{"id":228304,"date":"2025-08-04T14:37:34","date_gmt":"2025-08-04T18:37:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=228304"},"modified":"2025-08-04T14:37:25","modified_gmt":"2025-08-04T18:37:25","slug":"a-mathematical-turning-point","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/ibkr-quant-news\/a-mathematical-turning-point\/","title":{"rendered":"A Mathematical Turning Point? \u00a0"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Quant traders, pay attention to the mathematical cadence of the market.&nbsp;<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Like this: The stock market turned with August month-end expirations. For more on month-end index-options expirations, see <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cboe.com\/tradable_products\/sp_500\/spx_end_of_month_options\/specifications\">this<\/a> from the CBOE.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">These month-end CBOE contracts are \u201cEuropean-style\u201d instruments, meaning they\u2019re used on the day of expiration. Importantly, <em>\u201cSPX EOM options allow asset managers to more precisely match SPX option expirations to end-of-month fund cycles and fund performance periods.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>That last sentence is why we pay attention.&nbsp;<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>They\u2019re signals about fund cycles<\/em>.&nbsp; What do I mean by \u201cthe stock market turned?\u201d Behavior changed.&nbsp; As I write Aug 4, the broad measures are all up sharply.&nbsp; Recognize this as the counterparty to Friday\u2019s big decline. UNLESS trends change, it\u2019s a one-day event.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>This signal then is either a different fund cycle in S&amp;P 500 stocks, or the impact of the loss of collateral if netting (the difference between the exercise and settlement prices) is negative.&nbsp;<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Now, sure. There are other things going on. <strong>And again, none of us knows what tomorrow brings<\/strong>.&nbsp; The sudden caterwaul in August 2024 was fleeting and blamed on the yen carry trade, and trouble evaporated in a snapback like Apr 8-9, 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">But. Behavioral change matters and it\u2019s mathematically measurable:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Volatility in SPX stocks has spiked to 2.6% the past five days, above the 5, 20, 50 and 200-day averages.<\/strong>&nbsp; Meaningful?&nbsp; In the sense that it\u2019s like hitting a spate of turbulence on a plane that prompts the pilots to hunt for smoother air. It\u2019s a change. And volatility in ETF trackers of the S&amp;P 500, which tend to run at about half the underlying basket\u2019s volatility, shot up the past three days from a languid 0.6% to over 1%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Conclusion? Volatility is up.\u00a0 Why?\u00a0 We turn to behaviors.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">At <a href=\"https:\/\/marketstructureedge.com\/\">EDGE<\/a> (sign up for our free daily Market Desk Notes), we measure \u201cBroad Sentiment,\u201d the Demand\/Supply balance in S&amp;P 500 stocks. We normalize the measure to a 10-point scale. At 6.0, the market is topped. It\u2019s not that the market tips over there but that the probability of gains diminishes until Demand bottoms, and Supply recedes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>A note on \u201cSupply,\u201d it\u2019s Reg SHO Rule 201 \u201cshort volume\u201d data.<\/strong>\u00a0 For the first time ever back to 2012 when there was sufficient data after 2011 Finra inauguration of the reporting requirement to have a 200-day average, the 5, 20, 50 and 200-day reads are all over 50%.\u00a0 And the five-day average shot up Friday to 52.2%.\u00a0 A one-day gain isn\u2019t a pattern, but rises in short volume tend to run an average of seven days on a trend basis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">So we\u2019ve got topped Demand, rising Supply, and suddenly higher volatility. <em>\u00a0A turning point.<\/em>\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Let me give you one more<\/strong>: Since January 2, the average move vs daily midpoint in ETFs tracking the S&amp;P 500 is seven basis points.\u00a0 Not unusual. The market\u2019s unremitting capacity to return to a level just over midpoint is explained by the pervasiveness of money tracking the benchmarks like the S&amp;P 500.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">During a brief stretch in April, the spread vs midpoint jumped to 45 basis points, and then dropped to a single basis point Apr 14 \u2013 the bottom (the day I leveraged long into the SPX).\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In the last two days it\u2019s averaged 34 basis points.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Look, it may mean nothing. It\u2019s math and math changes as inputs evolve.<\/strong>\u00a0 Big Tech still looks good from a Demand\/Supply view. But the Tech sector has deteriorated. So has Communications Services, Consumer Discretionary, Financials, Health Care. That\u2019s most of the market. Sixty-four percent of the market is topped or headed down, just 36% is bottomed or rebounding, from a Demand view.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">My conclusion?\u00a0 <em>We COULD go into an extended slide because the fund cycle has changed. <\/em>Doesn\u2019t mean we will.\u00a0 But I don\u2019t trust prices. I trust Demand\/Supply balances.\u00a0 It\u2019s math.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">PS \u2013 If you want to hear more, join us Aug 7, 230p ET, at the <a href=\"https:\/\/calendly.com\/marketstructureedge\/group-market-structure-edge-demo?month=2025-08&amp;date=2025-08-07\">live EDGE Demo and Discussion<\/a>! And become an EDGE subscriber for access to our model portfolios.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>These month-end CBOE contracts are \u201cEuropean-style\u201d instruments, meaning they\u2019re used on the day of expiration.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1157,"featured_media":182721,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[339,338,341,9563],"tags":[1006,494],"contributors-categories":[15343],"class_list":["post-228304","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-data-science","category-ibkr-quant-news","category-quant-development","category-options-quant","tag-fintech","tag-quant","contributors-categories-market-structure-edge"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v28.0) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>A Mathematical Turning Point? \u00a0 | IBKR Quant<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" 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