{"id":227792,"date":"2025-07-24T09:30:00","date_gmt":"2025-07-24T13:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=227792"},"modified":"2025-07-25T03:44:08","modified_gmt":"2025-07-25T07:44:08","slug":"tariff-and-powell-risk-drive-elevated-cross-asset-vrps","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/options\/tariff-and-powell-risk-drive-elevated-cross-asset-vrps\/","title":{"rendered":"Tariff and Powell Risk Drive Elevated Cross-Asset VRPs"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Link to Report:&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/go.cboe.com\/e\/77532\/tility-Digest-2025Jul21-u1-pdf\/fn8vjr\/1260764683\/h\/UpAs5-_SgX1vOzxgGWtxf5cBZSLmA8cAaXO0nUCSvg4\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Macro Volatility Digest<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-what-stands-out\"><strong>WHAT STANDS OUT:<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>While overall levels of implied volatility remain muted across asset classes, what stands out is the even lower levels of realized volatility. 1M realized volatility for equities, rates, credit, and FX (e.g. USDJPY, EURUSD) are all at or near 1-year lows. In fact, the volatility risk premium (difference between implied vs. realized volatility) is near a 1-year high for a number of asset classes. Equities screens as having the richest cross-asset VRP, with the SPX<sup>\u00ae<\/sup>\u00a01M implied-realized vol spread widening to a high of 5.2 pts (92nd percentile high). In other words, while implied volatility is low in absolute terms, it\u2019s not cheap from a carry perspective.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The divergence between the RTY-SPX and QQQ-SPX vol spreads continued last week, with the RTY-SPX 1M vol spread widening to a YTD high of 8.5% while the QQQ-SPX vol spread narrowed to near a 1-year low of 3.0%. The compression of QQQ vol relative to SPX is especially notable as we approach Tech earnings.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Interestingly as we near the August 1st tariff deadline, we\u2019re starting to see some risk premium being priced into the SPX vol surface for the event, as shown by the \u201ckink\u201d in the term structure (see below). Notably we did not see any event risk priced in ahead of the July 9th and Apr 2nd tariff announcements. Does this mean investors are starting to believe this is a \u201cfinal\u201d deadline for negotiations? Perhaps. Though in our view, the kink is more likely due to the NFP number to be released the same day. Currently, SPX options are implying ~1.3% move for Aug 1st.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-chart-kink-in-spx-term-structure-for-aug-1st-event-risk\"><strong>Chart: \u201cKink\u201d in SPX Term Structure for Aug 1st Event Risk<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/cdn.cboe.com\/insights\/471e8d8d43154383a553aa8451438afd\" alt=\"\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><sup><em>Source: Cboe<\/em><\/sup><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/go.cboe.com\/e\/77532\/tility-Digest-2025Jul21-u1-pdf\/fn8vjr\/1260764683\/h\/UpAs5-_SgX1vOzxgGWtxf5cBZSLmA8cAaXO0nUCSvg4\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" target=\"_blank\">[Download Full Report Here]<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/go.cboe.com\/e\/77532\/cae-utm-content-subscribe-here\/fn8vjv\/1260764683\/h\/UpAs5-_SgX1vOzxgGWtxf5cBZSLmA8cAaXO0nUCSvg4\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" target=\"_blank\">[Subscribe Here]<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8212;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Originally Posted on July 21, 2025 &#8211; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cboe.com\/insights\/posts\/tariff-and-powell-risk-drive-elevated-cross-asset-vr-ps\/\">Tariff and P<\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cboe.com\/insights\/posts\/tariff-and-powell-risk-drive-elevated-cross-asset-vr-ps\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">o<\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cboe.com\/insights\/posts\/tariff-and-powell-risk-drive-elevated-cross-asset-vr-ps\/\">well Risk Drive Elevated Cross-Asset VRPs<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>While overall levels of implied volatility remain muted across asset classes, what stands out is the even lower levels of realized volatility.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1221,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"footnotes":""},"categories":[6,19,8,9,26,3],"tags":[],"contributors-categories":[13776],"class_list":{"0":"post-227792","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","6":"category-north-america","7":"category-options","8":"category-region","9":"category-securities","10":"category-text-articles","11":"category-traders-insight","12":"contributors-categories-cboe-global-markets"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.4) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Tariff and Powell Risk Drive Elevated Cross-Asset VRPs<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"While 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