{"id":227244,"date":"2025-07-14T12:23:16","date_gmt":"2025-07-14T16:23:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=227244"},"modified":"2025-07-14T12:52:35","modified_gmt":"2025-07-14T16:52:35","slug":"trade-of-the-day-tomorrows-core-cpi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/forecast-trader\/trade-of-the-day-tomorrows-core-cpi\/","title":{"rendered":"Trade of the Day: Tomorrow\u2019s Core CPI &gt;2.8%: July 14, 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>This Tuesday&#8217;s June Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to reflect annualized advances of 2.7% and 3% across the overall and core segments. Both versions have subdued deviation rates, meaning that they tend to arrive near economist projections. Meanwhile the \u201cYes\u201d answer at the 2.8% threshold for the core CPI appears undervalued to me at just $0.72. The odds of a 0.2% downside miss are quite low at this juncture and that\u2019s what\u2019s required for \u201cTeam Yes\u201d to lose. The probability of a 2.8% figure is closer to 5% based on my forecast of 3%. Moreover, following three consecutive months of 2.8% readings, goods cost pressures are anticipated to drive yearly numbers north in tomorrow morning\u2019s print and that\u2019s another justification for a \u201cYes\u201d trade here. Furthermore, I also like the risk-reward profile of the 2.7% level at $0.95.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"950\" height=\"110\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/07\/Picture1-FT-July-14.png\" alt=\"IBKR ForecastTrader Contract regarding US Core CPI for June\" class=\"wp-image-227246 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/07\/Picture1-FT-July-14.png 950w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/07\/Picture1-FT-July-14-700x81.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/07\/Picture1-FT-July-14-300x35.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/07\/Picture1-FT-July-14-768x89.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 950px) 100vw, 950px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 950px; aspect-ratio: 950\/110;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"716\" height=\"589\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/07\/Picture2-FT-July-14.png\" alt=\"Pricing of IBKR ForecastTrader Contract regarding US Core CPI for June\" class=\"wp-image-227247 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/07\/Picture2-FT-July-14.png 716w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/07\/Picture2-FT-July-14-700x576.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/07\/Picture2-FT-July-14-300x247.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 716px) 100vw, 716px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 716px; aspect-ratio: 716\/589;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-short-strangle-kind-of-cpi-forecast-trade\"><strong>Short Strangle Kind of CPI Forecast Trade<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Turning to the headline figure, it is expected to be 2.7%. The 2.4% and 2.8% thresholds look attractive for a short strangle kind of trade, considering you would need a 0.3% downside miss or a 0.2% northward beat for the corresponding \u201cYes\u201d and \u201cNo\u201d answers to lose at the lower and upper thresholds. Indeed, I like the risk-reward profiles of the \u201cYes\u201d at 2.4% and \u201cNo\u201d at 2.8%, which cost $0.93 and $0.96 each for a total of $1.89. The combination delivers $2.00 back on a number as low as 2.5% or as high as 2.8% and the max loss of the trade is $0.89.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"124\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/07\/Picture-3-FT-July-14-1100x124.png\" alt=\"IBKR ForecastTrader Contract asking if headline CPI will exceed 2.8% for June\" class=\"wp-image-227248 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/07\/Picture-3-FT-July-14-1100x124.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/07\/Picture-3-FT-July-14-700x79.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/07\/Picture-3-FT-July-14-300x34.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/07\/Picture-3-FT-July-14-768x87.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/07\/Picture-3-FT-July-14.png 1195w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/124;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"962\" height=\"101\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/07\/Picture8-1.png\" alt=\"IBKR ForecastTrader Contract asking if headline CPI will exceed 2.8% for June\" class=\"wp-image-227249 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/07\/Picture8-1.png 962w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/07\/Picture8-1-700x73.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/07\/Picture8-1-300x31.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/07\/Picture8-1-768x81.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 962px) 100vw, 962px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 962px; aspect-ratio: 962\/101;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Source for Images: ForecastEx<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of July 14, 2025.<\/em> <em>Red circle around the thresholds was inserted by J. Torres to highlight his preferred \u201cYes\u201d answers throughout different levels.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders\u2019 Academy video&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=ceR-weGZSXc\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">here<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>This Tuesday&#8217;s June Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to reflect annualized advances of 2.7% and 3% across the overall and core segments.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":903,"featured_media":218634,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"footnotes":""},"categories":[18929,18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[2180],"contributors-categories":[13760],"class_list":{"0":"post-227244","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-forecast-trader","8":"category-macro","9":"category-north-america","10":"category-region","11":"category-securities","12":"category-text-articles","13":"category-traders-insight","14":"tag-consumer-price-index","15":"contributors-categories-ibkr-macroeconomics"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.3) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Trade of the 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