{"id":227637,"date":"2025-07-22T12:45:18","date_gmt":"2025-07-22T16:45:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=227637"},"modified":"2025-07-22T12:45:13","modified_gmt":"2025-07-22T16:45:13","slug":"in-the-dicey-groove","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/ibkr-quant-news\/in-the-dicey-groove\/","title":{"rendered":"In the (Dicey) Groove"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

The article is as of July 21, 2025.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Quant traders, know this:  New options for August expiration trade July 21. <\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

And TSLA is back in the Momentum Daily Trading Ideas portfolio at EDGE<\/strong>.  Mathematically, it\u2019s best buying 1.0, selling 10.0, reflecting its momentum characteristics.  Since Apr 10, that would have given you 31% in TSLA in 33 days \u2013 close to 1% per day. It\u2019s at 8.0 now.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If you\u2019re investing in US equities, Market Structure EDGE can help you see WHEN to come and go. For more on that, join the next live EDGE Discussion<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And the crypto boom continues.<\/strong>  Could you use EDGE for bitcoin et al? Build a cryptocurrencies portfolio. Mine has ARBK, COIN, CRCL, GREE, HUT, IREN, MARA, MSTR, RIOT, WULF, XYZ.  Maybe there are others it should include. Demand in the Crypto Portfolio is 8.0 and ticking down for two days, Supply is 43.5% in the portfolio and rising for two days.  That data says the group remains strong, though momentum has stalled. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The popularity of cryptocurrencies and stablecoins is undeniable.<\/em> And yet anytime \u2013 internet stocks with no revenue, SPACs with no business, meme stocks, madness of crowds \u2013 a thing lacking value suddenly garners it, it\u2019s a bubble. People don\u2019t know until it\u2019s too late.  I\u2019m not knocking this category; I\u2019m observing history.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There are global disconnects. <\/strong>Take Germany.  Its economy hasn\u2019t grown materially since 2017. It\u2019s contracted the past two years.  The stock market index, the DAX, is up 90% the past five years.  Fundamentals don\u2019t necessarily drive stocks. There is nothing fundamental about cryptocurrencies and stablecoins. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

So, keep your wits about you.  Use math.  Speaking of which:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Broad Sentiment<\/u><\/strong>. As measured by EDGE, it\u2019s 5.7 and falling from a peak near 7.0, and Supply (Reg SHO Rule 201 data) is 52.3% and rising.  Yes, the market is more short than long even as it rises.  How?  Market-makers under regulatory exemptions are creating stock to fill orders.  It speaks to pervasive use of Exchange Traded Funds.  Since May 20, Broad Sentiment has averaged 5.8.  But don\u2019t get complacent. The world is full of outliers right now.  It\u2019s like a mini-Pandemic.  Like tariffs were The Plague that turned out to be allergies. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Context<\/u><\/strong>.  Looking at the market\u2019s cadence and calendar, new options trade today and earnings continue apace. VZ, T, TMUS, NOW, GM, GOOGL, IBM, CMG, TSLA, AAL, LUV, QS, HON are among the many reporting this week (there are a great many more).  Always check before you buy or sell. Earnings can alter outcomes.  And on Counterparty Tuesday Jul 22, banks will square books on options, and Wednesday is free air where we\u2019ll find out if there\u2019s turbulence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Divergence<\/u><\/strong>.  There are 16 in the Low Volatility Daily Trading Ideas portfolio, 13 in Momentum DTI.  Solid numbers.  Again, check the earnings calendar.  Unsurprisingly, MARA, from the crypto portfolio is there. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

There are times when there\u2019s an undeniable groove.<\/strong> Like Scottie (why not go by Scott?) Scheffler on the golf course.  He\u2019s got everything working.  Sometimes it\u2019s that way in the market.  Last year, the market took a hard turn south after July month-end options-expirations. Beware.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

PS \u2013 Come join the next live Discussion<\/a>! We\u2019ll have a read on how August may start. And sign up<\/a> for our FREE daily Market Desk Notes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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