{"id":227361,"date":"2025-07-16T09:18:25","date_gmt":"2025-07-16T13:18:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=227361"},"modified":"2025-07-17T03:55:19","modified_gmt":"2025-07-17T07:55:19","slug":"chart-advisor-japan-china-and-the-u-k-in-the-spotlight-world-watch-wednesday","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/chart-advisor-japan-china-and-the-u-k-in-the-spotlight-world-watch-wednesday\/","title":{"rendered":"Chart Advisor: Japan, China, and the U.K. in the Spotlight: World Watch Wednesday"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

By\u00a0Vincent M. Randazzo, CMT<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

1\/ Japan \u2013 Land of the Rising Stocks?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

2\/ China\u2019s Rally Looks Strong\u2014Until You Zoom Out<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

3\/ U.K. \u2013 Mind the (Momentum) Gap<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investopedia is partnering with CMT Association on this newsletter. \u00a0The contents of this newsletter are for informational and educational purposes only, however, and do not constitute investing advice. The guest authors, which may sell research to investors, and may trade or hold positions in securities mentioned herein do not represent the views of CMT Association or Investopedia. Please consult a financial advisor for investment recommendations and services.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

1\/<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Japan \u2013 Land of the Rising Stocks?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

While Japan\u2019s\u00a0Nikkei 225 Index<\/a>\u00a0(NI225<\/a>) has lagged many of the world\u2019s major stock markets year-to-date, it continues to trade just above a key long-term\u00a0breakout<\/a>\u00a0level, keeping alive the bullish thesis of a potential multi-decade trend shift. After finally surpassing its 1989 high near 39,000 early last year, the index has struggled to hold above that significant threshold amid slowing momentum and increased volatility.
<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The 1989 peak carries both psychological and technical importance, having loomed overhead as a constant reminder of a distant bubble peak for more than\u00a0three decades<\/a>. Today, it may be serving as a new floor\u2014yet the market\u2019s difficulty maintaining this level warrants caution.
<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A critical reference on the chart is the 50-month moving average, a long-term trend indicator that has steadily turned higher and acted as support for much of the past decade. However, after the Nikkei surged to nearly 40% above this moving average\u2014its widest gap since the late-1980s asset bubble\u2014the index stalled, entering a phase of choppy trading and sharp declines. One such decline recently tested the 50-month moving average, reaffirming its ongoing role as a dynamic support level. Despite this turbulence, the Nikkei still trades at a notable ~21% premium to its 50-month average, indicating that the longer-term trend remains extended and possibly vulnerable.
<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Adding to the cautious outlook, the monthly\u00a0MACD indicator<\/a>\u00a0suggests the market may have entered a period of down-to-rangebound movement. This signals that further consolidation or sideways price action is likely in the months ahead before any sustained upward momentum can reassert itself. The green rectangles in the price chart below highlight previous multi-month periods of struggle accompanied by similar MACD sell signals.
<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In summary, while the long-term breakout remains intact for now, the path forward for Japan\u2019s market appears uneven. Investors should expect volatility and a possible extended consolidation phase, making patience and risk management critical as the broader secular trend unfolds.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

2\/<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

China\u2019s Rally Looks Strong\u2014Until You Zoom Out<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the surface, China\u2019s\u00a0Hang Seng Index<\/a>\u00a0(HSI<\/a>) appears to be staging a comeback. The benchmark is up more than 20% year-to-date, making it one of the strongest-performing major global indexes so far in 2025. But context is everything, and the bigger picture tells a far less impressive story.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Despite the recent strength, the Hang Seng hasn\u2019t made a new high since February 2018, and the current rebound remains firmly within the boundaries of a long-term downtrend. The rally has brought the index back to the 50%\u00a0Fibonacci retracement<\/a>\u00a0of its decline from that 2018 peak to the late-2022 bottom. This level often acts as\u00a0resistance<\/a>, especially when aligned with a broader bearish structure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Zooming further out, the\u00a0relative strength<\/a>\u00a0of the Hang Seng versus the S&P 500 Index reveals an even more sobering view. The ratio has been in a persistent downtrend since late 2009, highlighting China\u2019s chronic underperformance compared to U.S. equities over the past decade and a half. And while the near-term price action may excite traders, the relative trend remains firmly pointed lower, underscoring the challenge of finding durable leadership in Chinese equities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The technical takeaway: This year\u2019s advance may be more of a\u00a0bear market rally<\/a>\u00a0than a regime change. Until the Hang Seng can reclaim its 2021 highs and break the longer-term pattern of lower highs and lower lows, investors should remain skeptical of the sustainability of the move.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Momentum may carry prices higher in the short run, but the burden of proof is on the bulls. For now, China\u2019s strength is real, but it lives within a bear market framework.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

