{"id":228362,"date":"2025-08-05T11:56:12","date_gmt":"2025-08-05T15:56:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=228362"},"modified":"2025-08-05T12:01:28","modified_gmt":"2025-08-05T16:01:28","slug":"is-the-jobs-report-losing-its-job","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/podcasts\/ibkr-podcasts\/is-the-jobs-report-losing-its-job\/","title":{"rendered":"Is the Jobs Report Losing Its Job?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>When President Trump fires the nation\u2019s top jobs statistician, markets and analysts scramble to make sense of the shocking move. Chief Market Strategist Steve Sosnick joins Andrew Wilkinson to unpack the politics, the data, and what it all means for rates, markets, and the truth behind the numbers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<iframe title=\"Is the Jobs Report Losing Its Job?\" allowtransparency=\"true\" height=\"150\" width=\"100%\" style=\"border: none; min-width: min(100%, 430px);height:150px;\" scrolling=\"no\" data-name=\"pb-iframe-player\" src=\"https:\/\/www.podbean.com\/player-v2\/?i=tsysg-1926207-pb&#038;from=pb6admin&#038;share=1&#038;download=1&#038;rtl=0&#038;fonts=Arial&#038;skin=1b1b1b&#038;font-color=ffffff&#038;logo_link=episode_page&#038;btn-skin=c73a3a\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/iframe>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-summary-ibkr-podcasts-ep-280\">Summary \u2013 IBKR Podcasts Ep. 280<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><em>The following is a summary of a live audio recording and may contain errors in spelling or grammar. Although IBKR has edited for clarity no material changes have been<\/em> <em>made<\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-andrew-wilkinson\"><strong>Andrew Wilkinson<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>US stocks rebounded to start the week following the public firing of the government statistician who puts together the jobs data. This came after news of a weaker-than-anticipated labor market, with equity prices tumbling no sooner than they had reached yet another record high. To discuss the latest economic data and markets, I&#8217;m joined by Chief Market Strategist here at Interactive Brokers, Steve Sosnick. Welcome to the program, Steve.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-steve-sosnick\"><strong>Steve Sosnick<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Good morning, Andrew. Great to see you.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-andrew-wilkinson-0\"><strong>Andrew Wilkinson<\/strong>\u00a0<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Likewise, sir. Likewise. Steve, your take on the public firing of the BLS Statistics Chief by President Trump last week?\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-steve-sosnick-0\"><strong>Steve Sosnick<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>I happened to actually be doing a live TV broadcast when the numbers came out. I was on with an economist and a bond market strategist. We were on Yahoo Finance, and the number was stunning. I don\u2019t know that you could really capture our reaction shot, but our jaws dropped \u2014 that revision was startling.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>And obviously, you have to question: when you essentially wipe out two months\u2019 worth of job growth, what went wrong? As the dust settled, the explanations tended to be that there are household surveys, which track unemployment, and business surveys, which track non-farm payrolls. The response rate for these surveys has been getting worse and worse \u2014 apparently it used to be 85\u201390%, and now it\u2019s down to about 60%.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As a result, the data doesn\u2019t always come in on time. Clearly, what happened was that people who had been hiring submitted their results on time, while people who had been firing held them back. The number was stunning, but there was an explanation for it.\u00a0We absolutely should have gotten that explanation immediately \u2014 that would have been crucial. The problem is, I don\u2019t like the idea of shooting the messenger. I see no reason to believe that the commissioner\u2019s actions were at all nefarious. But as I listened to explanations \u2014 most recently, the president speaking on CNBC this morning \u2014 a lot of it seemed to be rooted in grievances about how the numbers came out around the prior election.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>That puts us on a very slippery slope. We need transparent data. The idea of sacking someone simply because you don\u2019t like the data \u2014 even if it does raise eyebrows, drop jaws, and require a detailed explanation \u2014 sends us down a bad road. It\u2019s going to make people question whether the data has been \u201ccooked\u201d to avoid political fallout.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-andrew-wilkinson-1\"><strong>Andrew Wilkinson<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Correct me if I\u2019m wrong, Steve, but the BLS also puts together the inflation report.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-steve-sosnick-1\"><strong>Steve Sosnick<\/strong>\u00a0<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Indeed they do. Again, the president was asserting, \u201cWe have no inflation.\u201d I\u2019m going to assume that\u2019s hyperbole rather than a sincere belief, because the numbers clearly show zero is not the number. We can argue whether the current number is too high, too low, or adequate \u2014 by all means. But now, you have to wonder if those numbers will get politicized.