{"id":228087,"date":"2025-07-30T10:51:48","date_gmt":"2025-07-30T14:51:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=228087"},"modified":"2025-07-30T10:50:46","modified_gmt":"2025-07-30T14:50:46","slug":"is-it-math-or-human-nature","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/ibkr-quant-news\/is-it-math-or-human-nature\/","title":{"rendered":"Is it Math or Human Nature?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

We quantitative traders use math to mitigate the effects of human nature.\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the Denver Botanic Gardens <\/strong>Monday Jul 28, musical savant Jacob Collier<\/strong> played Michael Jackson\u2019s Human Nature with some startling mathematical and technological wizardry that turned his voice into a choir. And then he turned the 2,500 of us on hand into a choir. If you have a chance to see Jacob Collier, take it.  Ethereal, transporting. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the stock market, the battle is to override one\u2019s nature \u2013 which is prone to error \u2013 and stick to the math. <\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

And this week, our objectivity is suffused with a lot of subjectivity called the cadence and calendar of the market.<\/strong>  A swath of the S&P 500 reports earnings including Microsoft, Meta, Apple and Amazon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee<\/strong> is meeting now and Jay Powell will opine about monetary policy Jul 30. Though no changes are expected, the seers will sift Mr. Powell\u2019s words like a pack of Tarot cards. And Thursday, month-end options expire with everybody overweight equities. Then monthly US jobs data are out Friday as President Trump\u2019s self-declared tariff deadline hits. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

And this past weekend, the US and the European Union struck a deal on tariffs while Chinese and American negotiators are meeting now in Stockholm.  And suddenly the market seems uncertain \u2013 almost given to human nature \u2013 about whether tariffs are good or bad. <\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

And crazy stuff is happening<\/strong>.  Retail traders are now behind $600 billion of daily foreign exchange trading \u2013 about the same as the dollar-volume in the entire US stock market.  There are meme stocks. Cryptocurrencies are booming. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

So, let\u2019s go to the math:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The big Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) tracking S&P 500 stocks (I\u2019d give you a name but compliance forbids it) have intraday volatility of 0.5% the last five days, half the long-run 1% average.  That could be a problem.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

One thing that makes the market work is what we call the 1-2-3 Rule<\/em>.  S&P 500 ETFs move about 1% daily from high to low.  The underlying stocks comprising the S&P 500 move 2%. And momentum is 3% or more. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Get that balance right and money falls from the sky, grows on trees. Well, so to speak. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

But check the math on Short Volume, the Reg SHO Rule 201 data that we at Market Structure EDGE call \u201cSupply.\u201d<\/strong>  In big ETFs tracking the S&P 500, Supply has risen from a 200-day average of 54% to a 5-day average of 63%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In stocks comprising the S&P 500, volatility is 2.2% and has averaged more than 2% for 50 days.  The 200-day average is 2.5%.  Five-day average Short Volume (as you can see at EDGE) is 52% vs the 200-day average of 50%. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Could arbitragers shrink the spread in ETFs too much and cause the arbitrage mechanism to fail?<\/strong>  Dunno. One conclusion in the data, the market is dependent on SUPPLY \u2013 Short Volume. So then what threatens stability isn\u2019t turbulence but sudden uncertainty among all the arbitrage machines on whether to go long or short.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For clues on that, at EDGE we watch these three drivers:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Broad Sentiment<\/strong>.  Up to 5.2, Supply about 52% and MAYBE bottoming again soon, the trend says, unless something changes.  Here\u2019s an interesting tidbit: Since July 18, S&P 500 stocks have had net selling four days, net buying three days.  It\u2019s flying by wire.  If Jul 29 is a net selling day, there\u2019s an imbalance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Context<\/strong>.  The FOMC meeting concludes Wednesday with a statement.  Index options expire Thursday.  Jobs data Friday.  Tariff deadlines could come or go. Earnings. Beware things are squirrely.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Divergence<\/strong>.  A lot of stocks show rising Demand, falling Supply (divergence).  The EDGE Momentum and Low Volatility portfolios have a combined 31 choices. That\u2019s a lot.  But Context could trump Divergence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Everybody seems to think the market is about to fall.  Yet when it does, the manner will still surprise everybody. Let\u2019s watch Volatility, Demand trend, Supply trend.<\/strong> Those things will tell us. And it\u2019ll be sudden and then maybe sustained.  That\u2019s what the math says.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

