{"id":228628,"date":"2025-08-08T12:28:30","date_gmt":"2025-08-08T16:28:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=228628"},"modified":"2025-08-09T09:43:43","modified_gmt":"2025-08-09T13:43:43","slug":"trade-of-the-day-tuesdays-core-cpi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/forecast-trader\/trade-of-the-day-tuesdays-core-cpi\/","title":{"rendered":"Trade of the Day: Tuesday\u2019s Core CPI: Aug. 8, 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>My forecast for this Tuesday\u2019s core Consumer Price Index (CPI) Stands at 3.02%, and I have found certain ForecastTrader Contracts with threshold levels that in my opinion offer favorable risk-reward profiles. The 3% median estimate, meanwhile, is near my expectation. I also looked for wiggle room, since this indicator has a subdued deviation rate from forecasts, rarely missing by 0.2% or more because it is well-telegraphed. Against this backdrop, I like the \u201cYes\u201d answer at 2.8% for $0.89, as well as the \u201cNos\u201d at 3.1% and 3.2%, priced at $0.86 and $0.95, respectively. These choices would requires deviations of 0.2% or higher to lose money.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1050\" height=\"763\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/08\/Picture1-FT-August-8.png\" alt=\"Historical Core CPI results\" class=\"wp-image-228630 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/08\/Picture1-FT-August-8.png 1050w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/08\/Picture1-FT-August-8-700x509.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/08\/Picture1-FT-August-8-300x218.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/08\/Picture1-FT-August-8-768x558.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1050px) 100vw, 1050px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1050px; aspect-ratio: 1050\/763;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"653\" height=\"66\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/08\/Picture2-August-2-forecast-trader.png\" alt=\"IBKR ForecastTrader Core CPI Contract\" class=\"wp-image-228631 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/08\/Picture2-August-2-forecast-trader.png 653w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/08\/Picture2-August-2-forecast-trader-300x30.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 653px) 100vw, 653px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 653px; aspect-ratio: 653\/66;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-resized\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"498\" height=\"644\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/08\/Picture3-Forecast-Trader-aug-8.png\" alt=\"Pricing of IBKR ForecastTrader Contracts regarding Core CPI\" class=\"wp-image-228632 lazyload\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 498px; aspect-ratio: 498\/644;width:950px;height:auto\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/08\/Picture3-Forecast-Trader-aug-8.png 498w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/08\/Picture3-Forecast-Trader-aug-8-300x388.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 498px) 100vw, 498px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>S<em>ource for Images: ForecastEx<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of August 8, 2025.<\/em>&nbsp;<em>Red circles around the thresholds were inserted by J. Torres to highlight his preferred \u201cYes\u201d and \u201cNo\u201d answers throughout different levels.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders\u2019 Academy video&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=ceR-weGZSXc\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>here<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>My forecast for this Tuesday\u2019s core Consumer Price Index (CPI) Stands at 3.02%, and I have found certain ForecastTrader Contracts with threshold levels that in my opinion offer favorable risk-reward profiles.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":903,"featured_media":206724,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"footnotes":""},"categories":[18929,18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[20451],"contributors-categories":[13760],"class_list":{"0":"post-228628","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-forecast-trader","8":"category-macro","9":"category-north-america","10":"category-region","11":"category-securities","12":"category-text-articles","13":"category-traders-insight","14":"tag-core-consumer-price-index","15":"contributors-categories-ibkr-macroeconomics"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.4) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Trade of 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