{"id":227318,"date":"2025-07-15T13:47:43","date_gmt":"2025-07-15T17:47:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=227318"},"modified":"2025-07-15T13:47:03","modified_gmt":"2025-07-15T17:47:03","slug":"watching-for-signs","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/ibkr-quant-news\/watching-for-signs\/","title":{"rendered":"Watching for Signs"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

We use math, quant traders, to try to know what\u2019s coming next.\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

It\u2019s not divination but I\u2019m reminded of the bit in the book of Matthew in the bible where Jesus is on the Mount of Olives and the disciples come privately to him saying, \u201cTell us, when will these things be, and what will be the sign of your coming?\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I say that humorously (the Amazon Prime show called The Chosen is pretty brilliant and the character of Matthew is hilarious \u2013 sort of on the spectrum, a rich tax collector, inherently introverted).\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We want to know the signs of a turn in the market.<\/strong> At Market Structure EDGE, the signs we use are Broad Sentiment and Short Volume (Demand and Supply in the S&P 500).\u00a0 Context \u2013 the cadence and calendar of the market.\u00a0 Divergence, or Demand and Supply in stocks, sectors, portfolios, the market, moving in opposite directions. \u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And we trade VOLATILITY. (For more on that, join the live Discussion Thursday Jul 17<\/a>.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The last time volatility was over 1% in the big ETFs tracking the S&P 500 was June 23<\/strong>.\u00a0 It\u2019s averaging 0.6% since then.\u00a0 At EDGE, we coined The 1-2-3 Rule. ETF trackers of the S&P 500 tend to move 1% from highest to lowest intraday price.\u00a0 The underlying stocks move about 2%. Momentum stocks have 3% or more volatility.\u00a0 One, two, three.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The interplay among those driven by Jane Street and Citadel and Susquehanna (as archetypes for high-speed arbitragers setting most prices, driving half the market\u2019s volume) give us a reliable way to consistently take profits.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lack of volatility is the only threat to an arbitrage strategy. Why? Because arbitrage is about buying and selling at different prices (it\u2019s the basis of the Jane Street matter in India \u2013 where Jane Street just put up $587 million to satisfy regulators there, so it can return to trading. I wrote about it<\/a> last week).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If prices all move the same way, you can\u2019t find the arbitrage return.\u00a0 And then arbitragers quit and the market suddenly shakes.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The same thing happened in February this year.<\/strong>\u00a0 After a spate of volatility in December, the arbitrage spreads in the market were consumed by Fast Traders. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Now, just because something occurred in the past doesn\u2019t mean it\u2019ll repeat. But the mechanics of the market have not changed. The participants have not changed. The motivation and principal purpose of the market \u2013 the pursuit of arbitrage spreads \u2013 has not changed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

By the way, none of this is a reflection of economic, geopolitical or other factors.\u00a0 It\u2019s about mechanics. Market structure.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Yesterday (Jul 14), ETF S&P 500 tracker volatility was 0.5%. Half the volatility is 0.25%. If the market is inflecting \u2013 hitting a top or bottom \u2013 I often will go long or short any total move of intraday volatility.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Let\u2019s sum up:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Broad Sentiment, the EDGE measure of overall Demand and Supply,<\/strong> is 6.8 and ticking down \u2013 falling slow not fast \u2013 and Supply is leaking higher.  That\u2019s a product of the absence of volatility.  Slow moves.  And since June 23, S&P 500 stocks have closed above the average intraday price a staggering 75% of the time.  Well, how can buying outstrip selling 3-to-1 sustainably?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Options expire<\/strong> July 16-18.  Earnings are accelerating.  That\u2019s context.  It can alter outcomes.  Stocks TEND to inflect at expirations. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Finally, there\u2019s Divergence<\/strong>, with eight stocks in the EDGE Momentum Daily Trading Ideas portfolio.  And there are 131 stocks with $100 billion or more of market cap. In January it was 115. The big keep getting bigger. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Over-reliance on the few is awesome on the way up \u2013 it propels everything higher.\u00a0 And it\u2019s terrible on the way down.\u00a0 I\u2019m not saying that\u2019s coming.\u00a0 I\u2019m saying it\u2019s possible.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

PS \u2013 Join us Thursday Jul 17<\/a> for the live Discussion and we\u2019ll see what\u2019s unfolding.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

We want to know the signs of a turn in the market.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1157,"featured_media":208244,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[339,338,341,9563],"tags":[1006],"contributors-categories":[15343],"class_list":{"0":"post-227318","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-data-science","8":"category-ibkr-quant-news","9":"category-quant-development","10":"category-options-quant","11":"tag-fintech","12":"contributors-categories-market-structure-edge"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nWatching for Signs | IBKR Quant<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"We want to know the signs of a turn in the market.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, 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