{"id":228780,"date":"2025-08-12T13:02:22","date_gmt":"2025-08-12T17:02:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=228780"},"modified":"2025-08-13T05:11:53","modified_gmt":"2025-08-13T09:11:53","slug":"meeting-expectations-is-good-enough","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/meeting-expectations-is-good-enough\/","title":{"rendered":"Meeting Expectations is Good Enough"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This morning, in the immediate aftermath of the highly anticipated CPI report, I received a series of news alerts on my phone.&nbsp; One was a \u201cglass half-full\u201d message, another was \u201cglass half-empty\u201d.&nbsp; Any guesses about how the stock market interpreted the data?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Glass half-empty: \u201cCore inflation rose by the most in six months in July as price pressures remained sticky.\u201d&nbsp; (Yahoo Finance)<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Glass half-full: \u201cInflation remains at 2.7% in July.&nbsp; Tariff effects are still modest.\u201d&nbsp; (Barron\u2019s)<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>The instant market interpretation: \u201cStocks and bonds rose after the latest US inflation reading bolstered speculation the Fed will soon be able to cut rates.\u201d&nbsp; (Bloomberg)<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Anyone who has been paying attention to stocks this year, or most of this decade, for that matter, knows that stocks don\u2019t need much impetus to move higher.&nbsp; An as-expected report was clearly sufficient.&nbsp; The monthly and yearly changes are reported with one digit to the right of the decimal point, so the respective 0.2% and 0.3% increases on monthly headline and core CPI were exactly in-line with consensus.&nbsp; There were slight divergences on the yearly data, with the 2.7% rise on the yearly headline data coming in better than the 2.8% consensus while the 3.1% yearly rise in the core was 0.1% above the 3.0% consensus.&nbsp; As long as prices didn\u2019t seem to rise faster than expected, that was a go-ahead for another leg of the rally.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Indeed, while expectations for rate cuts solidified, it\u2019s not as though they weren\u2019t already lofty beforehand.&nbsp; According to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cmegroup.com\/markets\/interest-rates\/cme-fedwatch-tool.html\">CME FedWatch data<\/a>, there is a roughly 97% expectation for a 25 basis point cut at the FOMC\u2019s meeting on September 17<sup>th<\/sup>.&nbsp; But that is up from about 88% yesterday.&nbsp; We went from a near likelihood to an even greater likelihood.&nbsp; As for the December meeting, expectations remain firm for at least two cuts, with expectations for a third rising from 29% to 45%.&nbsp; In a momentum-driven, somewhat euphoric market, those modestly increased likelihoods are enough for a nearly 1% rise in the S&amp;P 500 (SPX).&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">(The <a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/#\/market-details?id=658663572%7C20250917%7C4.125&amp;detail=contract_details\">markets on IBKR ForecastTrader<\/a> show a bit more skepticism, with 22% saying that the Fed Funds target will be above 4.125% in September and 28% saying \u201cno\u201d to a rate above 3.625%)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Short-term rates echoed the incremental change in rate cut probabilities.&nbsp; The 2-year Treasury yield fell by a quick 7bp immediately after the CPI report but settled into a 4bp dip by midday.&nbsp; Longer rates offered a bit of a head-fake, however.&nbsp; The 10- and 30-year yields each dropped by about 3bp right after the number but reversed to 2bp and 4bp rises shortly thereafter.&nbsp; This further steepens the yield curve.&nbsp; The current spread between 2- and 10-year yields has widened to about 57bp today.&nbsp; That is below the brief spike to 74bp on April 9<sup>th<\/sup> and below the three 60+ spikes that we have seen since then, but it is also well above the 40bp spread that started the month.&nbsp; This relatively stable relationship has not moved enough to impede stocks.&nbsp; Then again, neither was the inverted yield curve that prevailed for nearly two years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">We have frequently noted that momentum-driven stock markets seem to be obeying <a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Newton%27s_laws_of_motion\">Newton\u2019s First Law of Motion<\/a>, paraphrased as: A body in motion remains in motion unless it is acted upon by an external force.&nbsp; Today\u2019s CPI report certainly was an insufficient external force to alter the current trends.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><em>Spread Between 2- and 10-Year Treasury Yields, 6-Months, Daily Candles, with 20-Day Moving Average<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"956\" height=\"632\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/08\/Picture2-4.png\" alt=\"Spread Between 2- and 10-Year Treasury Yields, 6-Months, Daily Candles, with 20-Day Moving Average\" class=\"wp-image-228783 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/08\/Picture2-4.png 956w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/08\/Picture2-4-700x463.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/08\/Picture2-4-300x198.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/08\/Picture2-4-768x508.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 956px) 100vw, 956px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 956px; aspect-ratio: 956\/632;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Source: Bloomberg<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>This morning, in the immediate aftermath of the highly anticipated CPI report, I received a series of news alerts on my phone.  One was a \u201cglass half-full\u201d message, another was \u201cglass half-empty\u201d.  Any guesses about how the stock market interpreted the data?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":228787,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[14700,18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[],"contributors-categories":[13576],"class_list":["post-228780","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-ibkr-market-insights","category-macro","category-north-america","category-region","category-securities","category-text-articles","category-traders-insight","contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v28.4) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Meeting Expectations is Good Enough | Traders&#039; Insight<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"This morning, in the immediate aftermath of the highly anticipated CPI report, I received a series of news alerts on my phone. 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Any guesses about how the stock market interpreted the data?\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/meeting-expectations-is-good-enough\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"IBKR Campus US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2025-08-12T17:02:22+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2025-08-13T09:11:53+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/08\/glass-half-full-featured-img.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1000\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"563\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Steve Sosnick\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta 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