{"id":226724,"date":"2025-07-02T12:45:00","date_gmt":"2025-07-02T16:45:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=226724"},"modified":"2025-07-03T03:38:00","modified_gmt":"2025-07-03T07:38:00","slug":"seemingly-unconcerned-ahead-of-jobs","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/seemingly-unconcerned-ahead-of-jobs\/","title":{"rendered":"Seemingly Unconcerned Ahead of Jobs"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

This trading week in the US is short but potentially consequential.  This year, Independence Day (July 4th<\/sup>) falls on a Friday, and furthermore, US stock exchanges close at 1PM EDT tomorrow<\/a> ahead of the three-day weekend.  But there are some consequential numbers to be digested before those of us who are not already on vacation scoot away for the holiday.  The June Employment report arrives tomorrow at 8:30 EDT.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although the market climate clearly is rather sanguine right now, some investors are at least feigning concern about the condition of the labor economy.  Remember, maximum sustainable employment \u2013 along with price stability \u2013 is half of the Federal Reserve\u2019s dual mandate<\/a>.  The Unemployment Rate has been gently rising over the past several months (as shown by the first chart below), but it remains nearer to historic lows than highs (as shown by the second chart):<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rate, 5-Years, Monthly Data<\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n
\"Seasonally<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Source: <\/em>Unemployment Rate (UNRATE) | FRED | St. Louis Fed<\/em><\/a><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rate, Monthly Data Since January 1948<\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n
\"Seasonally<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Source: <\/em>Unemployment Rate (UNRATE) | FRED | St. Louis Fed<\/em><\/a><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The combination of modestly higher unemployment yet at a historically low level must offer some difficulty for the FOMC.  When must they consider that we have moved far enough away from their goal before they need to adjust monetary policy?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Over the past two days, we have received somewhat conflicting reports about labor.  Yesterday, we learned that JOLTS job openings unexpectedly rose to 7.769 million, well ahead of the 7.3 million consensus estimate and last month\u2019s revised 7.395 million.  A longer term chart shows that the decline from the post-Covid peak in openings seems to have taken a modest pause, albeit above levels that prevailed prior to the pandemic:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

JOLTS Jobs Openings, Monthly Data Since December 2000<\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n
\"JOLTS<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Source: <\/em>Job Openings: Total Nonfarm (JTSJOL) | FRED | St. Louis Fed<\/em><\/a><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

This morning, however, the ADP Employment Change for June was a bit of a shock.  It showed a decline of -33,000, far below the 98k gain that was expected and last month\u2019s adjusted +29k.  We saw futures dip briefly, though stocks recovered after a combination of Tesla\u2019s (TSLA) worse-than-expected sales report (no, that is not typo \u2013 the stock rallied +4%) and reports of a trade deal with Vietnam.  A big decline on ADP was never really in the cards anyway \u2013 the market understands that it is at best an imperfect harbinger of the Nonfarm Payrolls data \u2013 though that was the first monthly decline since March 2023\u2019s -53k reading.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In theory, we might expect some market concern ahead of a number that could have a major influence on monetary policy.  In practice, not really. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Consensus expectations are for an Unemployment Rate of 4.3%, up from last month\u2019s 4.2%.  That jibes with the readings on IBKR ForecastTrader<\/a>, which show a 69% YES for a rate above 4.2% and a 79% NO for a rate above 4.3%.  Nonfarm Payrolls are expected to increase by 110k, with 58% saying YES<\/a> to a reading above 108,700 on ForecastTrader.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Perhaps the solid consensus is what is leading options expiring tomorrow on the S&P 500 (SPX) to show a pronounced upward bias.  (Heck, that\u2019s what we\u2019ve seen for weeks, so why stop now?)  The IBKR Probability Lab shows a peak outcome of 6235-6240, above the current 6217 level:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

IBKR Probability Lab for SPX Options Expiring July 3rd<\/sup>, 2025<\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n
\"IBKR<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Source: Interactive Brokers<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

That said, there is indeed a pronounced downside skew for SPX options expiring tomorrow, something that is quite modest for options expiring next week and the week thereafter:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Skews for SPX Options Expiring July 3rd<\/sup> (top), July 11th<\/sup> (middle), July 18th<\/sup> (bottom)<\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n
\"Skews<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Source: Interactive Brokers<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Finally, we\u2019d like to take a look at the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) and it\u2019s 9-day counterpart VIX9D.  Neither is showing much concern either about events in the near-term, such as the Employment Report, the expiration of the tariff moratoria, or the mid-month arrival of earnings season.  It is likely that VIX9D is somewhat depressed by the fact that we are \u201cmissing\u201d one-and-a-half trading days during its calculation, but it nonetheless shows a general lack of demand for hedging protection.  We\u2019ll know tomorrow if that proved appropriate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

6-Months, VIX9D (red\/green daily candles), VIX (blue line)<\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n
\"6-Months,<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Source: Interactive Brokers<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

This trading week in the US is short but potentially consequential.\u00a0 This year, Independence Day (July 4th) falls on a Friday, and furthermore, US stock exchanges close at 1PM EDT tomorrow ahead of the three-day weekend.\u00a0 But there are some consequential numbers to be digested before those of us who are not already on vacation scoot away for the holiday.\u00a0 The June Employment report arrives tomorrow at 8:30 EDT.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":225341,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[14700,18,6,19,8,9,26,3],"tags":[20183,20184,20123,19325,20185],"contributors-categories":[13576],"class_list":{"0":"post-226724","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-ibkr-market-insights","8":"category-macro","9":"category-north-america","10":"category-options","11":"category-region","12":"category-securities","13":"category-text-articles","14":"category-traders-insight","15":"tag-employment-report-preview","16":"tag-labor-market-signals","17":"tag-monetary-policy-outlook","18":"tag-spx-options-skew","19":"tag-volatility-indicators","20":"contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nSeemingly 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