{"id":228680,"date":"2025-08-11T09:45:00","date_gmt":"2025-08-11T13:45:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=228680"},"modified":"2025-08-12T05:30:43","modified_gmt":"2025-08-12T09:30:43","slug":"weekly-market-recap-week-of-august-11-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/weekly-market-recap-week-of-august-11-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Weekly Market Recap: Week of August 11, 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-the-week-in-review\">The week in review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>New factory orders declined 4.8% m\/m<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Goods and services trade deficit improved to $60bn<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-the-week-ahead\">The week ahead<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>July CPI<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Import price index<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Retail sales<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-thought-of-the-week\">Thought of the Week<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>In the first week of April, President Trump imposed a 10% baseline tariff on nearly every U.S. trading partner, with three clear goals: boost U.S. manufacturing, raise revenue and reduce trade imbalances. Four months in, early signs show progress on the latter two \u2014 though not without consequences.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Since April, the Treasury has collected record tariffs. June alone brought in $27 billion in net tariff revenue, pushing the April\u2013June total to $64 billion \u2014 about 2.6 times higher than a year ago. Despite the levies, goods imports held up, rising 1% y\/y in 2Q25, likely due to front-running in sectors facing impending tariffs. Crucially, and in line with the President\u2019s third goal, the goods trade deficit narrowed by nearly 10% to $265 billion. But the improvement was far from even.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As the chart of the week shows, most of the deficit reduction came from China. Meanwhile, deficits deepened with Taiwan, Vietnam and Thailand \u2014 countries with supply chains closely tied to Chinese manufacturing \u2014 suggesting that, like water finding a new channel, imports are simply flowing through lower-tariff shores. Balance with Canada and Mexico, both USMCA partners, also diverged: the deficit with Mexico widened while shrinking with Canada. This trend may persist as Canada now faces a higher 35% tariff, while Mexico was granted a 90-day reprieve, keeping its rate at 25%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>While tariff-related inflation pressures have remained muted thanks to front-loading, margin compression and inventory buffers, all eyes will be on this week\u2019s CPI print. With a higher 15% baseline tariff now seen in recent trade deals, pass-through risks are rising, potentially limiting the Fed\u2019s room to maneuver.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1007\" height=\"410\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-11-102714.png\" alt=\"Trade deficit improved but not evenly\" class=\"wp-image-228681 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-11-102714.png 1007w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-11-102714-700x285.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-11-102714-300x122.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/08\/Screenshot-2025-08-11-102714-768x313.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1007px) 100vw, 1007px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1007px; aspect-ratio: 1007\/410;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Chart of the Week: Source: U.S. Census Bureau, J.P. Morgan Asset<br>Management. A positive value reflects an improvement in the goods<br>trade balance from 2Q24 to 2Q25, while a negative value reflects<br>worsening.<br>Thought of the week: Source: U.S. Census Bureau, J.P. Morgan Asset<br>Management.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u2014<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Originally Posted August 11, 2025 \u2013\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/am.jpmorgan.com\/us\/en\/asset-management\/adv\/insights\/market-insights\/market-updates\/weekly-market-recap\/\">Weekly Market Recap<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Past performance does not guarantee future results.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Diversification does not guarantee investment returns and does not eliminate the risk of loss.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Opinions and estimates offered constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice, as are statements of financial market trends, which are based on current market conditions. We believe the information provided here is reliable, but do not warrant its accuracy or completeness. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. The views and strategies described may not be appropriate for all investors. This material has been prepared for informational purposes only, and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied on for, accounting, legal or tax advice. References to future returns are not promises or even estimates of actual returns a client portfolio may achieve. Any forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be relied upon as advice or interpreted as a recommendation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Market Insights program provides comprehensive data and commentary on global markets without reference to products. Designed as a tool to help clients understand the markets and support investment decision-making, the program explores the implications of current economic data and changing market conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The J.P. Morgan Asset Management Market Insights and Portfolio Insights programs, as non-independent research, have not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, nor are they subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This document is a general communication being provided for informational purposes only. It is educational in nature and not designed to be taken as advice or a recommendation for any specific investment product, strategy, plan feature<br>or other purpose in any jurisdiction, nor is it a commitment from J.P. Morgan Asset Management or any of its subsidiaries to participate in any of the transactions mentioned herein. Any examples used are generic, hypothetical and for illustration purposes only. This material does not contain sufficient information to support an investment decision and it should not be relied upon by you in evaluating the merits of investing in any securities or products. In addition, users should make an independent assessment of the legal, regulatory, tax, credit, and accounting implications and determine, together with their own financial professional, if any investment mentioned herein is believed to be appropriate to their personal goals. Investors should ensure that they obtain all available relevant information before making any investment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Any forecasts, figures, opinions or investment techniques and strategies set out are for information purposes only, based on certain assumptions and current market conditions and are subject to change without prior notice. All information presented herein is considered to be accurate at the time of production, but no warranty of accuracy is given and no liability in respect of any error or omission is accepted. It should be noted that investment involves risks, the value of investments and the income from them may fluctuate in accordance with market conditions and taxation agreements and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Both past performance and yields are not reliable indicators of current and future results.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>J.P. Morgan Asset Management is the brand for the asset management business of JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. and its affiliates worldwide.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Telephone calls and electronic communications may be monitored and\/or recorded.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Personal data will be collected, stored and processed by J.P. Morgan Asset Management in accordance with our privacy policies at https:\/\/www.jpmorgan.com\/privacy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This communication is issued in the United States, by J.P. Morgan Investment Management Inc. or J.P. Morgan Alternative Asset Management, Inc., both regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If you are a person with a disability and need additional support in viewing the material, please call us at 1-800-343-1113 for assistance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Copyright 2025 JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. All rights reserved.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><sup>\u00a9<\/sup>JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co., August 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Unless otherwise stated, all data is as of August 11, 2025 or as of most recently available.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>This week&#8217;s chart highlights uneven U.S. trade balance gains, with improvements from China but growing deficits with Taiwan and Vietnam.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":186,"featured_media":228681,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[],"contributors-categories":[13608],"class_list":{"0":"post-228680","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-macro","8":"category-north-america","9":"category-region","10":"category-securities","11":"category-text-articles","12":"category-traders-insight","13":"contributors-categories-j-p-morgan-asset-management"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.3) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Weekly Market Recap: Week of August 11, 2025<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" 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