{"id":227893,"date":"2025-07-25T12:32:02","date_gmt":"2025-07-25T16:32:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=227893"},"modified":"2025-07-25T16:34:01","modified_gmt":"2025-07-25T20:34:01","slug":"trade-of-the-day-thursdays-initial-claims-between-211k-and-250k-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/forecast-trader\/trade-of-the-day-thursdays-initial-claims-between-211k-and-250k-2\/","title":{"rendered":"Trade of The Day: Thursday\u2019s Initial Claims Between 211K and 250K: July 25, 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Today\u2019s trade of the day is the same one I laid out last week. I\u2019m expecting initial unemployment claims to stabilize around 220k considering moves to 210k or under have been significantly rare in the past twelve months, occurring just three times near the New Year. Meanwhile, a jump above 250k has only happened once during that time period. Against this backdrop, I find the risk-reward profiles of the \u201cYeses\u201d at 200k<\/a> and 210k and the \u201cNo\u201d<\/a> at 250k attractive. The thresholds are currently going for $0.96, $0.84 and $0.97.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Unemployment<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\"IBKR<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\"IBKR<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Source for Images: ForecastEx<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of July 25, 2025.<\/em> Red circles around the thresholds were inserted by J. Torres to highlight his preferred \u201cYes\u201d and \u201cNo\u201d answers throughout different levels.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders\u2019 Academy video here<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Today\u2019s trade of the day is the same one I laid out last week.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":903,"featured_media":223537,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[18929,18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[17937,15688],"contributors-categories":[13760],"class_list":{"0":"post-227893","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-forecast-trader","8":"category-macro","9":"category-north-america","10":"category-region","11":"category-securities","12":"category-text-articles","13":"category-traders-insight","14":"tag-ibkr-forecasttrader","15":"tag-unemployment-claims","16":"contributors-categories-ibkr-macroeconomics"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nTrade of The Day: Thursday\u2019s Initial Claims Between 211K and 250K: July 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