{"id":227057,"date":"2025-07-09T11:44:10","date_gmt":"2025-07-09T15:44:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=227057"},"modified":"2025-07-09T13:14:01","modified_gmt":"2025-07-09T17:14:01","slug":"forecast-contracts-7-chance-of-a-quarter-point-fed-cut-on-july-30","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/forecast-trader\/forecast-contracts-7-chance-of-a-quarter-point-fed-cut-on-july-30\/","title":{"rendered":"Forecast Contracts: 7% Chance of a Quarter-Point Fed Cut on July 30: July 9, 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

There\u2019s a slim 7% probability that the Federal Reserve will reduce its benchmark by 25 basis points (bps) at the end of this month, but there\u2019s a 0% chance in my opinion of the central bank trimming by more than the traditional quarter. While the current level is at a midpoint of 4.375%, the \u201cYes\u201d answers to the forecast contract questions asking if the rate will exceed 3.875%, 3.625% and 3.375% are undervalued from my perspective. The three thresholds are priced at $0.94, $0.96 and $0.96 and would require a step down of 50 bps, 75 bps and 100 bps for \u201cTeam Yes\u201d to lose across the distinct figures. Again, cuts of those magnitudes are not in the cards for the upcoming meeting. Moreover, folks that initiate a trade will receive approximately three weeks of interest-like incentive coupons that annualize at 3.83% and shift in proportion to the changing values of the purchased instruments. Finally, upon looking at different markets, there are arbitrage opportunities available, considering that Fed Funds Futures are pricing in 9% odds of a reduction on July 30.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"IBKR<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\"Pricing<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Bank of Canada to Hold or Cut<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A Bank of Canada decision on the same day is highly expected to feature a hold or a cut from the organization\u2019s current benchmark of 2.75%. A hike is unlikely, folks, because inflation has been cooperating and the pace of economic growth and hiring have concerned the monetary policy authority. For this reason, the \u201cNo\u201d answer at the 2.75% threshold priced at $0.96 is undervalued in my opinion and should be closer to $0.99.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"IBKR<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Source for Images: ForecastEx<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of July 9, 2025. Interest-like incentive coupons change proportionally alongside shifts in the fed funds rate.<\/em> Red circle around the thresholds was inserted by J. Torres to highlight his preferred \u201cYes\u201d answers throughout different levels.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders\u2019 Academy video here<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

There\u2019s a slim 7% probability that the Federal Reserve will reduce its benchmark by 25 basis points (bps) at the end of this month, but there\u2019s a 0% chance in my opinion of the central bank trimming by more than the traditional quarter. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":903,"featured_media":186448,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"footnotes":""},"categories":[18929,18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[1504],"contributors-categories":[13760],"class_list":{"0":"post-227057","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-forecast-trader","8":"category-macro","9":"category-north-america","10":"category-region","11":"category-securities","12":"category-text-articles","13":"category-traders-insight","14":"tag-monetary-policy","15":"contributors-categories-ibkr-macroeconomics"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nForecast Contracts: 7% Chance of a Quarter-Point Fed Cut on July 30: July 9, 2025<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"There\u2019s a slim 7% probability that the Federal 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His skillset includes the ability to communicate and analyze complex economic topics in English and in Spanish and throughout his career, he has been interviewed by media outlets including Bloomberg, CNBC, CNN, WSJ, AP, Yahoo Finance, Cheddar, Business Insider, Seeking Alpha, PBS, FOX, Economic Times, Univision, Telemundo and others.","url":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/author\/jose-torres\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/03\/fed-eagle-flag-1000x563-featured-img.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/227057","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/903"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=227057"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/227057\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/186448"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=227057"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=227057"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=227057"},{"taxonomy":"contributors-categories","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/contributors-categories?post=227057"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}