PS \u2013 Come join the next live Discussion<\/a> ahead of Jobs Friday. You\u2019ll want to be armed with the best data.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

In the stock market, the battle is to override one\u2019s nature \u2013 which is prone to error \u2013 and stick to the math. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1157,"featured_media":48731,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[339,338,341,9563],"tags":[1006,494],"contributors-categories":[15343],"class_list":{"0":"post-228087","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-data-science","8":"category-ibkr-quant-news","9":"category-quant-development","10":"category-options-quant","11":"tag-fintech","12":"tag-quant","13":"contributors-categories-market-structure-edge"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nIs it Math or Human Nature? | IBKR Quant<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"In the stock market, the battle is to override one\u2019s nature \u2013 which is prone to error \u2013 and stick to the math.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/228087\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Is it Math or Human Nature?\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"In the stock market, the battle is to override one\u2019s nature \u2013 which is prone to error \u2013 and stick to the math.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/ibkr-quant-news\/is-it-math-or-human-nature\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"IBKR Campus US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2025-07-30T14:51:48+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2020\/06\/abstract-numbers-swirl.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"900\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"550\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Tim Quast\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Tim Quast\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"4 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\n\t \"@context\": \"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\n\t \"@graph\": [\n\t {\n\t \"@type\": \"NewsArticle\",\n\t \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/www.interactivebrokers.com\\\/campus\\\/ibkr-quant-news\\\/is-it-math-or-human-nature\\\/#article\",\n\t \"isPartOf\": {\n\t \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/www.interactivebrokers.com\\\/campus\\\/ibkr-quant-news\\\/is-it-math-or-human-nature\\\/\"\n\t },\n\t \"author\": {\n\t \"name\": \"Tim Quast\",\n\t \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/e9bd9c83d0dad7505cd53b7980b1f09b\"\n\t },\n\t \"headline\": \"Is it Math or Human Nature?\",\n\t \"datePublished\": \"2025-07-30T14:51:48+00:00\",\n\t \"mainEntityOfPage\": {\n\t \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/www.interactivebrokers.com\\\/campus\\\/ibkr-quant-news\\\/is-it-math-or-human-nature\\\/\"\n\t },\n\t \"wordCount\": 728,\n\t \"commentCount\": 0,\n\t \"publisher\": {\n\t \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/#organization\"\n\t },\n\t \"image\": {\n\t \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/www.interactivebrokers.com\\\/campus\\\/ibkr-quant-news\\\/is-it-math-or-human-nature\\\/#primaryimage\"\n\t },\n\t \"thumbnailUrl\": \"https:\\\/\\\/www.interactivebrokers.com\\\/campus\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/sites\\\/2\\\/2020\\\/06\\\/abstract-numbers-swirl.jpg\",\n\t \"keywords\": [\n\t \"fintech\",\n\t \"Quant\"\n\t ],\n\t \"articleSection\": [\n\t \"Data Science\",\n\t \"Quant\",\n\t \"Quant Development\",\n\t \"Quant Options\"\n\t ],\n\t \"inLanguage\": \"en-US\",\n\t \"potentialAction\": [\n\t {\n\t \"@type\": \"CommentAction\",\n\t \"name\": \"Comment\",\n\t \"target\": [\n\t \"https:\\\/\\\/www.interactivebrokers.com\\\/campus\\\/ibkr-quant-news\\\/is-it-math-or-human-nature\\\/#respond\"\n\t ]\n\t }\n\t ]\n\t },\n\t {\n\t \"@type\": \"WebPage\",\n\t \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/www.interactivebrokers.com\\\/campus\\\/ibkr-quant-news\\\/is-it-math-or-human-nature\\\/\",\n\t \"url\": \"https:\\\/\\\/www.interactivebrokers.com\\\/campus\\\/ibkr-quant-news\\\/is-it-math-or-human-nature\\\/\",\n\t \"name\": \"Is it Math or Human Nature? 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