{"id":227436,"date":"2025-07-17T12:27:50","date_gmt":"2025-07-17T16:27:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=227436"},"modified":"2025-07-17T12:56:17","modified_gmt":"2025-07-17T16:56:17","slug":"trade-of-the-day-tomorrows-housing-starts-1-2-million","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/prediction-market\/trade-of-the-day-tomorrows-housing-starts-1-2-million\/","title":{"rendered":"Trade of The Day: Tomorrow\u2019s Housing Starts &gt; 1.2 million: July 17, 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>My real-time gauges of construction activity point to less than a 2% chance of housing starts failing to exceed 1.2 million seasonally adjusted annualized units (SAAU) in tomorrow morning\u2019s June print. The last time the figure was below 1.2 million was during the depths of the pandemic in May 2020, and 60 months of reports following that number have all topped 1.2 million. I like the \u201cYes\u201d at 1.2 million which is a value in my opinion, costing just $0.80. For context, the median estimate is 1.3 million.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"968\" height=\"80\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/07\/Picture-1-July-17-FT.png\" alt=\"IBKR ForecastTrader Contract asking is US housing starts will exceed 1.2 million in June.\" class=\"wp-image-227439 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/07\/Picture-1-July-17-FT.png 968w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/07\/Picture-1-July-17-FT-700x58.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/07\/Picture-1-July-17-FT-300x25.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/07\/Picture-1-July-17-FT-768x63.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 968px) 100vw, 968px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 968px; aspect-ratio: 968\/80;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-permits-arrive-in-same-report\"><strong>Permits Arrive in Same Report<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Similarly, the last time permits didn\u2019t exceed 1.35 million SAAU was June 2020, so I like the risk-reward profile of the \u201cYes\u201d at that threshold, which costs just $0.75. Furthermore, I also like the \u201cNo\u201d at 1.5 million at $0.96 because real estate conditions are too weak and mortgage costs are too elevated for tomorrow\u2019s print to jump up above that figure, a level exceeded only once in the past 15 reports. For context, the median estimate is 1.39 million.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"967\" height=\"78\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/07\/Picture-2-July-17-FT.png\" alt=\"IBKR ForecastTrader Contract asking if US building permits will exceed 1.35 million in June\" class=\"wp-image-227440 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/07\/Picture-2-July-17-FT.png 967w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/07\/Picture-2-July-17-FT-700x56.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/07\/Picture-2-July-17-FT-300x24.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/07\/Picture-2-July-17-FT-768x62.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 967px) 100vw, 967px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 967px; aspect-ratio: 967\/78;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"967\" height=\"81\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/07\/Picture-3-July-17-FT.png\" alt=\"IBKR ForecastTrader Contract asking if US building permits will exceed 1.5 million in June\" class=\"wp-image-227441 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/07\/Picture-3-July-17-FT.png 967w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/07\/Picture-3-July-17-FT-700x59.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/07\/Picture-3-July-17-FT-300x25.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/07\/Picture-3-July-17-FT-768x64.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 967px) 100vw, 967px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 967px; aspect-ratio: 967\/81;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>S<em>ource for Images: ForecastEx<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of July 17, 2025.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders\u2019 Academy video&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=ceR-weGZSXc\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">here<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>My real-time gauges of construction activity point to less than a 2% chance of housing starts failing to exceed 1.2 million seasonally adjusted annualized units (SAAU) in tomorrow morning\u2019s June print. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":903,"featured_media":215260,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"footnotes":""},"categories":[18929,18,9,26,3],"tags":[18755,18284],"contributors-categories":[13760],"class_list":{"0":"post-227436","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-prediction-market","8":"category-macro","9":"category-securities","10":"category-text-articles","11":"category-traders-insight","12":"tag-ibkr-forecasttrader-contracts","13":"tag-us-housing-starts","14":"contributors-categories-ibkr-macroeconomics"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.7) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Trade of The Day: Tomorrow\u2019s Housing Starts &gt; 1.2 million: July 17, 2025<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"My real-time gauges of construction activity point to less than a 2% chance of housing starts failing to exceed 1.2 million seasonally adjusted...\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/227436\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Trade of The Day: Tomorrow\u2019s Housing Starts &gt; 1.2 million: July 17, 2025 | IBKR Campus US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"My real-time gauges of construction activity point to less than a 2% chance of housing starts failing to exceed 1.2 million seasonally adjusted annualized units (SAAU) in tomorrow morning\u2019s June print.\" \/>\n<meta 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His skillset includes the ability to communicate and analyze complex economic topics in English and in Spanish and throughout his career, he has been interviewed by media outlets including Bloomberg, CNBC, CNN, WSJ, AP, Yahoo Finance, Cheddar, Business Insider, Seeking Alpha, PBS, FOX, Economic Times, Univision, Telemundo and others.\",\n\t            \"url\": \"https:\\\/\\\/www.interactivebrokers.com\\\/campus\\\/author\\\/jose-torres\\\/\"\n\t        }\n\t    ]\n\t}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO Premium plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Trade of The Day: Tomorrow\u2019s Housing Starts &gt; 1.2 million: July 17, 2025","description":"My real-time gauges of construction activity point to less than a 2% chance of housing starts failing to exceed 1.2 million seasonally adjusted...","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/227436\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"Trade of The Day: Tomorrow\u2019s Housing Starts &gt; 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