{"id":227386,"date":"2025-07-16T11:42:25","date_gmt":"2025-07-16T15:42:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=227386"},"modified":"2025-07-16T11:46:33","modified_gmt":"2025-07-16T15:46:33","slug":"tariff-tightrope-will-markets-slip","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/podcasts\/ibkr-podcasts\/tariff-tightrope-will-markets-slip\/","title":{"rendered":"Tariff Tightrope: Will Markets Slip?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Markets are riding a tariff tightrope as traders weigh rising rates, inflation concerns, and looming trade pressures. Host Jeff Praissman talks with Scott Bauer, reporting live from the CBOE floor, about why volatility feels too calm- and what could make it snap.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<iframe title=\"Tariff Tightrope: Will Markets Slip?\" allowtransparency=\"true\" height=\"150\" width=\"100%\" style=\"border: none; min-width: min(100%, 430px);height:150px;\" scrolling=\"no\" data-name=\"pb-iframe-player\" src=\"https:\/\/www.podbean.com\/player-v2\/?i=ernzn-1908c39-pb&#038;from=pb6admin&#038;share=1&#038;download=1&#038;rtl=0&#038;fonts=Arial&#038;skin=1b1b1b&#038;font-color=ffffff&#038;logo_link=episode_page&#038;btn-skin=c73a3a\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/iframe>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-summary-ibkr-podcasts-ep-274\">Summary \u2013 IBKR Podcasts Ep. 274<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><em>The following is a summary of a live audio recording and may contain errors in spelling or grammar. Although IBKR has edited for clarity no material changes have been made<\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-jeff-praissman\"><strong>Jeff Praissman<\/strong>\u00a0<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Hi everyone. This is Jeff Praissman with Interactive Brokers, and it&#8217;s my pleasure to welcome back to our podcast Scott Bauer from Prosper Trading. Hey Scott, how are you?\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-scott-bauer\"><strong>Scott Bauer<\/strong>\u00a0<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Great. How are you, Jeff?\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-jeff-praissman-0\"><strong>Jeff Praissman<\/strong>\u00a0<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>I&#8217;m good, I&#8217;m good. Always glad to have you coming in live from the floor of the CBOE. We&#8217;re going to do our five\u2011minute chat on how the market\u2019s doing. Scott, how do you assess the overall market sentiment right now?\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-scott-bauer-0\"><strong>Scott Bauer<\/strong>\u00a0<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>I think it&#8217;s very cautious. And that\u2019s not just talking to the traders here\u2014I think overall, everybody is cautious. Especially with the new inflation data we got yesterday and today; it shows that we\u2019re not really getting closer to that 2%. In fact, there\u2019s definitely some concern out there that tariffs are going to put a lot of pressure on inflation. We\u2019re seeing that reflected in what\u2019s trading in the bond market, with rates moving higher. So I think there is some caution, especially with the markets pretty much near all\u2011time highs.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-jeff-praissman-1\"><strong>Jeff Praissman<\/strong>\u00a0<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Yeah, you mentioned inflation and rates. Are there any other key catalysts coming up in the near term that could move the market, or any other economic data that\u2019s going to be released over the next week?\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-scott-bauer-1\"><strong>Scott Bauer<\/strong>\u00a0<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Sure. We certainly have earnings\u2014earnings are in full force. We kicked off with the banks. They\u2019ve been, I\u2019d say, pretty marginal across the board, not anything really outside of what was expected. But we are going to get a lot of the big names, a lot of the tech names, coming out over the next week or so. That can really set the stage for that August 1st date, where those tariffs are coming in. So I think people are really looking at earnings. They\u2019re also looking to the Fed, which meets at the end of the month, but they\u2019re not looking to see if the Fed\u2019s going to do anything right now. The markets are basically pricing in a 0% chance that they will. But what traders are watching is what the Fed says about this recent inflationary data, and what that means for the potential of a rate cut at the next meeting, which is in September.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-jeff-praissman-2\"><strong>Jeff Praissman<\/strong>\u00a0<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Yeah. And as I mentioned earlier, you\u2019re coming live from the floor of the CBOE, and it looks pretty active behind you today. What have the traders been talking about? I can see everyone is humming, rocking, and rolling.