{"id":226994,"date":"2025-07-08T12:57:05","date_gmt":"2025-07-08T16:57:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=226994"},"modified":"2025-07-09T03:41:04","modified_gmt":"2025-07-09T07:41:04","slug":"traders-continue-to-call-a-bluff-on-tariffs","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/traders-continue-to-call-a-bluff-on-tariffs\/","title":{"rendered":"Traders Continue to Call a Bluff on Tariffs"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

The Truth Social post seems quite straightforward — the August 1st<\/sup> date for tariff implementation is a firm deadline — but stocks barely budged after the President posted that at 10:45 EDT.   The blas\u00e9 attitude once again stems from traders\u2019 perception that tariff discussions remain flexible.  Considering that just last night the President told reporters that the current deadline is “firm but not 100% firm<\/a>,” can you blame them?  Heck, a lot of money has been made by traders betting on tariff malleability \u2013 why should they reverse course now?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Donald<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Source: <\/em>Truth Social<\/em><\/a><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Yesterday, as the market was bouncing off its lows, I was asked whether investors still care about tariffs.  I responded<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As long as the market can plausibly assert that there is room for negotiation or extension, then it won’t freak out (cue theme song <\/em>‘Won’t Get Fooled Again’<\/em><\/a>)”<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

When asked how investors can continue to ignore tariff headwinds, I offered:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Because they were burnt when they reacted to the first batch [of tariffs] and saw how firmly the market responded to the reprieve.  Thus the takeaway was don\u2019t react (or react at all?) to bad news because they\u2019ll just become buying opportunities anyway. <\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Thanks to the relentless dip buying, the \u201chalf-life\u201d of dips has been drastically shrinking.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

With some hindsight, the last line seems the most significant here.  There is an increasing attitude, if not a near-certainty, that every dip will soon become a buying opportunity.  And if taken to its logical conclusion, if every dip will indeed be recouped shortly, then why sell at all?  That seems to be the attitude around tariffs, and increasingly for a wide range of stocks as well.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

 We wrote yesterday about how \u201cTesla Vigilantes<\/a>\u201d, investors who are unhappy with Elon Musk\u2019s forays into politics, were the likely culprits responsible for pushing the stock down by about -7%.  Today we see the stock recovering about 1\/3 of yesterday\u2019s drop, and importantly, spending most of today\u2019s session above yesterday\u2019s highs.  Those who bought the dip and held overnight are generally doing well today.  Buy-the-dip worked again for many.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Can this work forever, for every stock, all the time?  Of course not.  But since it is working for many traders in a wide range of stocks quite often, it\u2019s understandable why this is becoming an increasingly popular mindset.  And when it comes to tariffs, it\u2019s worked best to ignore the day-to-day noise.  Will that work endlessly?  Seemingly not.  But as long as there is a reasonable probability for tariffs to be delayed, renegotiated, or otherwise not implemented, then traders are happy to \u201ctake the over\u201d since it\u2019s worked quite well to do that for weeks.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The August 1st date for tariff implementation is a firm deadline — but stocks barely budged after the President posted that at 10:45 EDT.\u00a0\u00a0 The blas\u00e9 attitude once again stems from traders\u2019 perception that tariff discussions remain flexible.\u00a0 Considering that just last night the President told reporters that the current deadline is “firm but not 100% firm,” can you blame them?\u00a0 Heck, a lot of money has been made by traders betting on tariff malleability \u2013 why should they reverse course now?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":222672,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[14700,18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[3121,7590,18713,199,20296],"contributors-categories":[13576],"class_list":["post-226994","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-ibkr-market-insights","category-macro","category-north-america","category-region","category-securities","category-text-articles","category-traders-insight","tag-buy-the-dip","tag-investor-sentiment","tag-market-psychology","tag-tariffs","tag-tesla-rebound","contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nTraders Continue to Call a Bluff on Tariffs<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The August 1st 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