{"id":228811,"date":"2025-08-13T09:24:11","date_gmt":"2025-08-13T13:24:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=228811"},"modified":"2025-08-13T12:26:58","modified_gmt":"2025-08-13T16:26:58","slug":"chart-advisor-can-bitcoin-finally-break-out","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/chart-advisor-can-bitcoin-finally-break-out\/","title":{"rendered":"Chart Advisor: Can Bitcoin Finally Break Out?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

By\u00a0Todd Stankiewicz CMT, CFP, ChFC<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

1\/\u00a0Uranium\u2019s Technical Setup: Riding the Upper Bollinger Band<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

2\/\u00a0Can Bitcoin Finally Break Out?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

3\/ How Low Can the Dollar Go?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investopedia is partnering with CMT Association on this newsletter. \u00a0The contents of this newsletter are for informational and educational purposes only, however, and do not constitute investing advice. The guest authors, which may sell research to investors, and may trade or hold positions in securities mentioned herein do not represent the views of CMT Association or Investopedia. Please consult a financial advisor for investment recommendations and services.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

1\/<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Uranium\u2019s Technical Setup: Riding the Upper Bollinger Band<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Back in June, I highlighted uranium\u2019s breakout above the upper Bollinger Band as an early sign of sector strength. Since then, the move hasn\u2019t faded, uranium continues to ride that upper band, showing strong, persistent momentum. The Global X Uranium ETF (URA) is leading the charge, supported by recent executive actions promoting deregulation in nuclear energy and what some are calling a \u201cnuclear renaissance.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This setup is similar to 2020, when uranium broke above its upper band and stayed there for almost a year. Back then, URA moved from about $12 to $26  a share, marking a significant rally. Today\u2019s move could be the start of another leg higher.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Trend Continuation Potential<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \n
  • Momentum: Three consecutive monthly green candles (June\u2013August 2025), each larger than the last. Breakout cleared the 2023\u20132024 range with volume supporting the move.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • Structure: A multi-year base from 2016\u20132020 preceded the 2020\u20132021 surge from $8.69 to $26.86 (209% gain). The current breakout has similar traits.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • Bollinger Bands: Widening bands suggest the trend is strengthening, with no clear bearish divergences. Monthly candles have minimal upper wicks, signaling conviction.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n

    Key Considerations<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      \n
    • Risk Management: URA\u2019s rapid move from $25 to over $40 could prompt healthy consolidation. A monthly close below $32.50 would be the first warning sign.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
    • Targets: Historical price action points to $50\u2013$55 as a realistic upside zone if fundamentals stay supportive.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
    • Long-Term: Despite the rally, URA remains well below its 2011 highs. The 2016\u20132020 base provides a strong foundation for further gains.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n

      Bottom Line<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

      Uranium\u2019s technical picture remains bullish. Riding the upper Bollinger Band like this is positive and, historically, has preceded extended rallies. While short-term pauses are likely after such a sharp move, momentum and sector fundamentals suggest the trend could carry significantly higher, as long as key support levels hold.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      2\/<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

      Can Bitcoin Finally Break Out?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

      \"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

      Over the past month, Bitcoin has tried to break above the $120,000 level two or three times. Each attempt has been met with selling pressure, pushing the price back down. At the same time, Bitcoin has found reliable support near $111,000, a level that served as resistance in May 2025 and was successfully retested as support in August.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      This creates a clear trading range between $111K and $120K. Until one side breaks, we\u2019re likely to see more back-and-forth inside these boundaries.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      Technically, here\u2019s what stands out:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

        \n
      • Resistance<\/em>: $120K is now a well-defined ceiling. A clean break and hold above it would mark a major bullish development.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
      • Support:<\/em>\u00a0$111K is proving to be a solid floor and could serve as the base for the next move higher.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
      • Range-Bound Risk:<\/em>\u00a0The current setup suggests Bitcoin may continue consolidating between these levels in the near term.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n

        The recent push higher has been supported by headlines around cryptocurrency deregulation and favorable legislation. That said, this may be a case of \u201cbuy the rumor, sell the news.\u201d Markets often run up ahead of expected good news, then see profit-taking when the news becomes official. The real test will be whether this regulatory shift can provide enough fuel for Bitcoin to decisively clear resistance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

        For a confirmed breakout:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

          \n
        • Watch for a weekly close above $120K.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
        • That breakout needs to hold without quickly falling back into the range.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
        • Failure to hold would risk another sharp rejection.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n