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It\u2019s a slippery slope. Unfortunately, it\u2019s the sort of thing that happens. I\u2019m not going to go too far down that road, but it\u2019s not a good look for the US.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-andrew-wilkinson-2\"><strong>Andrew Wilkinson<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Let\u2019s get back to the jobs number though, Steve. For the past several months, the economist estimates have been lower than the actual outturn, so we\u2019ve exceeded expectations by a lot. To me, they have dumbfounded the thought that the economy is hitting any kind of speed bump \u2014 or certainly anticipating the forthcoming tariffs, which are due to come in later this week.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>So are we just about where we should be if we had really hit the numbers economists were forecasting in February, March, April, May, and June?&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-steve-sosnick-2\"><strong>Steve Sosnick<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Here\u2019s the crazy part \u2014 I\u2019ve always decried ADP as being a lousy indicator of the number that follows. Typically, ADP comes out on Wednesday and the government data comes out on Friday, and those numbers don\u2019t usually match.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But here\u2019s the crazy part: I actually saw someone post \u2014 I forget where, or I\u2019d point you to it \u2014 that the ADP report has basically shown a very flat level of labor over the past six months. When all is said and done, that\u2019s actually what the BLS survey is showing us now. One might argue that the ADP number, on a longer-term basis, is actually more accurate than the BLS number.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This is where I wish we had Jose to turn to today \u2014 I know he had a conflict \u2014 but it\u2019s an interesting problem. The state of the labor economy\u2026 believe me, I\u2019m sure Chairman Powell would have loved to have had these numbers on Wednesday, when he was basically saying \u2014 and I agreed with him \u2014 that we\u2019re not in restrictive monetary policy. Monetary policy is not preventing us from doing anything that needs to get done in terms of credit, speculation, or otherwise.\u00a0Less than 48 hours later, the data changed and showed that the labor economy is not nearly as healthy as everyone thought. Would he like to have that back? Would it have changed the Fed\u2019s discussion? I\u2019m going to guess probably.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We still don\u2019t really know the inflationary outcome from the tariffs \u2014 they\u2019re still pretty much a work in progress. For the most part, they\u2019re just getting implemented tomorrow, or the day after.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-andrew-wilkinson-3\"><strong>Andrew Wilkinson<\/strong>\u00a0<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>And some might say, yeah, actually on the fly.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-steve-sosnick-3\"><strong>Steve Sosnick<\/strong>\u00a0\u00a0<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Yeah, and that also means \u2014 considering you\u2019re talking about government systems \u2014 how long does it take for those systems to adapt and get the right numbers in them? It\u2019s still very much a work in progress.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>There\u2019s still uncertainty. People were hoping the uncertainty would be behind us. But if you still don\u2019t know the outcome with China and Canada \u2014 two of our three biggest trading partners \u2014 it\u2019s hard to say there\u2019s a lot of clarity.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This is all what\u2019s been reflected in the markets recently.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-andrew-wilkinson-4\"><strong>Andrew Wilkinson<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>So, notwithstanding that we still don&#8217;t know with any clear outcome, I think it&#8217;s safe to say \u2014 as you said \u2014 there&#8217;s a potential slippery slope ahead of us in terms of future data and who\u2019s controlling the data. There\u2019s a stronger likelihood, rather than a weaker one, of lower interest rates and sooner. Are you more surprised that the dollar hasn&#8217;t weakened in response to what happened on Friday, or that the longer yields haven&#8217;t risen?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-steve-sosnick-4\"><strong>Steve Sosnick<\/strong>\u00a0\u00a0<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>The dollar actually, I think, got a bit oversold. I am surprised, still, that we&#8217;re not seeing a steeper yield curve. The action at the short end of the curve is what you would expect if you were drastically rejiggering your rate cut expectations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-andrew-wilkinson-5\"><strong>Andrew Wilkinson<\/strong>\u00a0\u00a0<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>True.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-steve-sosnic-k\"><strong>Steve Sosnic<\/strong>k\u00a0<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Also, one of the more perplexing things to me was that the bond market was either stagnant or seeing rising yields at the same time the dollar was weakening. That\u2019s a sign that people are selling bonds.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>What we saw on Friday was the dollar weakening as bond yields plummeted \u2014 that fits. The problem is, there are all these different moving parts. What was more perplexing yesterday was that bonds didn\u2019t really change their point of view, currencies didn\u2019t change their point of view, commodities didn\u2019t really change their point of view \u2014 and stocks just decided Friday didn\u2019t happen.