{"id":227188,"date":"2025-07-11T13:00:00","date_gmt":"2025-07-11T17:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=227188"},"modified":"2025-07-14T16:31:05","modified_gmt":"2025-07-14T20:31:05","slug":"the-lloyd-christmas-approach-is-not-dumb-and-dumber","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/the-lloyd-christmas-approach-is-not-dumb-and-dumber\/","title":{"rendered":"The Lloyd Christmas Approach is not Dumb and Dumber"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

It is relatively easy to hypothesize but much more difficult to test theories in the real world in a timely manner.  Today we have an opportunity to test a couple of recent assertions about market behavior: (1) traders are so eager to seek buying opportunities that broad market dips are getting ever shorter and shallower, and (2) tariff news can be largely ignored if there is even the slightest bit of wiggle room about their implementation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Last night at Yankee Stadium, while watching the home team struggle for its first hit, my friend and I got notifications that the Trump administration was planning to raise tariffs on Canadian goods to 35%<\/a>.  Our next move was to check on overnight futures, and upon seeing they were more than -1\/2% lower, we joked, \u201cHow long until they\u2019re positive?\u201d  Unlike the Yankees, who rewarded the faithful with a stellar comeback, the S&P 500 (SPX) has yet to venture back into the green as I type this before noon EDT.  But as is now typical, the index bounced off its lows shortly after the opening when no early follow-through materialized and seems to be trying to claw its way back into plus territory.  We\u2019ll need the afternoon session to see if that comeback can occur.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

ES September Futures, 2-Days, 2-Minute Candles, Including Overnight Sessions<\/em><\/strong> <\/h3>\n\n\n\n
\"ES<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Source: Interactive Brokers<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

As for the market\u2019s blas\u00e9 attitude toward tariff threats, it is increasingly clear that traders view them as just that \u2013 threats, not actions.  The common shorthand for this mentality is the \u201cTACO trade\u201d, with the acronym standing for \u201cTrump Always Chickens Out\u201d, but I have never been a fan of that explanation.  It\u2019s understandable, since the President did back off the initial \u201cLiberation Day\u201d figures after the market freaked out, but it is not as though they can be disregarded completely.  Tariff levels are already higher than before April, and it seems hard to believe that all the new demands will be either postponed or renegotiated before August 1st<\/sup>.  But since most of the prior deadlines have been extended, it is quite logical for traders who\u2019ve been profiting handsomely from their general disregard of tariffs to continue to do so.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I prefer to think of traders\u2019 approach to tariffs as the \u201cLloyd Christmas\u201d approach<\/a> instead of the \u201cTACO\u201d construct.  In a famous scene from the movie \u201cDumb and Dumber\u201d, Lloyd, as played by Jim Carrey, is told that his chances of success with a potential love interest is only one in a million.  His classic reaction is, \u201cso you\u2019re telling me there\u2019s a chance\u2026 YEAH!\u201d  No matter how remote the probability for a full tariff reprieve might be, as long as traders can visualize a remote possibility, then they will continue to remain bullish. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

For now, I\u2019ll say that the real-world test of our recent hypotheses is incomplete.  We might know by 4pm EDT today, or then again, we might be proven wrong.  But until then, I\u2019d say we have a chance.  Yeah!<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

It is relatively easy to hypothesize but much more difficult to test theories in the real world in a timely manner.\u00a0 Today we have an opportunity to test a couple of recent assertions about market behavior: (1) traders are so eager to seek buying opportunities that broad market dips are getting ever shorter and shallower, and (2) tariff news can be largely ignored if there is even the slightest bit of wiggle room about their implementation.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":222699,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[14700,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[20328,20325,20326,20327,20324],"contributors-categories":[13576],"class_list":{"0":"post-227188","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-ibkr-market-insights","8":"category-north-america","9":"category-region","10":"category-securities","11":"category-text-articles","12":"category-traders-insight","13":"tag-behavioralfinance","14":"tag-contrarianthinking","15":"tag-investorpsychology","16":"tag-marketstrategy","17":"tag-riskmanagement","18":"contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nThe Lloyd Christmas Approach is not Dumb and 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Prior to joining Interactive Brokers, Sosnick held senior trading roles at Morgan Stanley, Lehman Brothers, and Salomon Brothers, where he completed the firm\u2019s famed training program.","sameAs":["https:\/\/ibkr.com"],"url":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/author\/steve-sosnick\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/uncertain-questions-featured-img.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/227188","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=227188"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/227188\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/222699"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=227188"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=227188"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=227188"},{"taxonomy":"contributors-categories","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/contributors-categories?post=227188"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}