{"id":228137,"date":"2025-07-30T13:02:27","date_gmt":"2025-07-30T17:02:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=228137"},"modified":"2025-07-31T03:59:39","modified_gmt":"2025-07-31T07:59:39","slug":"fomc-msft-meta-anything-to-see-here","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/options\/fomc-msft-meta-anything-to-see-here\/","title":{"rendered":"FOMC, MSFT, META \u2013 Anything to See Here?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

With an FOMC announcement during the trading day and earnings from Microsoft (MSFT) and Meta Platforms after the close, today offers the potential for some significant market fireworks.  The question is whether the market will react to the spectacle or decide there is nothing to see and disperse<\/a>.[1]<\/a>[i]<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

So far this week we\u2019ve seen major indices trade in a relatively narrow range.  This likely indicates some prudent position squaring ahead of a data deluge.  After discussing volatility indices\u2019 relative yawn yesterday<\/a> morning, the minor selling that occurred yesterday afternoon was sufficient to get VIX and VIX9D to perk up a bit.  Some traders seem to have taken that as a gentle reminder that markets can indeed go lower every so often.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That said, as we look at short-term S&P 500 (SPX) options ahead of the FOMC meeting, we see the now-customary modest upside bias.  According to the IBKR Probability Lab, with SPX trading at 6377, we see a peak probability assigned to the 6385-6390 level for options expiring this afternoon, with an even higher peak of 6410-6415 for options expiring Friday.   That\u2019s understandable, considering the upside bias that indices have been displaying for weeks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

IBKR Probability Lab for SPX Options Expiring July 30, 2025\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Source: Interactive Brokers<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

IBKR Probability Lab for SPX Options Expiring August 1, 2025<\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Source: Interactive Brokers<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

That said, we see some definite risk aversion in near-term options skews.  Today\u2019s expiry is quite steep, while options expiring Friday and at the regular monthly August expiration understandably display flatter skews.  It\u2019s typical for options buyers to try to minimize their premia by waiting until the last moment to hedge.  The at-money daily volatility of about 1.3% is commensurate with recent post-FOMC daily moves.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Skews for SPX Options Expiring July 30th<\/sup> (top), August 1st<\/sup> (middle), August 15th<\/sup>, 2025 (bottom)<\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Source: Interactive Brokers<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Source: Interactive Brokers<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Things get a bit more complicated when we look at the largest two of the roughly 50 SPX stocks that are set to report earnings today.  Risk aversion and FOMO play roughly equal roles in their pricing.  Note the obvious plateau in the probability distribution for MSFT options expiring Friday.  There is a barely discernible peak around the $500 level, about 2% below the current stock price, but the likelihoods of an outcome anywhere between $497.50 and $527.50 are quite similar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

IBKR Probability Lab for MSFT Options Expiring August 1, 2025<\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Source: Interactive Brokers<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

MSFT skew for the upcoming weekly options shows a bit of a \u201cW\u201d shape.  A bit of a bump in near-money options disrupt what would otherwise be a generally steep skew with a trough about 10% above the current level.  The 4% daily implied volatility seen in at-money options is roughly commensurate with 3.57% average of the past two years of post-earnings moves, though it is well below the last three (+7.63%, -6.18%, -6.05%, -1.08%, 1.82%, -2.69%, 3.07%, -3.76%)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Skews for MSFT Options Expiring August 1st<\/sup> (blue), August 15th<\/sup> (yellow), September 19th<\/sup>, 2025 (orange)<\/em><\/strong><\/a><\/h3>\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Source: Interactive Brokers<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Expectations for META are a bit more cautious, but still not particularly troublesome.  We see a relatively symmetrical distribution, though with a pronounced peak in the $680 range, about 3% below the current $701 price. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

IBKR Probability Lab for META Options Expiring August 1, 2025<\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Source: Interactive Brokers<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

META skew for Friday\u2019s options also shows somewhat of a \u201cW\u201d shape, though less pronounced than that of MSFT.  The peak is also in the at-money options, but it is notable that the strikes from about -10% lower to +20% higher have quite similar implied volatilities.  The at-money daily implied volatility of 6% is above the recent modest moves of less than 5%, but reflect traders\u2019 memories of last year\u2019s double digit percentage moves (+4.23%, +1.55%, -4.09%, +4.82%, -10.56%, +20.32%, -3.73%, +4.4%).<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Skews for META Options Expiring August 1st (blue), August 15th (yellow), September 19th, 2025 (orange)<\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Source: Interactive Brokers<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

This afternoon, from about 2pm EDT on, could get spicy.  Much depends upon the tone of the FOMC\u2019s statement, whether Chair Powell offers a \u201cGoldilocks<\/a>\u201d tone at his press conference, and how MSFT and\/or META earnings are greeted by investors.  From a macro viewpoint, much matters whether those cross-currents offset or reinforce each other.  If they offset, then the result will be relatively muted volatility.  If they reinforce each other, then buckle up<\/a>. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n\n

[i]<\/a> The Frank Drebin reference was clearly inspired by my cautious optimism ahead of this weekend\u2019s Naked Gun<\/em> reboot.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

With an FOMC announcement during the trading day and earnings from Microsoft (MSFT) and Meta Platforms after the close, today offers the potential for some significant market fireworks. The question is whether the market will react to the spectacle or decide there is nothing to see and disperse. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":116504,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[14700,6,19,8,9,26,3],"tags":[],"contributors-categories":[13576],"class_list":{"0":"post-228137","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-ibkr-market-insights","8":"category-north-america","9":"category-options","10":"category-region","11":"category-securities","12":"category-text-articles","13":"category-traders-insight","14":"contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nFOMC, MSFT, META \u2013 Anything to See Here?<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"With an FOMC announcement during the trading day and earnings from Microsoft (MSFT) and Meta Platforms after the close, today offers the potential for...\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/228137\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"FOMC, MSFT, META \u2013 Anything to See Here? | IBKR Campus US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"With an FOMC announcement during the trading day and earnings from Microsoft (MSFT) and Meta Platforms after the close, today offers the potential for some significant market fireworks. 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