{"id":228763,"date":"2025-08-12T12:46:37","date_gmt":"2025-08-12T16:46:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=228763"},"modified":"2025-08-12T14:58:47","modified_gmt":"2025-08-12T18:58:47","slug":"trade-of-the-day-thursdays-us-ppi-above-2-below-2-9","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/prediction-market\/trade-of-the-day-thursdays-us-ppi-above-2-below-2-9\/","title":{"rendered":"Trade of the Day: Thursday\u2019s US PPI Above 2%, Below 2.9%: Aug. 12, 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>I\u2019m expecting a headline result of 2.4% in this Thursday\u2019s Producer Price Index (PPI), a volatile indicator with a tendency to deviate substantially from forecasts. This means that the number can be way off of the economic consensus projection of 2.5%. Still, of the 18 forecasters surveyed by Reuters, the minimum estimate is 2.3% and the maximum is 2.6%. I agree with the potential range, and when looking for specific thresholds in our prediction market that are consistent with this release, I like the risk-reward profiles of the \u201cYeses\u201d at 1.8% and 2% while also finding the \u201cNos\u201d at 2.8% and 3% attractive. The four levels currently cost $0.95, $0.90, $0.88 and $0.95 for a total of $3.68. The combination trade carries a max risk of $1.85 on a print of 1.8% but would pay $4.00 back on a statistic above 2% or below 2.9%. The path to losing money on this combo is very narrow, in my opinion, with less than 3% chance of happening.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1050\" height=\"763\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/08\/Picture-1-FT-august-12.png\" alt=\"Historical PPI results and pricing of ForecastTrader Contracts.\" class=\"wp-image-228767 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/08\/Picture-1-FT-august-12.png 1050w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/08\/Picture-1-FT-august-12-700x509.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/08\/Picture-1-FT-august-12-300x218.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/08\/Picture-1-FT-august-12-768x558.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1050px) 100vw, 1050px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1050px; aspect-ratio: 1050\/763;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"923\" height=\"78\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/08\/FT-1.png\" alt=\"IBKR ForecastTrader Contract asking if US Producer Price Index will exceed 2.8% in July.\" class=\"wp-image-228768 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/08\/FT-1.png 923w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/08\/FT-1-700x59.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/08\/FT-1-300x25.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/08\/FT-1-768x65.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 923px) 100vw, 923px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 923px; aspect-ratio: 923\/78;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"513\" height=\"644\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/08\/Picture6-1.png\" alt=\"Pricing of various thresholds for IBKR ForecastTrader Contract regarding July Producer Price Index \" class=\"wp-image-228769 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/08\/Picture6-1.png 513w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/08\/Picture6-1-300x377.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 513px) 100vw, 513px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 513px; aspect-ratio: 513\/644;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>S<em>ource for Images: ForecastEx<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of August 12, 2025.<\/em>&nbsp;<em>Red circles around the thresholds were inserted by J. Torres to highlight his preferred \u201cYes\u201d and \u201cNo\u201d answers throughout different levels.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders\u2019 Academy video&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=ceR-weGZSXc\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>here<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>I\u2019m expecting a headline result of 2.4% in this Thursday\u2019s Producer Price Index (PPI), a volatile indicator with a tendency to deviate substantially from forecasts. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":903,"featured_media":218745,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[18929,18,6,9,26,3],"tags":[],"contributors-categories":[13760],"class_list":{"0":"post-228763","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-prediction-market","8":"category-macro","9":"category-north-america","10":"category-securities","11":"category-text-articles","12":"category-traders-insight","13":"contributors-categories-ibkr-macroeconomics"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.8) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Trade of the Day: Thursday\u2019s US PPI 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