{"id":227384,"date":"2025-07-16T11:33:15","date_gmt":"2025-07-16T15:33:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=227384"},"modified":"2025-07-16T12:34:06","modified_gmt":"2025-07-16T16:34:06","slug":"trade-of-the-day-expecting-an-upside-beat-in-tomorrows-retail-sales","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/forecast-trader\/trade-of-the-day-expecting-an-upside-beat-in-tomorrows-retail-sales\/","title":{"rendered":"Trade of the Day: Expecting an Upside Beat in Tomorrow\u2019s Retail Sales: July 16, 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Despite a median estimate for tomorrow\u2019s retail sales release for growth of only 0.1% in June, I think a beat is likely, considering that April and May were both negative months and I\u2019m forecasting that consumers recently made up for that weakness. Indeed, my 0.6% expectation is a lot loftier than the consensus. Turning to forecast contract opportunities, I like buying the \u201cYes\u201d answers at the -0.5%, -1% and -1.5% thresholds, priced at $0.80, $0.94 and $0.96 as well as the \u201cNos\u201d at the 1% and 1.5% levels, which are priced at $0.87 and $0.96. This combination trade delivers $5.00 to investors on a number as low as -0.4% or as high as 1%, offering what I consider to be a wide path to victory.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"IBKR<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\"Pricing<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\"Pricing<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Source for Images: ForecastEx<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of July 16, 2025.<\/em> Red circles around the thresholds were inserted by J. Torres to highlight his preferred \u201cYes\u201d and \u201cNo\u201d answers throughout different levels.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders\u2019 Academy video here<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Despite a median estimate for tomorrow\u2019s retail sales release for growth of only 0.1% in June, I think a beat is likely, considering that April and May were both negative months and I\u2019m forecasting that consumers recently made up for that weakness. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":903,"featured_media":224038,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"footnotes":""},"categories":[18929,18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[19111,3051],"contributors-categories":[13760],"class_list":{"0":"post-227384","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-forecast-trader","8":"category-macro","9":"category-north-america","10":"category-region","11":"category-securities","12":"category-text-articles","13":"category-traders-insight","14":"tag-ibkr-forecasttrader-contract","15":"tag-us-retail-sales","16":"contributors-categories-ibkr-macroeconomics"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nTrade of the Day: Expecting an Upside Beat in Tomorrow\u2019s Retail Sales: July 16, 2025<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" 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