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-scott-bauer-2\"><strong>Scott Bauer<\/strong>\u00a0<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>It really is, and it\u2019s been pretty slow recently. But today it is pretty busy. The traders are saying the same thing\u2014volatility seems to be a little bit low. They\u2019re feeling the same thing, whether you\u2019re measuring it by S&amp;P volatility or the VIX, which is right over here. So they\u2019re a little bit cautious. Everyone I have spoken with\u2014their bias is to the upside right now, but that is while having downside protection, because they do feel like at any time we could get some headline. Whether it\u2019s tariff\u2011related, interest\u2011rate\u2011related, earnings, or another big announcement from NVIDIA or something else, they do feel that at any one time we could get some news that could take the market down three to five percent, even though they\u2019re leaning toward the bullish side.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-jeff-praissman-3\"><strong>Jeff Praissman<\/strong>\u00a0<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Yeah, and that kind of leads me right into my next question. I know you\u2019re coming right from the VIX pit, and it\u2019s been moving along since its high of\u2014I think it hit a little bit over 50 back in April. Are the traders expecting another pop? I\u2019m not saying 50\u2014maybe above 20, like last month\u2014or do they just think it\u2019s going to be a calm summer through August?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-scott-bauer-3\"><strong>Scott Bauer<\/strong>\u00a0\u00a0<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>You know what, it\u2019s hard to fight the tape, as we would say, but the traders do feel like there is going to be a pop. It is too low. When we look at the VIX\u2014that benchmark of VIX at 16 represents a daily move in the S&amp;Ps of about 1%. Recently, over the last week or two, we haven\u2019t seen those big moves we saw over the last several months. I\u2019m looking up here right now\u2014we\u2019re seeing a VIX trading around 17, which is probably fairly priced for how the market is trading right now. But everyone out there, like I was saying about the S&amp;P traders and the VIX traders too, they are long some further\u2011out upside VIX calls just in case.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-jeff-praissman-4\"><strong>Jeff Praissman<\/strong>\u00a0<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Got it, got it. And Scott, any final thoughts you want to leave us with on the market behavior for next week?\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-scott-bauer-4\"><strong>Scott Bauer<\/strong>\u00a0<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>I still think that we\u2019re too consolidated. To me, there\u2019s so much headline risk to the marketplace right now, both to the upside and the downside, that volatility is just too low. So I think if someone has a position or a portfolio and you want to stay long in the market\u2014great. I have no problem with that; I have my own positions also. But to me it\u2019s still a perfect time to buy some of that protection. Buy that cheap insurance, as we\u2019ve talked about before, Jeff. Buy when you can, not when you have to.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-jeff-praissman-5\"><strong>Jeff Praissman<\/strong>\u00a0<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Scott, thank you for stopping by. And for our listeners, you can get more from Scott at ProsperTrading.com. Always a pleasure to have you on the IBKR Podcast Studio Show, and until next time\u2014looking forward to it, Scott.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-scott-bauer-5\"><strong>Scott Bauer<\/strong>\u00a0<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Thanks so much for the opportunity. You too.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-jeff-praissman-6\"><strong>Jeff Praissman<\/strong>\u00a0<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Alright.\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Markets are riding a tariff tightrope as traders weigh rising rates, inflation concerns, and looming trade pressures. Host Jeff Praissman talks with Scott Bauer, reporting live from the CBOE floor, about why volatility feels too calm- and what could make it snap.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":914,"featured_media":227391,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"footnotes":""},"categories":[10842,13857],"tags":[320,2397,18659,17763,850,5273,17708,3598,1383,10995,4574,20356,4135,18379,11121,199,2844,16701,12540],"contributors-categories":[13576,16315],"class_list":{"0":"post-227386","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-ibkr-podcasts","8":"category-podcasts","9":"tag-cboe","10":"tag-earnings-season","11":"tag-inflation-impact","12":"tag-interactive-brokers-podcast","13":"tag-interest-rates","14":"tag-investing-strategies","15":"tag-jeff-praissman","16":"tag-market-outlook","17":"tag-market-sentiment","18":"tag-market-volatility","19":"tag-options-trading","20":"tag-prosper-trading","21":"tag-risk-management","22":"tag-scott-bauer","23":"tag-stock-market-analysis","24":"tag-tariffs","25":"tag-trade-tensions","26":"tag-trading-insights","27":"tag-vix-index","28":"contributors-categories-interactive-brokers","29":"contributors-categories-prosper-trading-academy"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.3) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Tariff Tightrope: Will Markets Slip? | IBKR Podcasts<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Markets are riding a tariff tightrope as traders weigh rising rates, inflation concerns, and looming trade pressures. 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