{"id":227950,"date":"2025-07-28T11:00:00","date_gmt":"2025-07-28T15:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=227950"},"modified":"2025-07-29T03:47:54","modified_gmt":"2025-07-29T07:47:54","slug":"weekly-market-recap-week-of-july-28-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/weekly-market-recap-week-of-july-28-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Weekly Market Recap: Week of July 28, 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-the-week-in-review\">The week in review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>New home sales rose to 627k<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Durable goods orders fell -9.3% m\/m<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Markit U.S. composite PMI rose to 54.6 from 52.9<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-the-week-ahead\">The week ahead<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>2Q GDP (first est.)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Nonfarm payrolls<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-thought-of-the-week\">Thought of the Week<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Homeownership remains a distant dream for many Americans, with a lack of affordable housing boxing many consumers out of the market. Some argue that the recent rise in mortgage rates is largely to blame. However, the affordability issue doesn\u2019t stem from the elevated mortgage rates of today but from the artificially low mortgage rates of the last 20 years and the resulting rise in home prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>While elevated compared to the last decade, mortgage rates today are not outrageously high. At 6.74%, current 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rates are lower than they have been 60% of the time since 1971. At this rate, 31% of the median household\u2019s annual pre-tax income would go toward mortgage payments. This is up from 19% in 1971 but down from over 54% in 1981. Instead, higher home prices, and consequently higher required down payments, are the issue. In 1971, a 20% down payment on a single-family home consumed 57% of the median household\u2019s annual income, and around 80% for much of the \u201890s. However, excessive demand spurred by low interest rates after the dot-com bubble burst and the Great Financial Crisis, along with sluggish building activity, pushed home prices significantly higher. As a result, a 20% down payment on a single-family home now represents a whopping 100% of annual household income.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Lower interest rates could only address part of the housing affordability crisis, at least in the short run. While lower rates would mean smaller monthly mortgage payments for consumers, they might also pressure housing prices higher, making down payments even more difficult to afford. We don\u2019t expect the Fed to cut rates next week, but even if it opts to ease policy in the months ahead, an immediate bounce in the housing market is unlikely.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"999\" height=\"400\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/07\/Screenshot-2025-07-28-102107.png\" alt=\"Drivers of housing affordability\" class=\"wp-image-227951 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/07\/Screenshot-2025-07-28-102107.png 999w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/07\/Screenshot-2025-07-28-102107-700x280.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/07\/Screenshot-2025-07-28-102107-300x120.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/07\/Screenshot-2025-07-28-102107-768x308.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 999px) 100vw, 999px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 999px; aspect-ratio: 999\/400;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Chart of the Week: Census Bureau, Freddie Mac, J.P. Morgan Asset<br>Management. Annual income data are interpolated into monthly<br>values, and 2024 and 2025 figures are JPMAM forecasts.<br>Thought of the week: Census Bureau, Freddie Mac, J.P. Morgan Asset<br>Management. Calculations based on monthly average 30-year fixedrate mortgage rate, the median sales price of a new privately owned<br>single-family home and the annual median household&#8217;s income.<br>Assumes a 20% down payment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u2014<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Originally Posted July 28, 2025 \u2013\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/am.jpmorgan.com\/us\/en\/asset-management\/adv\/insights\/market-insights\/market-updates\/weekly-market-recap\/\">Weekly Market Recap<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Past performance does not guarantee future results.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Diversification does not guarantee investment returns and does not eliminate the risk of loss.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Opinions and estimates offered constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice, as are statements of financial market trends, which are based on current market conditions. We believe the information provided here is reliable, but do not warrant its accuracy or completeness. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. The views and strategies described may not be appropriate for all investors. This material has been prepared for informational purposes only, and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied on for, accounting, legal or tax advice. References to future returns are not promises or even estimates of actual returns a client portfolio may achieve. Any forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be relied upon as advice or interpreted as a recommendation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Market Insights program provides comprehensive data and commentary on global markets without reference to products. Designed as a tool to help clients understand the markets and support investment decision-making, the program explores the implications of current economic data and changing market conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The J.P. Morgan Asset Management Market Insights and Portfolio Insights programs, as non-independent research, have not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, nor are they subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This document is a general communication being provided for informational purposes only. It is educational in nature and not designed to be taken as advice or a recommendation for any specific investment product, strategy, plan feature<br>or other purpose in any jurisdiction, nor is it a commitment from J.P. Morgan Asset Management or any of its subsidiaries to participate in any of the transactions mentioned herein. Any examples used are generic, hypothetical and for illustration purposes only. This material does not contain sufficient information to support an investment decision and it should not be relied upon by you in evaluating the merits of investing in any securities or products. In addition, users should make an independent assessment of the legal, regulatory, tax, credit, and accounting implications and determine, together with their own financial professional, if any investment mentioned herein is believed to be appropriate to their personal goals. Investors should ensure that they obtain all available relevant information before making any investment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Any forecasts, figures, opinions or investment techniques and strategies set out are for information purposes only, based on certain assumptions and current market conditions and are subject to change without prior notice. All information presented herein is considered to be accurate at the time of production, but no warranty of accuracy is given and no liability in respect of any error or omission is accepted. It should be noted that investment involves risks, the value of investments and the income from them may fluctuate in accordance with market conditions and taxation agreements and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Both past performance and yields are not reliable indicators of current and future results.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>J.P. Morgan Asset Management is the brand for the asset management business of JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. and its affiliates worldwide.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Telephone calls and electronic communications may be monitored and\/or recorded.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Personal data will be collected, stored and processed by J.P. Morgan Asset Management in accordance with our privacy policies at https:\/\/www.jpmorgan.com\/privacy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This communication is issued in the United States, by J.P. Morgan Investment Management Inc. or J.P. Morgan Alternative Asset Management, Inc., both regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If you are a person with a disability and need additional support in viewing the material, please call us at 1-800-343-1113 for assistance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Copyright 2025 JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. All rights reserved.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><sup>\u00a9<\/sup>JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co., July 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Unless otherwise stated, all data is as of July 28, 2025 or as of most recently available.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>This week&#8217;s chart highlights the impact of high home prices, down payments and mortgage rates on housing affordability.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":186,"featured_media":227951,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[],"contributors-categories":[13608],"class_list":{"0":"post-227950","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-macro","8":"category-north-america","9":"category-region","10":"category-securities","11":"category-text-articles","12":"category-traders-insight","13":"contributors-categories-j-p-morgan-asset-management"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.5) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Weekly Market Recap: Week of July 28, 2025<\/title>\n<meta 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