-categories":[13716],"class_list":{"0":"post-228820","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-europe-middle-east-africa","8":"category-north-america","9":"category-region","10":"category-securities","11":"category-technical-analysis","12":"category-text-articles","13":"category-traders-insight","14":"contributors-categories-seasonax"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.4) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>The US Post-Election Year Suggests a Stronger Seasonal Decline<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Individual years in the four-year US cycle have a typical pattern. 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