{"id":228475,"date":"2025-08-06T13:00:00","date_gmt":"2025-08-06T17:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=228475"},"modified":"2025-08-07T04:48:19","modified_gmt":"2025-08-07T08:48:19","slug":"revisiting-whether-bigger-is-better-or-worse-for-earnings","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/stocks\/revisiting-whether-bigger-is-better-or-worse-for-earnings\/","title":{"rendered":"Revisiting Whether Bigger is Better (or Worse) for Earnings"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Last week<\/a>, as earnings season was kicking into gear, we published an analysis<\/a> of the post-earnings moves of the S&P 500 (SPX) components that had reported from July 1 through July 25th<\/sup>.  Our conclusion at the time was that more highly weighted companies were underperforming, implying a bit more scrutiny was being placed upon the results.  That seems to have abated after the solid responses to some megacap earnings last week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The heavily weighted mega-cap winners were of course Microsoft (MSFT, +3.95% post-earnings, 7.34% index weight), and Meta Platforms (META, +11.25% post-earnings, 3.1% index weight).  Those more than offset the losses from Apple (AAPL, -2.50% post-earnings, 5.67% index weight) and Amazon (AMZN, -8.27% post-earnings, 3.78% index weight).  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

One thing that fascinated me while entering the data was just how large the most heavily weighted companies are vis-\u00e0-vis the vast majority.  This scatterplot of SPX weights is one way to visualize it.  Note how the vast mass of dots is just above the zero line on the y-axis:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Index<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Sources: Interactive Brokers, Bloomberg<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Overall though, we see that some things have changed since the prior week.  We had 150 companies reporting in that sample; now we have 327 through Monday.  That\u2019s about 65% of the number of stocks in the index (there are actually 503, not 500, thanks to two classes each of Alphabet, Fox, and Newscorp) and about 69% of the current index weight.  Unlike before, when a 56.33% majority of post-earnings moves were higher, that is now a slight 48.62% minority.  Also unlike before, we see a slight improvement when we adjust the average post-earnings move by index weight.  The weighted average is now higher than the average move. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bottom line, earnings season is going decently, and while we would like to assert that there is a strong relationship between the size of the reporting company and its post-earnings results, we can\u2019t.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"earnings<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Sources: Interactive Brokers, Bloomberg<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

From the data we published through July 25<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"From<\/figure>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Last week, as earnings season was kicking into gear, we published an analysis of the post-earnings moves of the S&P 500 (SPX) components that had reported from July 1 through July 25th. Our conclusion at the time was that more highly weighted companies were underperforming, implying a bit more scrutiny was being placed upon the results. That seems to have abated after the solid responses to some megacap earnings last week.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":198434,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"footnotes":""},"categories":[14700,6,8,9,22,26,3],"tags":[2397,20422,1854,12102,1751],"contributors-categories":[13576],"class_list":{"0":"post-228475","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-ibkr-market-insights","8":"category-north-america","9":"category-region","10":"category-securities","11":"category-stocks","12":"category-text-articles","13":"category-traders-insight","14":"tag-earnings-season","15":"tag-index-weighting","16":"tag-large-caps","17":"tag-market-reaction","18":"tag-small-caps","19":"contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nRevisiting Whether Bigger is Better (or Worse) for Earnings<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Last week, as earnings season was kicking into gear, we published an analysis of the post-earnings moves of the S&P 500 (SPX) components that had...\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/228475\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Revisiting Whether Bigger is Better (or Worse) for Earnings | IBKR Campus US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Last week, as earnings season was kicking into gear, we published an analysis of the post-earnings moves of the S&P 500 (SPX) components that had reported from July 1 through July 25th. 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