{"id":227878,"date":"2025-07-25T05:25:20","date_gmt":"2025-07-25T09:25:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=227878"},"modified":"2025-07-28T03:44:47","modified_gmt":"2025-07-28T07:44:47","slug":"chart-advisor-japan-the-new-argentina","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/chart-advisor-japan-the-new-argentina\/","title":{"rendered":"Chart Advisor: Japan \u2013 The New Argentina?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

By\u00a0C. Theodore Hicks II, CMT, CFP, CKA<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

1\/\u00a0Small Caps Beginning to Move<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

2\/ International \u2013 The Bigger Move<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

3\/ Japan \u2013 Biggest Move<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

4\/ Japan = Argentina?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investopedia is partnering with CMT Association on this newsletter. \u00a0The contents of this newsletter are for informational and educational purposes only, however, and do not constitute investing advice. The guest authors, which may sell research to investors, and may trade or hold positions in securities mentioned herein do not represent the views of CMT Association or Investopedia. Please consult a financial advisor for investment recommendations and services.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

1\/<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Small Caps Breaking Through<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Yesterday, we looked at IWM, the iShares Russell 2000. We said that we need to see IWM break through that blue-gray rectangle. While it has not broken through just yet, Wednesday\u2019s action was a very strong move.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

While Wednesday\u2019s price action could be defined as buyable, we generally want to see the 50-day moving average above the 200-day before we buy. However, the question I ask is simply: do you have your buy criteria clearly defined? <\/strong>If not, develop that first.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

One more point before moving on. That blue-gray rectangle was drawn and left on my chart for a reason. When I previously examined the chart, I determined I am skeptical of this position until it passes through this area. Wednesday\u2019s price action is admirable, and it is encouraging for the broad market\u2019s ability to keep going. But that doesn\u2019t mean I\u2019m buying it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

2\/<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

International \u2013 The Bigger Move<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

While we like what we see with the small-cap ETF, do not ignore the international space. Chart 2 is VEA, the Vanguard Developed Markets ETF. Yesterday, it rocketed higher on the back of the news of President Trump\u2019s trade deal with Japan. We\u2019ll take a look at that in our third chart. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

One of the myths that I try to dispel in my book, Evidence-Based Investing <\/em>is that you must be diversified. Yes, there are benefits to diversification. But don\u2019t be so diversified that you have diluted your winners.  Ordinarily, you will hear financial advisors advocate including international in your portfolio. As for me, I only want it in a client portfolio if it is strong. Well, VEA certainly looks like strength to me.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, as suggested above, we are not buying anything unless it hits both<\/strong> our trend template and<\/strong> our specific entry criteria. VEA has met the trend template for a while now. But we have not seen the specific entry criteria. Do you have specific criteria?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

3\/<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Japan \u2013 The Biggest Move<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

For our third chart, we will take a look at Japan via EWJ the iShares Japan ETF. If your buy criteria is to buy strength, yesterday, this was one of the strongest movers.  However, from my perspective, this is a pretty ugly chart.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The big move higher might <\/strong>indeed be sustainable. But I see a lot of erratic behavior. I want to see a battle between the bulls and bears that contracts price. Then, our buy criteria is to buy as the bulls are victorious and move the position higher from that price contraction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Wednesday\u2019s move in EWJ was an impressive news driven move. Is it sustainable?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

4\/<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Japan = Argentina?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

For our final chart for today, let\u2019s look at another single country ETF that also had a massive news driven move.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is ARGT the Global X Argentina ETF. The red circle just left of center, that\u2019s highlighting election day and the day after the election when President Milei was elected. That was a massive gap higher at the open the next day. Could you have bought that? Sure. But we would not. We are not going to chase anything. Prior to that move, the ETF was breaking down.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But, once that election driven gap higher happened, it\u2019s now on our radar. Now we begin looking to see: will it be a sustained move? Or was it a flash in the pan? We did trade ARGT a couple of times but for reasons I explain in my book, we are rarely holding something for a long term. (Ultimately, I just do not believe most of you are actually long-term investors. Perhaps I\u2019ll elaborate on why in tomorrow\u2019s newsletter.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Shortly after that election, we see ARGT begin to move sideways. As it began to move out of that area, that\u2019s what we would consider a good entry point.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If you are enjoying this week\u2019s newsletter, be sure to connect with me on\u00a0LinkedIn\u00a0<\/a>or follow me on\u00a0Twitter<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

—<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Originally posted 24th July 2025<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By\u00a0C. Theodore Hicks II, CMT, CFP, CKA 1\/\u00a0Small Caps Beginning to Move 2\/ International \u2013 The Bigger Move 3\/ Japan \u2013 Biggest Move 4\/ Japan = Argentina? Investopedia is partnering with CMT Association on this newsletter. \u00a0The contents of this newsletter are for informational and educational purposes only, however, and do not constitute investing advice. […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":186,"featured_media":227879,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"footnotes":""},"categories":[14,18,6,8,9,1031,22,23,26,3],"tags":[1351,1941,208,6687,2632],"contributors-categories":[13686],"class_list":{"0":"post-227878","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-etfs","8":"category-macro","9":"category-north-america","10":"category-region","11":"category-securities","12":"category-south-america","13":"category-stocks","14":"category-technical-analysis","15":"category-text-articles","16":"category-traders-insight","17":"tag-argt","18":"tag-ewj","19":"tag-iwm","20":"tag-iwv","21":"tag-vea","22":"contributors-categories-investopedia"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nChart Advisor: Japan \u2013 The New Argentina?<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Yesterday, we looked at IWM, the iShares Russell 2000. 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