{"id":226915,"date":"2025-07-08T09:11:50","date_gmt":"2025-07-08T13:11:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=226915"},"modified":"2025-07-09T03:40:20","modified_gmt":"2025-07-09T07:40:20","slug":"chart-advisor-u-s-equity-markets-from-an-elliott-wave-perspective","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/chart-advisor-u-s-equity-markets-from-an-elliott-wave-perspective\/","title":{"rendered":"Chart Advisor: U.S. Equity Markets from an Elliott Wave Perspective"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

By Jeffrey W. Huge<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

1\/ The Bullish Preferred Count<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

2\/ The Bearish Alternate Counts<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

3\/ Short-Term Pattern Considerations<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

4\/ Long-Term Pattern Implications<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investopedia is partnering with CMT Association on this newsletter.  The contents of this newsletter are for informational and educational purposes only, however, and do not constitute investing advice. The guest authors, which may sell research to investors, and may trade or hold positions in securities mentioned herein do not represent the views of CMT Association or Investopedia. Please consult a financial advisor for investment recommendations and services.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

1\/<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Bullish Preferred Count<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Our preferred Elliott Wave count presumes that the S&P 500 has only completed intermediate wave 3<\/em>, of primary wave (5)<\/em>, of cycle wave V <\/em>up. The most bullish interpretation is that intermediate wave 4 <\/em>down bottomed on April 7th at SPX 4835. If correct, then intermediate wave 5 <\/em>up is now in progress and has the potential to carry price into the SPX 6800-7500 range depending upon whether intermediate wave 5<\/em> traces out an impulse wave or and \u201cending diagonal\u201d triangle.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

2\/<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Bearish Alternate Counts<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Our two top alternate Elliott Wave counts presume that the advance off the April 7th low of SPX 4835 is a countertrend move labeled as minor wave (b) <\/em>up. If correct, then minor wave (b) <\/em>could carry modestly higher into the SPX 6300 range, before minor wave (c)<\/em> down ensues. Alternate I: <\/strong> A \u201csymmetrical triangle\u201d pattern. Under this rubric, minor waves (c), (d), and (e)<\/em> would trace out a lateral corrective wave form making a series of higher lows and lower highs until the coil is complete. It will be followed by a thrust above the upper boundary of the pattern into intermediate wave 5 up<\/em>. Some would say that this is a neutral scenario where the market simply corrects in time rather than by price.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Alternate II:<\/strong> An \u201cexpanded flat\u201d pattern. Under this rubric, minor wave (c)<\/em> down would take the form of an impulse pattern. The decline would be aggressive and forceful \u2014 as if it were the third wave within an impulse pattern. The decline would then carry to new bear market lows surpassing the minor wave (a)<\/em> low at SPX 4835. If this alternate proves correct, then minor wave (c)<\/em> could be up to 1.618x the distance of minor wave (a) <\/em>down \u2014 or about 2,122 handles. If today\u2019s price action in the S&P 500 is indicating that minor wave (b) <\/em>up has terminated, then a downside target of SPX 4150 would be reasonable. This is the second most bearish interpretation of the market\u2019s price action. The most bearish interpretation would be that intermediate wave 5,<\/em> of primary wave (5),<\/em> of cycle wave V<\/em> up has terminated. We\u2019re not there yet in our analysis. But a sustained monthly close below the 200-week MA would get us there.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

3\/<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Short-Term Pattern Considerations<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

One reason not to dismiss the bearish alternate count is because the S&P 500 has been tracing out what appears to us to be an ending diagonal triangle of the \u201cexpanding\u201d variety. If correct, this is a terminal pattern. Old school chartists might describe it as \u201cthree drives to a top<\/a>.\u201d This second alternate count actually aligns best with our preferred count for the S&P 500 Equal-Weight index, which so far has failed to post a new high, and appears poised to terminate intermediate wave B<\/em> up. If this count is correct, then wave C<\/em> will follow with an aggressive decline.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

4\/<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Long-Term Pattern Implications<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Regardless of which, if any of these intermediate degree wave counts is correct, we must not lose sight of the bigger picture. There is a very high probability that our cycle wave V<\/em> count is accurate. If so, then supercycle wave (III)<\/em> is coming to its conclusion. When it terminates, whether now or six months from now, it won\u2019t matter whether you caught that last 5%, 10%, or even 20% of the bull market\u2019s upside potential. That\u2019s because when supercycle wave (IV) down begins, the selling will be so swift and merciless you won\u2019t know have time to react.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

If you can\u2019t bring yourself to take evasive action when the market is trading at SPX 6280, you won\u2019t be able to pull the plug at SPX 6800 either. Why not? Because it\u2019s human nature. You\u2019ll want more. That SPX 7500 target is still out there, and you think that you\u2019ll be able to outsmart the market and get out at the top. But you won\u2019t. Remember what Nathan Rothschild said, \u201cFortunes are made by buying low and selling too soon.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

—<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Originally posted 8th July 2025<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By Jeffrey W. Huge 1\/ The Bullish Preferred Count 2\/ The Bearish Alternate Counts 3\/ Short-Term Pattern Considerations 4\/ Long-Term Pattern Implications Investopedia is partnering with CMT Association on this newsletter.  The contents of this newsletter are for informational and educational purposes only, however, and do not constitute investing advice. 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