{"id":226971,"date":"2025-07-08T11:56:28","date_gmt":"2025-07-08T15:56:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=226971"},"modified":"2025-07-08T15:34:26","modified_gmt":"2025-07-08T19:34:26","slug":"undervalued-second-quarter-us-gdp-forecast-contracts","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/forecast-trader\/undervalued-second-quarter-us-gdp-forecast-contracts\/","title":{"rendered":"Undervalued Second-Quarter US GDP Forecast Contracts: July 8, 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>The US economy is expected to flip back to robust growth in the second quarter as import headwinds from the beginning of the year reverse into tailwinds. Granted, consumer spending has been weak so far this year, but household shopping from April and May aren\u2019t enough to counter the positive force of a much narrower trade deficit. Additionally, corporate capital expenditure momentum is poised to offset the adverse impact of struggling residential investment while government outlay limitations are not going to weigh as much as feared six months ago. Moreover, the Atlanta Fed\u2019s GDP Now estimate stands at 2.6% for second quarter GDP growth while I\u2019m projecting an advancement of 3.1%. The anticipated recovery will allow the nation to avoid a technical recession, defined as two consecutive quarters of declining GDP. Furthermore, the <a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/?loginType=1&amp;forwardTo=100&amp;clt=0&amp;ip2loc=OFF&amp;locale=en_US#\/market-details?id=726203920%7C20250925%7C0&amp;detail=contract_details\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u201cNo\u201d<\/a> answer to the recession forecast contract for the corresponding period is undervalued, in my view, at just $0.90 and should be much closer to $0.99, since the path to a negative number here is almost impossible. Similarly, the <a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/?loginType=1&amp;forwardTo=100&amp;clt=0&amp;ip2loc=OFF&amp;locale=en_US#\/market-details?id=712856689%7C20250925%7C0\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u201cYes\u201d<\/a> answer associated with whether growth will exceed 0% is also attractive at $0.93 and should also be approaching a $0.99 price from my perspective.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1050\" height=\"763\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/07\/Picture1-July-8-FT.png\" alt=\"A surge in imports drove negative GDP during the first quarter of 2025\" class=\"wp-image-226973 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/07\/Picture1-July-8-FT.png 1050w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/07\/Picture1-July-8-FT-700x509.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/07\/Picture1-July-8-FT-300x218.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/07\/Picture1-July-8-FT-768x558.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1050px) 100vw, 1050px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1050px; aspect-ratio: 1050\/763;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"133\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/07\/Picture2-July-8-FT-1100x133.png\" alt=\"IBKR ForecastTrader Contract asking if the US will enter a technical recession by end of 2Q 2025\" class=\"wp-image-226974 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/07\/Picture2-July-8-FT-1100x133.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/07\/Picture2-July-8-FT-700x85.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/07\/Picture2-July-8-FT-300x36.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/07\/Picture2-July-8-FT-768x93.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/07\/Picture2-July-8-FT-1536x186.png 1536w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/07\/Picture2-July-8-FT-2048x248.png 2048w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/133;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"894\" height=\"97\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/07\/Picture3-July-8-FT.png\" alt=\"IBKR ForecastTrader Contract asking if the US GDP growth will exceed 0% in 2Q 2025\" class=\"wp-image-226975 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/07\/Picture3-July-8-FT.png 894w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/07\/Picture3-July-8-FT-700x76.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/07\/Picture3-July-8-FT-300x33.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/07\/Picture3-July-8-FT-768x83.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 894px) 100vw, 894px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 894px; aspect-ratio: 894\/97;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-cash-flow-component-also-attractive\"><strong>Cash Flow Component Also Attractive<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Because these contracts expire in 78 days, they provide an attractive cash flow opportunity. Indeed, investors who open a position will benefit from almost three months of interest-like incentive coupons that annualize at 3.83% and shift in proportion to the changing values of the purchased forecast contracts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Source for Images: ForecastEx<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of July 8, 2025. Interest-like incentive coupons change proportionally alongside shifts in the fed funds rate.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders\u2019 Academy video&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=ceR-weGZSXc\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">here<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The US economy is expected to flip back to robust growth in the second quarter as import headwinds from the beginning of the year reverse into tailwinds.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":903,"featured_media":189492,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"footnotes":""},"categories":[18929,18,9,26,3],"tags":[527,19111],"contributors-categories":[13760],"class_list":{"0":"post-226971","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-forecast-trader","8":"category-macro","9":"category-securities","10":"category-text-articles","11":"category-traders-insight","12":"tag-gdp","13":"tag-ibkr-forecasttrader-contract","14":"contributors-categories-ibkr-macroeconomics"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.5) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Undervalued Second-Quarter US GDP Forecast 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His skillset includes the ability to communicate and analyze complex economic topics in English and in Spanish and throughout his career, he has been interviewed by media outlets including Bloomberg, CNBC, CNN, WSJ, AP, Yahoo Finance, Cheddar, Business Insider, Seeking Alpha, PBS, FOX, Economic Times, Univision, Telemundo and others.\",\n\t            \"url\": \"https:\\\/\\\/www.interactivebrokers.com\\\/campus\\\/author\\\/jose-torres\\\/\"\n\t        }\n\t    ]\n\t}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO Premium plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Undervalued Second-Quarter US GDP Forecast Contracts: July 8, 2025","description":"The US economy is expected to flip back to robust growth in the second quarter as import headwinds from the beginning of the year reverse into 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