3\/<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

U.K. \u2013 Mind the (Momentum) Gap<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The U.K.\u2019s FTSE 100 Index (UKX<\/a>), which\u00a0is comprised of the most highly capitalized\u00a0blue-chip stocks<\/a>\u00a0listed on the\u00a0London Stock Exchange<\/a>, is often viewed as a proxy for the U.K. stock market. The index continues its quiet march higher in 2025, recently reaching fresh all-time highs\u2014a notable feat, given its income-heavy profile and historical underperformance compared to global peers. Year-to-date gains remain strong\u2014now outpacing the S&P 500\u2014and the FTSE\u2019s long-term structure continues to follow a reliable pattern of stair-step advances followed by orderly pauses, as depicted in the chart below.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Interestingly, over the past five years, FTSE consolidations have often ended with a successful test of its 150-week\u00a0simple<\/a>\u00a0moving average (SMA), followed by another leg higher. Since breaking above this level in early 2021, the index hasn\u2019t endured even one weekly close below this moving average. With the price now well extended above that moving average, investors should prepare for a possible breather.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Momentum indicators are also worth watching. The\u00a0Relative Strength Index<\/a>\u00a0(RSI) is now approaching the 70 threshold from below. Historically, when the RSI crosses back down after exceeding 70, it has signaled the start of intermediate-term consolidations for the FTSE 100. That setup could be triggered again in the coming weeks if momentum accelerates further and then begins to fade.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From an actual relative strength perspective, the FTSE 100 remains in a long-term downtrend versus the S&P 500 Index, with underperformance dating back decades. While the U.K. benchmark has delivered positive\u00a0absolute<\/a>\u00a0returns\u2014and even some short-term outperformance\u2014it has yet to prove itself as a durable alternative to U.S. equities from a leadership standpoint.

All indices are not created equal. One reason for the FTSE 100\u2019s chronic underperformance versus the S&P 500 lies in its sector composition. The index is heavily tilted toward financials, energy, consumer staples, and health care\u2014defensive and income-oriented sectors that tend to lag in growth-driven bull markets. In contrast, it has minimal exposure to technology, which has powered much of the S&P 500\u2019s outperformance over the past decade. As long as global leadership remains concentrated in innovation and growth, the FTSE\u2019s structural profile is likely to continue weighing on its relative returns.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The bottom line: While the FTSE\u2019s uptrend is technically healthy and supported by long-term moving averages, past behavior and momentum readings suggest that a pause or\u00a0pullback<\/a>\u00a0may be near. In a market that rewards discipline and timing, watching for RSI shifts and pullbacks toward trend support may offer a more favorable entry point than chasing fresh highs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

—<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Originally posted 16th July 2025<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By\u00a0Vincent M. Randazzo, CMT 1\/ Japan \u2013 Land of the Rising Stocks? 2\/ China\u2019s Rally Looks Strong\u2014Until You Zoom Out 3\/ U.K. \u2013 Mind the (Momentum) Gap Investopedia is partnering with CMT Association on this newsletter. \u00a0The contents of this newsletter are for informational and educational purposes only, however, and do not constitute investing advice. […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":186,"featured_media":227362,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[4,5,18,6,8,9,22,23,26,3],"tags":[18235,5364,5214,187,8543,16878],"contributors-categories":[13686],"class_list":{"0":"post-227361","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-asia","8":"category-europe-middle-east-africa","9":"category-macro","10":"category-north-america","11":"category-region","12":"category-securities","13":"category-stocks","14":"category-technical-analysis","15":"category-text-articles","16":"category-traders-insight","17":"tag-fibonacci-retracement","18":"tag-ftse-100","19":"tag-hang-seng-index","20":"tag-macd","21":"tag-nikkei-225-index","22":"tag-relative-strength-index-rsi","23":"contributors-categories-investopedia"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nChart 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