{"id":228724,"date":"2025-08-12T11:20:03","date_gmt":"2025-08-12T15:20:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=228724"},"modified":"2025-08-12T11:21:08","modified_gmt":"2025-08-12T15:21:08","slug":"whats-next-for-stocks-into-august-options-expirations","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/ibkr-quant-news\/whats-next-for-stocks-into-august-options-expirations\/","title":{"rendered":"What&#8217;s Next for Stocks into August Options Expirations"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><em>August 11, 2025<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>What does quantitative Market Structure data say happens next to US stocks?<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Quant traders, \u201cmarket structure\u201d is another way to say \u201chow the stock market works.\u201d&nbsp; Let\u2019s take <strong>Demand and Supply<\/strong> at <a href=\"https:\/\/marketstructureedge.com\/\">EDGE<\/a> (key quantitative short-term market measures). On Aug 1, Demand, our 10-point algorithm for measuring buying and selling, topped at 6.0. Supply, which is Reg SHO Rule 201 short volume in the S&amp;P 500, was 52.2%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Yes, more than half the trading volume was short, borrowed. High short volume doesn\u2019t predict a decline. But it DOES tell us about the nature of the money causing prices to rise or fall.&nbsp; More on that in a moment.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>And Demand at 6.0 nearly always means gains stall. Demand last rose to 6.0 Jul 3. SPX was 6,250 then, and 6,210 Aug 1.&nbsp; Flat.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><u>And how about this:&nbsp;<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>On Jul 31, SPX was $6,320.&nbsp; On Aug 8, 6,370 and change.&nbsp; The high price Jul 31 was 6,398. On Aug 8, the market closed at the high price of the day, 6,377, highest price since Jul 31.&nbsp; The midpoint price Jul 31 was 6,351. The midpoint Aug 8 was 6,357. Flat. &nbsp; <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Yes, SPX is up 0.52% since Aug 1. But a closer examination shows price hasn\u2019t moved much as Demand has fallen from 6.0 to 4.6, Supply has risen from 51.9% to 52.7%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>My head is about to explode, you say.&nbsp; Is this going somewhere?&nbsp;<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Yes. The short, sharp spate of volatility Aug 1 when SPX dropped 100 points coincided with <strong>month-end expirations<\/strong> (and the benchmark got it back when they reset Aug 4).&nbsp; <strong>Monthly expirations for August hit stocks this week<\/strong>, the 14<sup>th<\/sup>-15<sup>th<\/sup>, with VIX expirations spilling into the next week on the 20<sup>th<\/sup>.&nbsp; Four times a year generally, we get them in two different weeks.&nbsp; It occurred in Jan and May and will again in October.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>And SPX, the futures contract defining the benchmark, isn\u2019t matching the underlying basket. The average S&amp;P 500 stock has closed below its average midpoint price four days in a row, signaling selling. &nbsp;&nbsp;<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Let\u2019s put it all together.<\/strong>&nbsp; SPX is up since July month-end but only off the Aug 1 low.&nbsp; In the S&amp;P 500 there\u2019s been net selling under the \u201cskin\u201d of the stock market.&nbsp; Demand has fallen to 4.6 and probably bottoms soon, depending on what happens in the next day or two.&nbsp; Supply peaked and ticked down Friday. A day isn\u2019t a trend.&nbsp; And options expire this week.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><u>What does all this tell us about the NATURE of the money behind the market here in August?&nbsp; It\u2019s misleading. Beware.<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>So, what happens next?&nbsp;<\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/ibkr-quant-news\/a-mathematical-turning-point\/\">I wrote last week for the IBKR quant blog<\/a> that the drop Aug 1 was month-end true-ups, and everybody got a step-up Aug 4 out of that. If no new money follows it, the market will decline. Otherwise, the law of large numbers will migrate the market toward the expected outcome, which is up.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Despite what the market shows on the surface, market structure nuts and bolts say no new money followed. <\/strong>If this assessment is correct, the market is about to lurch.&nbsp; Otherwise, it won\u2019t. My confirmation bias is an expectation of a slide \u2013 so my interpretation (my heuristics?) of the data may be skewed!<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>PS \u2013 Visit <a href=\"https:\/\/marketstructureedge.com\/\">marketstructureedge.com<\/a> and sign up for our free daily Market Desk Notes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>What does all this tell us about the NATURE of the money behind the market here in August?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1157,"featured_media":212719,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[339,338,341,9563],"tags":[1006],"contributors-categories":[15343],"class_list":{"0":"post-228724","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-data-science","8":"category-ibkr-quant-news","9":"category-quant-development","10":"category-options-quant","11":"tag-fintech","12":"contributors-categories-market-structure-edge"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.4) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>What&#8217;s Next for Stocks into August Options Expirations<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" 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