{"id":228029,"date":"2025-07-29T12:23:41","date_gmt":"2025-07-29T16:23:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=228029"},"modified":"2025-08-06T14:46:50","modified_gmt":"2025-08-06T18:46:50","slug":"gdp-and-central-bank-rate-trades-for-tomorrow","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/gdp-and-central-bank-rate-trades-for-tomorrow\/","title":{"rendered":"GDP and Central Bank Rate Trades for Tomorrow: July 29, 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>The EU and US are set to release GDP numbers tomorrow morning and the expectations are for 0% and 2.4%. For the EU, I like the risk-reward profiles of the <a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/?loginType=1&amp;forwardTo=100&amp;clt=0&amp;ip2loc=OFF#\/market-details?id=781673006%7C20260430%7C0.4\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u201cNo\u201d<\/a> answers at the 0.4%, 0.65% and 0.9% thresholds, priced at $0.85, $0.93 and $0.96. The EU\u2019s economy has been sluggish, and a growth rate exceeding 0.4% carries a probability near zero in my opinion. Furthermore, the last time GDP posted a robust figure above 0.4% was in the second quarter of 2022, three years ago.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"669\" height=\"61\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/07\/Picture1-FT-7-29-25.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-228036 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/07\/Picture1-FT-7-29-25.png 669w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/07\/Picture1-FT-7-29-25-300x27.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 669px) 100vw, 669px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 669px; aspect-ratio: 669\/61;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"518\" height=\"441\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/07\/Picture2-FT-7-29-25.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-228037 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/07\/Picture2-FT-7-29-25.png 518w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/07\/Picture2-FT-7-29-25-300x255.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 518px) 100vw, 518px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 518px; aspect-ratio: 518\/441;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-yes-for-us-gdp-no-for-us-recession\"><strong>\u201cYes\u201d For US GDP, \u201cNo\u201d For US Recession<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>And for the US I like the risk-reward profile of the <a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/?loginType=1&amp;forwardTo=100&amp;clt=0&amp;ip2loc=OFF#\/market-details?id=712856689%7C20250925%7C0\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u201cYes\u201d<\/a> answer at 0%, which costs $0.94. After declining in the first quarter of this year due to a surge in imports, today\u2019s trade numbers reflected a strong rebound in net exports, which bodes well for a robust recovery tomorrow. Also, the <a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/?loginType=1&amp;forwardTo=100&amp;clt=0&amp;ip2loc=OFF#\/market-details?id=726203920%7C20250925%7C0&amp;detail=contract_details\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u201cNo\u201d<\/a> answer to a US recession is additionally undervalued at $0.93 in my view, because the chance of a number below 0 Wednesday morning is nearly impossible considering the real-time data existing of second-quarter activity. These instruments expire in roughly two months once the final print is released. But an important consideration is that GDP revisions have tended to be narrow over the years and not significant. Finally, holding contracts for longer time periods benefits investors through interest-like incentive coupons that currently annualize at 3.83% but are subject to proportionate shifts in the fed funds rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"554\" height=\"48\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/07\/Picture3-FT-7-29-25-1.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-228043 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/07\/Picture3-FT-7-29-25-1.png 554w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/07\/Picture3-FT-7-29-25-1-300x26.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 554px) 100vw, 554px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 554px; aspect-ratio: 554\/48;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"556\" height=\"54\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/07\/Picture4-FT-7-29-25.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-228039 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/07\/Picture4-FT-7-29-25.png 556w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/07\/Picture4-FT-7-29-25-300x29.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 556px) 100vw, 556px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 556px; aspect-ratio: 556\/54;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-fed-and-boc-to-hold\"><strong>Fed and BoC to Hold<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>I\u2019m confident that the Fed and Bank of Canada will keep rates steady tomorrow, and I like the risk-reward profiles of the \u201cYes\u201d answers at the <a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/?loginType=1&amp;forwardTo=100&amp;clt=0&amp;ip2loc=OFF#\/market-details?id=658663572%7C20250730%7C4.125&amp;detail=contract_details\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">4.125%<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/?loginType=1&amp;forwardTo=100&amp;clt=0&amp;ip2loc=OFF#\/market-details?id=726203939%7C20250730%7C2.25\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">2.5%<\/a> thresholds for tomorrow\u2019s meetings. The prices are currently $0.94 and $0.95.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-resized\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"558\" height=\"48\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/07\/Picture5-FT-7-29-25-1.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-228044 lazyload\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 558px; aspect-ratio: 558\/48;width:560px;height:auto\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/07\/Picture5-FT-7-29-25-1.png 558w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/07\/Picture5-FT-7-29-25-1-300x26.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 558px) 100vw, 558px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"553\" height=\"51\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/07\/Picture6-FT-7-29-25.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-228041 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/07\/Picture6-FT-7-29-25.png 553w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/07\/Picture6-FT-7-29-25-300x28.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 553px) 100vw, 553px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 553px; aspect-ratio: 553\/51;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>S<em>ource for Images: ForecastEx<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of July 29, 2025.<\/em> <em>Red circle around the thresholds was inserted by J. Torres to highlight his preferred \u201cNo\u201d answers throughout different levels.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders\u2019 Academy video&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=ceR-weGZSXc\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">here<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The EU and US are set to release GDP numbers tomorrow morning and the expectations are for 0% and 2.4%. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":903,"featured_media":189492,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[18929,18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[],"contributors-categories":[13760],"class_list":{"0":"post-228029","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-forecast-trader","8":"category-macro","9":"category-north-america","10":"category-region","11":"category-securities","12":"category-text-articles","13":"category-traders-insight","14":"contributors-categories-ibkr-macroeconomics"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.4) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>GDP and Central Bank Rate Trades for Tomorrow: July 29, 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In this capacity, he is responsible for economic analysis, economic commentary and educational content focused on the economy. Prior to joining Interactive Brokers, Jos\u00e9 spent 6 years working as an economist in the United States government within the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) and the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). During his time with the U.S. government, Jos\u00e9 frequently led presentations covering economic conditions and forecasts for elected officials, political appointees and senior management. He also built economic models, consulted with private sector executives, contributed to the modernization of economic processes and gained recognition for predicting the inflationary episode of the 2020s. Jos\u00e9 has also been a professor of economics at the City University of New York and holds a master\u2019s degree in financial economics from West Texas A&amp;M University. His skillset includes the ability to communicate and analyze complex economic topics in English and in Spanish and throughout his career, he has been interviewed by media outlets including Bloomberg, CNBC, CNN, WSJ, AP, Yahoo Finance, Cheddar, Business Insider, Seeking Alpha, PBS, FOX, Economic Times, Univision, Telemundo and others.\",\n\t            \"url\": \"https:\\\/\\\/www.interactivebrokers.com\\\/campus\\\/author\\\/jose-torres\\\/\"\n\t        }\n\t    ]\n\t}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO Premium plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"GDP and Central Bank Rate Trades for Tomorrow: July 29, 2025","description":"The EU and US are set to release GDP numbers tomorrow morning and the expectations are for 0% and 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