{"id":226863,"date":"2025-07-07T11:20:56","date_gmt":"2025-07-07T15:20:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=226863"},"modified":"2025-07-07T12:33:27","modified_gmt":"2025-07-07T16:33:27","slug":"forecast-contracts-offer-mayoral-odds-for-nycs-mamdani-adams-cuomo","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/prediction-market\/forecast-contracts-offer-mayoral-odds-for-nycs-mamdani-adams-cuomo\/","title":{"rendered":"Forecast Contracts Offer Mayoral Odds for NYC&#8217;s Mamdani, Adams, Cuomo: July 7, 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>The November mayoral election is a hot topic among IBKR ForecastTraders with more than 1 million contracts tied to the New York City race being traded. The predictive marketplace points to a 68% chance of democratic socialist Zohran Mamdani, who secured the Democratic Party&#8217;s primary nomination recently, earning the keys to Gracie Mansion. Meanwhile, incumbent Mayor Eric Adams is the only other politician meaningfully on the board at the moment, despite running at a distant second, sporting a likelihood of 30%. But there\u2019s plenty of weeks left, as votes are due on November 4. In light of a longer time horizon, investors who initiate a position will benefit from approximately four months of interest-like incentive coupons that annualize at 3.83% and shift in proportion to the changing values of the purchased forecast contracts. Finally, outside of Mamdani and Adams, there\u2019s no alternative candidate on the screen with at least a 4% probability of winning, considering former governor Andrew Cuomo is in third place and carries odds of 3%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"112\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/07\/Picture1-4-1100x112.png\" alt=\"IBKR ForecastTrader Contract asking if Zohran Mamdani will win the NY city mayor's position\" class=\"wp-image-226865 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/07\/Picture1-4-1100x112.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/07\/Picture1-4-700x71.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/07\/Picture1-4-300x31.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/07\/Picture1-4-768x78.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/07\/Picture1-4.png 1254w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/112;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"566\" height=\"490\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/07\/Picture2-3.png\" alt=\"Pricing of IBKR ForecastTrader contracts addressing New York City mayor race.\" class=\"wp-image-226866 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/07\/Picture2-3.png 566w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/07\/Picture2-3-300x260.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 566px) 100vw, 566px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 566px; aspect-ratio: 566\/490;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Source for Images: ForecastEx<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of July 7, 2025. Interest-like incentive coupons change proportionally alongside shifts in the fed funds rate.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders\u2019 Academy video&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=ceR-weGZSXc\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">here<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The November mayoral election is a hot topic among IBKR ForecastTraders with more than 1 million contracts tied to the New York City race being traded. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":903,"featured_media":226876,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[18929,18,9,26,3],"tags":[],"contributors-categories":[13760],"class_list":{"0":"post-226863","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-prediction-market","8":"category-macro","9":"category-securities","10":"category-text-articles","11":"category-traders-insight","12":"contributors-categories-ibkr-macroeconomics"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.8) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Forecast Contracts Offer Mayoral Odds for NYC&#8217;s Mamdani, Adams, 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His skillset includes the ability to communicate and analyze complex economic topics in English and in Spanish and throughout his career, he has been interviewed by media outlets including Bloomberg, CNBC, CNN, WSJ, AP, Yahoo Finance, Cheddar, Business Insider, Seeking Alpha, PBS, FOX, Economic Times, Univision, Telemundo and others.","url":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/author\/jose-torres\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/07\/ny-city-hall-featured-img.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/226863","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/903"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=226863"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/226863\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/226876"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=226863"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=226863"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=226863"},{"taxonomy":"contributors-categories","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/contributors-categories?post=226863"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}