{"id":228698,"date":"2025-08-11T12:52:39","date_gmt":"2025-08-11T16:52:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=228698"},"modified":"2025-08-11T15:08:08","modified_gmt":"2025-08-11T19:08:08","slug":"singapore-gdp-forecast-opportunity-team-yes-at-2-6-for-us","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/prediction-market\/singapore-gdp-forecast-opportunity-team-yes-at-2-6-for-us\/","title":{"rendered":"Singapore GDP Forecast Opportunity, \u201cTeam Yes\u201d at 2.6% For US CPI: Aug. 11, 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>The first read on Singapore second-quarter GDP was 4.3% and revisions have been relatively narrow historically speaking. Indeed, tonight\u2019s figure is unlikely to deviate much from the initial, reported on July 14. Going back to the fourth quarter of 2005, the average and median changes in absolute terms have been 0.6% and 0.3%. Against this backdrop, I like the risk-reward profile of the <a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/?loginType=1&amp;forwardTo=100&amp;clt=0&amp;ip2loc=OFF&amp;locale=en_US#\/market-details?id=725452870%7C20250812%7C4\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u201cYes\u201d<\/a> answer at 4%, which costs only $0.15, and I find significantly undervalued. I also find the \u201cYeses\u201d at 3% and 3.5% attractive at $0.89 and $0.84.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"87\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/08\/Singapore-Contract-August-11-FT-1100x87.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-228700 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/08\/Singapore-Contract-August-11-FT-1100x87.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/08\/Singapore-Contract-August-11-FT-700x55.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/08\/Singapore-Contract-August-11-FT-300x24.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/08\/Singapore-Contract-August-11-FT-768x61.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/08\/Singapore-Contract-August-11-FT.png 1228w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/87;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"502\" height=\"483\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/08\/Picture2-pricing-FT-August-11.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-228701 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/08\/Picture2-pricing-FT-August-11.png 502w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/08\/Picture2-pricing-FT-August-11-300x289.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 502px) 100vw, 502px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 502px; aspect-ratio: 502\/483;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u201cTeam Yes\u201d On CPI at 2.6%<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The US Consumer Price Index is widely forecasted and well telegraphed by economists and analysts. Rarely does the annualized figure deviate from the median estimate by more than 0.1%. Tomorrow\u2019s expectation is 2.8%; my projection is 2.76% and I think the \u201cYes\u201d answer at the 2.6% threshold offers an attractive risk-reward profile. I consider it to be a safe play that currently costs $0.91.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"89\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/08\/Picture-3-FT-August-11-1100x89.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-228702 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/08\/Picture-3-FT-August-11-1100x89.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/08\/Picture-3-FT-August-11-700x57.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/08\/Picture-3-FT-August-11-300x24.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/08\/Picture-3-FT-August-11-768x62.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/08\/Picture-3-FT-August-11.png 1330w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/89;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>S<em>ource for Images: ForecastEx<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of August 11, 2025.<\/em>&nbsp;<em>Red circles around the thresholds were inserted by J. Torres to highlight his preferred \u201cYes\u201d answers throughout different levels.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders\u2019 Academy video&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=ceR-weGZSXc\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>here<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The first read on Singapore second-quarter GDP was 4.3% and revisions have been relatively narrow historically speaking. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":903,"featured_media":224820,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[4,18929,18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[],"contributors-categories":[13760],"class_list":{"0":"post-228698","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-asia","8":"category-prediction-market","9":"category-macro","10":"category-north-america","11":"category-region","12":"category-securities","13":"category-text-articles","14":"category-traders-insight","15":"contributors-categories-ibkr-macroeconomics"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.8) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ 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