{"id":228461,"date":"2025-08-06T12:19:15","date_gmt":"2025-08-06T16:19:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=228461"},"modified":"2025-08-06T12:47:07","modified_gmt":"2025-08-06T16:47:07","slug":"team-no-for-fridays-canada-unemployment","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/prediction-market\/team-no-for-fridays-canada-unemployment\/","title":{"rendered":"\u201cTeam No\u201d For Friday\u2019s Canada Unemployment: Aug. 6, 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Canadian unemployment rate is set for release this Friday and the consensus estimate stands at 7%. Of the 17 forecasters surveyed by Reuters, all of them projected either 6.9% or 7%. The expected result would mark a 0.1% increase from the 6.9% June level. But when looking at forecast contract thresholds, the \u201cNos\u201d at 7.1% and 7.2% appear undervalued to me at $0.89 and $0.95, since they would require upward moves of 0.3% and 0.4% to lose money. And while this indicator has been relatively volatile, those jumps are historically rare as you can see from the chart below.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1050\" height=\"763\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/08\/Picture1-FT-aug-6-2025.png\" alt=\"Unemployment rate increases exceeding 0.3% in Canada have been rare.\" class=\"wp-image-228463 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/08\/Picture1-FT-aug-6-2025.png 1050w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/08\/Picture1-FT-aug-6-2025-700x509.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/08\/Picture1-FT-aug-6-2025-300x218.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/08\/Picture1-FT-aug-6-2025-768x558.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1050px) 100vw, 1050px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1050px; aspect-ratio: 1050\/763;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"680\" height=\"52\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/08\/Picture2-FT-August-6.png\" alt=\"IBKR ForecastTrader Contract asking if Canada's unemployment rate will exceed 7.1% in July.\" class=\"wp-image-228465 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/08\/Picture2-FT-August-6.png 680w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/08\/Picture2-FT-August-6-300x23.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 680px) 100vw, 680px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 680px; aspect-ratio: 680\/52;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"394\" height=\"423\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/08\/Picture3-2.png\" alt=\"Pricing of IBKR ForecastTrader Contracts asking if Canada's unemployment rate will exceed 7.1% in July.\" class=\"wp-image-228466 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/08\/Picture3-2.png 394w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/08\/Picture3-2-300x322.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 394px) 100vw, 394px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 394px; aspect-ratio: 394\/423;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">S<em>ource for Images: ForecastEx<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of August 6, 2025.<\/em>&nbsp;<em>Red circle around the thresholds was inserted by J. Torres to highlight his preferred \u201cNo\u201d answers throughout different levels.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders\u2019 Academy video&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=ceR-weGZSXc\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>here<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Canadian unemployment rate is set for release this Friday and the consensus estimate stands at 7%.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":903,"featured_media":223605,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[18929,18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[19420],"contributors-categories":[13760],"class_list":["post-228461","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-prediction-market","category-macro","category-north-america","category-region","category-securities","category-text-articles","category-traders-insight","tag-canada-unemployment","contributors-categories-ibkr-macroeconomics"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v28.0) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>\u201cTeam No\u201d For Friday\u2019s Canada Unemployment: Aug. 6, 2025<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The Canadian unemployment rate is set for release this Friday and the consensus estimate stands at 7%. 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