{"id":228239,"date":"2025-08-01T11:30:00","date_gmt":"2025-08-01T15:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=228239"},"modified":"2025-08-04T03:50:23","modified_gmt":"2025-08-04T07:50:23","slug":"august-tariff-wave-could-hit-pharma-and-consumers-hard","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/august-tariff-wave-could-hit-pharma-and-consumers-hard\/","title":{"rendered":"August Tariff Wave Could Hit Pharma and Consumers Hard"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

U.S. customs duties topped $100 billion for the first time ever in a single year this month. That number is even more remarkable when you consider that most of President Donald Trump\u2019s new tariffs haven\u2019t even taken full effect yet.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

As you\u2019ve heard me say countless times before, government policy is a precursor to change. We\u2019ve already seen some big changes in trade, but come August 1, we\u2019ll see even more. Investors are experiencing a mix of strong market performance on the one hand and growing economic friction on the other.
Historic Tariff Revenues<\/strong>
The U.S. pulled in over $27 billion in tariffs in June alone, according to the Treasury Department. That helped produce a surprise $27 billion budget surplus for the month, something we haven\u2019t seen in a long time. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent suggests that tariff revenue could exceed $300 billion by year-end<\/a> if the administration\u2019s plan stays on course.
Tariffs are clearly working as a revenue generator for the federal government. But keep in mind that tariffs are taxes, paid by American businesses and passed on to consumers in many cases.
Inflation may be creeping in already. June\u2019s consumer price index (CPI) rose to 2.7% year-over-year, the highest rate in four months, and core inflation\u2014excluding food and energy\u2014is at 2.9%. The culprits? Imported consumer staples like clothes, shoes, furniture and electronics, which are facing some of the highest tariff rates since the 1930s.
For retirees and working families alike, that means higher prices at Walmart and Target, and fewer dollars left over to save or invest. Yale\u2019s Budget Lab estimates that this year\u2019s tariffs will cost the average U.S. household $2,500.<\/a>
Big Pharma Braces for Impact<\/strong>
Auto prices, surprisingly, have dipped in recent months, likely due to an early surge in consumer demand ahead of new tariffs and incentives from dealers. I wouldn\u2019t expect that trend to last. Analysts at Cox Automotive say the added cost from tariffs\u2014up to $5,700 per imported vehicle<\/a>\u2014could eventually hit the most affordable models the hardest.
Meanwhile, the pharmaceutical sector is on high alert. Trump says his proposed drug import tariffs could begin at a low rate in August and ratchet up over the next year. According to the president, this is about bringing jobs home or making companies pay the price. Investors should watch this space closely, as health care stocks could be in for a wild ride.
S&P 500 Closes at a Record<\/strong>
Despite these headwinds, the S&P 500 closed at a record high on Thursday. And June\u2019s PPI (producer price index) inflation came in flat, defying predictions from every one of Bloomberg\u2019s surveyed economists.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Earnings calls from S&P 500 companies show fewer concerns about inflation than at any time since 2021, according to Schwab\u2019s Liz Ann Sonders.

Some of the tariffs may be getting absorbed by companies willing to take on lower margins. Others are rerouting supply chains<\/a> through lower-tariff countries like Vietnam and Mexico, in a process known as transshipment.
<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Manufacturing Execs Express Uncertainty<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Not all business leaders are thrilled. A recent survey from the Atlanta Fed shows that 70% of executives overall report tariff-related uncertainty. That number jumps to nearly 90% in manufacturing.<\/a> I see that as a red flag because when uncertainty is this high, companies tend to pull back on hiring and investment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Historically, uncertainty has been an enemy of bull markets and long-term growth. The longer companies wait on new projects, the more it drags on GDP. Yale\u2019s model suggests that U.S. economic growth this year will be approximately one percentage point lower due to tariffs, with a persistent 0.4% drag in the years to come.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Pharma Tariffs Loom as the Next Inflation Shock<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Tariffs may bring in revenue and support reshoring efforts, but they also create friction. Certain sectors like industrials, autos and consumer discretionary will feel the pinch more acutely. Conversely, companies with domestic supply chains already in place and strong pricing power may fare better.
Gold also deserves a second look. Tariff-induced uncertainty and fiscal imbalances have tended to support demand for hard assets, especially if the Fed is constrained on rate cuts due to sticky inflation.
Again, keep your eye on August 1. That\u2019s when the next wave of tariffs is set to roll out, potentially including those on pharmaceuticals. Whether markets stay calm or not may depend on how quickly businesses and consumers adapt.
—<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Originally Posted July 21, 2025 – August Tariff Wave Could Hit Pharma and Consumers Hard<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

All opinions expressed and data provided are subject to change without notice. Some of these opinions may not be appropriate to every investor. By clicking the link(s) above, you will be directed to a third-party website(s). U.S. Global Investors does not endorse all information supplied by this\/these website(s) and is not responsible for its\/their content.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics that tracks the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a representative basket of goods and services. The Producer Price Index (PPI) is a measure published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics that tracks the average change over time in the selling prices received by domestic producers for their goods and services. The S&P 500 is a stock market index published by S&P Dow Jones Indices that tracks the performance of 500 of the largest publicly traded companies in the United States, representing a broad measure of the U.S. equity market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

None of the securities mentioned in the article were held in any of U.S. Global Investors\u2019 funds as of 6\/30\/2025.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

U.S. customs duties topped $100 billion for the first time ever in a single year this month. 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