{"id":227473,"date":"2025-07-18T12:02:10","date_gmt":"2025-07-18T16:02:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=227473"},"modified":"2025-07-18T12:21:12","modified_gmt":"2025-07-18T16:21:12","slug":"trade-of-the-day-hong-kong-cpi-1-4","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/prediction-market\/trade-of-the-day-hong-kong-cpi-1-4\/","title":{"rendered":"Trade of The Day: Hong Kong CPI &gt;1.4%: July 18, 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">My forecast for this Monday\u2019s Hong Kong Consumer Price Index (CPI) is 1.8% and I believe the \u201cYes\u201d answer at the 1.4% threshold is undervalued, costing just $0.72. I think there\u2019s less than a 10% chance that it comes in at 1.4% or under, which is what\u2019s required for \u201cTeam Yes\u201d to lose here. For context, the median estimate is at 2%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1050\" height=\"765\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/07\/Picture1-9.png\" alt=\"Historical Hong Kong Consumer Price Index and pricing of IBKR ForecastTrader Contract with 1,4% threshold\" class=\"wp-image-227474 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/07\/Picture1-9.png 1050w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/07\/Picture1-9-700x510.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/07\/Picture1-9-300x219.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/07\/Picture1-9-768x560.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1050px) 100vw, 1050px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1050px; aspect-ratio: 1050\/765;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"100\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/07\/Picture2-July-18-FT-1100x100.png\" alt=\"IBKR ForecastTrader Contract asking if Hong Kong Consumer Price Index will exceed 1.4% in June\" class=\"wp-image-227475 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/07\/Picture2-July-18-FT-1100x100.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/07\/Picture2-July-18-FT-700x64.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/07\/Picture2-July-18-FT-300x27.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/07\/Picture2-July-18-FT-768x70.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/07\/Picture2-July-18-FT.png 1337w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/100;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-consumer-sentiment-revision-offers-opportunity\"><strong>Consumer Sentiment Revision Offers Opportunity<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Consumer sentiment revisions are typically marginal and below 1. Today\u2019s flash reading arrived at 61.8 and there\u2019s a minimal chance of a 3.8 point downside adjustment or 2.3 northward edit two Fridays from now for the final reading, which is what this forecast contract is based on. In light of the historical trends, I like buying the \u201cYeses\u201d at 56 and 58 and the \u201cNos\u201d at 64 and 66 which are going for $0.95, $0.87, $0.88 and $0.96.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"799\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/07\/Picture3-6-1100x799.png\" alt=\"Consumer sentiment revisions are typically marginal\" class=\"wp-image-227476 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/07\/Picture3-6-1100x799.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/07\/Picture3-6-700x509.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/07\/Picture3-6-300x218.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/07\/Picture3-6-768x558.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/07\/Picture3-6.png 1430w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/799;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"287\" height=\"435\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/07\/Picture4-1.png\" alt=\"Pricing of IBKR ForecastTrader Contracts regarding Consumer Sentiment I\" class=\"wp-image-227477 lazyload\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 287px; aspect-ratio: 287\/435;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-consumer-confidence-opportunity\"><strong>Consumer Confidence Opportunity<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Conference Board\u2019s Consumer Confidence Index hasn\u2019t been at or below 84 since May 2014 and I believe the \u201cYes\u201d answer at that threshold is undervalued at just $0.94. Not even the depths of the pandemic produced a figure that low.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1076\" height=\"111\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/07\/Picture5-1.png\" alt=\"IBKR ForecastTrader Contract asking if the US Consumer Confidence Index  will exceed 84 in July\" class=\"wp-image-227478 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/07\/Picture5-1.png 1076w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/07\/Picture5-1-700x72.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/07\/Picture5-1-300x31.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/07\/Picture5-1-768x79.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1076px) 100vw, 1076px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1076px; aspect-ratio: 1076\/111;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">S<em>ource for Images: ForecastEx<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of July 18, 2025.<\/em> <em>Red circles around the thresholds were inserted by J. Torres to highlight his preferred \u201cYes\u201d and \u201cNo\u201d answers throughout different levels.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders\u2019 Academy video&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=ceR-weGZSXc\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">here<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>My forecast for this Monday\u2019s Hong Kong Consumer Price Index (CPI) is 1.8% and I believe the \u201cYes\u201d answer at the 1.4% threshold is undervalued, costing just $0.72. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":903,"featured_media":191936,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[18929,18,6,9,26,3],"tags":[],"contributors-categories":[13760],"class_list":["post-227473","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-prediction-market","category-macro","category-north-america","category-securities","category-text-articles","category-traders-insight","contributors-categories-ibkr-macroeconomics"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v28.4) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Trade of The Day: Hong Kong CPI &gt;1.4%: July 18, 2025<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" 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