          For risk management:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

            \n
          • Patience is key. Forcing trades inside a range can lead to frustration.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
          • If $120K breaks with conviction, new highs are possible.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
          • If $111K fails, expect a deeper pullback before the next leg higher.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n

            Bottom line: Bitcoin\u2019s setup is constructive but unresolved. The levels are clear, the macro backdrop is improving, and the market is waiting for confirmation. When that comes, there should be plenty of opportunity to participate in the next big move, whichever direction it goes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

            3\/<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

            How Low Can the Dollar Go?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

            \"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

            The Weakening U.S. Dollar: Investment Implications<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

            A key theme throughout 2025 has been the steady weakening of the U.S. dollar. After hitting multi-year highs, the dollar has slid to levels not seen since 2022, unwinding much of the strength that began with the breakout from the 2020\u20132021 lows.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

            The technical setup has shifted meaningfully. The round 100 level, once a critical support zone, has now flipped into overhead resistance. Until the dollar can reclaim and hold above that mark, the bias leans toward continued weakness.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

            Technically, here\u2019s what stands out:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

              \n
            • Multi-Year Shift:<\/em>\u00a0The dollar\u2019s move from highs to lows represents a complete reversal of the 2022\u20132024 uptrend.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
            • Resistance at 100:<\/em>\u00a0Formerly strong support now acts as a ceiling. A break above would signal a potential trend change.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
            • Lower Bias:<\/em>\u00a0Without a move back above 100, the path of least resistance remains to the downside.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n

              From an investment perspective, a weaker U.S. dollar has broad implications across asset classes. When the dollar loses value, non U.S. dollar denominated assets often outperform as their local currency values strengthen relative to the dollar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

              Potential beneficiaries of continued dollar weakness:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

                \n
              • International Equities:<\/em>\u00a0Gains are amplified when foreign markets rise in their own currency and the dollar falls.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
              • Non\u2013USD Bonds:<\/em>\u00a0Foreign currency denominated fixed income sees additional return from currency appreciation.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
              • Commodities:<\/em>\u00a0Many commodities are priced in U.S. dollars, so a weaker dollar often translates to higher prices in dollar terms.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n

                This dynamic may already be influencing performance in 2025. International equities have been among the stronger performers this year, and several commodity markets have seen notable rallies. While global fundamentals play a role, the tailwind from currency weakness can\u2019t be ignored.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

                Key Watchpoints Going Forward:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

                  \n
                • A sustained break above 100 on the dollar index could shift the trend back to neutral or bullish.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
                • Continued weakness could extend the run in international markets and commodities into 2026.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
                • Any policy or rate shifts from the Federal Reserve could quickly change the currency backdrop.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n

                  Bottom line: The weakening dollar is more than just a currency story, it\u2019s an investment theme that\u2019s quietly shaping returns across multiple markets. As long as the dollar remains capped under 100, investors should keep positioning for assets that benefit from its decline.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

                  —<\/p>\n\n\n\n

                  Originally posted 13th August 2025<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

                  By\u00a0Todd Stankiewicz CMT, CFP, ChFC 1\/\u00a0Uranium\u2019s Technical Setup: Riding the Upper Bollinger Band 2\/\u00a0Can Bitcoin Finally Break Out? 3\/ How Low Can the Dollar Go? Investopedia is partnering with CMT Association on this newsletter. \u00a0The contents of this newsletter are for informational and educational purposes only, however, and do not constitute investing advice. The guest […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":186,"featured_media":228813,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"footnotes":""},"categories":[21,14,16727,16,18,6,8,9,22,23,26,3],"tags":[410,4676,6516,186],"contributors-categories":[13686],"class_list":{"0":"post-228811","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-commodities","8":"category-etfs","9":"category-etps","10":"category-forex","11":"category-macro","12":"category-north-america","13":"category-region","14":"category-securities","15":"category-stocks","16":"category-technical-analysis","17":"category-text-articles","18":"category-traders-insight","19":"tag-bitcoin","20":"tag-bollinger-bands","21":"tag-uranium","22":"tag-usd","23":"contributors-categories-investopedia"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nChart Advisor: Can Bitcoin Finally Break Out?<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The Global X Uranium ETF (URA) is leading the charge, supported by recent executive actions promoting deregulation in nuclear energy and what some are...\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/228811\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Chart Advisor: Can Bitcoin Finally Break Out? 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