\u00a0That, to me, is the far more perplexing part of it. It just shows the willingness of traders to buy dips and chase rallies. The fact is, what the bond market and other asset markets decided on Friday pretty much held yesterday, and seems to be holding today.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We\u2019re not seeing big moves in bonds or the dollar. But going forward, I do have to wonder about the steepness of the yield curve, because I think we\u2019re introducing some combination of higher deficits and\/or higher inflation \u2014 both of which can be punishing to the long end of the curve.\u00a0Particularly if you\u2019re going to have a Fed that errs toward cutting rates rather than keeping them stable, that pushes down the short end of the curve while potentially raising the long end. That, to me, is the tell we really have to watch going forward.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-andrew-wilkinson-6\"><strong>Andrew Wilkinson<\/strong>\u00a0<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>So, the path of least resistance for now would be up for stocks. What are the weaker parts of the stock market that currently give you pause for thought? Are you seeing any signs of weakness or red flags going up?\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-steve-sosnick-5\"><strong>Steve Sosnick<\/strong>\u00a0<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>The biggest red flag is that we really have a very bifurcated market. I\u2019m not going to make a case here against the mega-cap tech stocks \u2014 it\u2019s very hard to do, at least after seeing some of the numbers from Meta, Microsoft, and Alphabet, and from Palantir yesterday. These companies are delivering.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The problem is concentration. We\u2019ve been in a bifurcated market all along \u2014 say, growth versus value. I want to be watching consumer discretionary stocks, travel stocks \u2014 these kinds of things \u2014 because there\u2019s a lot of anecdotal evidence piling up that consumers are cutting back.\u00a0Consumers are two-thirds of the economy. So even if AI spending proves to be fruitful \u2014 because companies that are spending on AI are accelerating that spending, and clearly believe it\u2019s money well spent \u2014 you ultimately need a decent economy.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I think that\u2019s something the stock market loses sight of. One rationale given for why the market rallied yesterday was the idea that rate cuts might be coming faster and deeper than priced in. But you have to ask <em>why<\/em>.\u00a0If you\u2019re getting rate cuts because inflation is benign and the economy is steady-state, then fine \u2014 you can cut 25 or 50 basis points here and there, and that\u2019s a good cut. But if you have to cut because the economy is weakening, the Fed is often behind the curve on that. That\u2019s a \u201ccareful what you wish for\u201d situation.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Again, that\u2019s why I look at the disjointed nature of stock and bond returns yesterday and think about it in a different state of mind.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-andrew-wilkinson-7\"><strong>Andrew Wilkinson<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Steve Sosnick, thank you very much for joining me today.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-steve-sosnick-6\"><strong>Steve Sosnick<\/strong>\u00a0\u00a0<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Thanks, Andrew. Take care. Bye-bye.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-andrew-wilkinson-8\"><strong>Andrew Wilkinson<\/strong>\u00a0<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>And to the audience \u2014 if you enjoyed today\u2019s podcast, don\u2019t forget to subscribe wherever you get your podcasts. Bye for now.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>When President Trump fires the nation\u2019s top jobs statistician, markets and analysts scramble to make sense of the shocking move. Chief Market Strategist Steve Sosnick joins Andrew Wilkinson to unpack the politics, the data, and what it all means for rates, markets, and the truth behind the numbers.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":111,"featured_media":228364,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[10842,13857],"tags":[16187,11196,20413,1826,11515,3221,17236,20416,17686,850,2067,12102,20415,16363,4109,335,20414,19619,2167,20417,861],"contributors-categories":[13576],"class_list":{"0":"post-228362","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-ibkr-podcasts","8":"category-podcasts","9":"tag-andrew-wilkinson","10":"tag-bls","11":"tag-bls-firing","12":"tag-bond-market","13":"tag-donald-trump","14":"tag-economic-data","15":"tag-fed-rate-cuts","16":"tag-government-statistics","17":"tag-inflation-report","18":"tag-interest-rates","19":"tag-jobs-report","20":"tag-market-reaction","21":"tag-politics-and-markets","22":"tag-steve-sosnick","23":"tag-stock-market","24":"tag-trump","25":"tag-trump-news","26":"tag-unemployment-data","27":"tag-us-economy","28":"tag-us-jobs-data","29":"tag-yield-curve","30":"contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.8) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Is the Jobs Report Losing Its Job? | IBKR Podcasts<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"When President Trump fires the nation\u2019s top jobs statistician, markets and analysts scramble to make sense of the shocking move. 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