{"id":226665,"date":"2025-07-03T06:29:36","date_gmt":"2025-07-03T10:29:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=226665"},"modified":"2025-07-03T18:29:35","modified_gmt":"2025-07-03T22:29:35","slug":"stop-losses-rethinking-conventional-wisdom","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/ibkr-quant-news\/stop-losses-rethinking-conventional-wisdom\/","title":{"rendered":"Stop Losses: Rethinking Conventional Wisdom"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

The article “Stop Losses: Rethinking Conventional Wisdom” was originally posted on Robot Wealth<\/a><\/em> blog.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

How often have you heard someone say, \u201cI use a stop loss to manage downside risk\u201d?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

You see this repeated so often that you could be forgiven for thinking it was some inviolable universal law.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But do stop losses really<\/em> do what people think?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Let\u2019s think this through together. And fair warning \u2013 what I\u2019m about to say might make you uncomfortable. Especially if you\u2019ve been using stop losses because it\u2019s conventional wisdom (no judgement\u2026 everyone goes through this, including me).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Consider a scenario: You\u2019re trading a statistical edge based on a sentiment factor that you think has genuine predictive power. Your signal says get long, so you follow it and buy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Then the market drops. You\u2019re down. You can\u2019t help but wish you hadn\u2019t taken the position.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But here\u2019s the only important question:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Do you have any less edge now than when you put the position on?<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Maybe. Maybe not.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But your P&L definitely doesn\u2019t tell you that.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The only thing that matters is whether your signal<\/strong><\/em> says you still have an edge. Your signal is what gives you your edge in the first place.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So when you use a stop loss, you\u2019re letting a signal with no <\/strong><\/em>predictive power (your P&L) override a signal that does <\/strong><\/em>have predictive power (your edge).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Which is a bit like ignoring your doctor\u2019s advice because your Uber driver had a different opinion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In fact, if your signal is still saying \u201cbe long\u201d but you stop out of the position, you\u2019re going to need to get that position back on at some point. Otherwise, what the hell is the signal even for?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The case for stop losses<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

All that aside, there actually is<\/em> one case where a stop loss makes perfect sense.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That\u2019s when your trade P&L is genuinely predictive of future returns.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And there\u2019s a name for that scenario: trend<\/strong><\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Trend is simply past returns predicting future returns:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \n
  • If the market went up recently, it\u2019s more likely to keep going up<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • If the market went down recently, it\u2019s more likely to keep going down<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n

    When you\u2019re trading a trend system, negative P&L actually is<\/em> a predictor of future negative returns. So in this case, a stop loss aligns perfectly with your edge rather than fighting against it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    But here\u2019s the unfortunate reality: most markets don\u2019t show much actual trending behaviour.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Crypto is an exception (as anyone who lived through 2017 or 2021 can attest). Some commodities have exhibited trend characteristics in the past, too.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    But you wouldn\u2019t just assume trend exists without evidence, would you?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Of course you wouldn\u2019t.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    But stops make the backtest better<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

    \u201cBut Kris,\u201d I can hear someone protesting, \u201cmy strategy backtests better with stop losses!\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    That could mean one of two things:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      \n
    1. There\u2019s a genuine trend that your strategy doesn\u2019t account for. If so, you should dig into this, understand it, quantify it, and incorporate it properly into your trading strategy.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
    2. You\u2019re fitting to noise in historical data. In other words, you\u2019ve created a strategy that works great on past data but will likely fail going forward.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n

      I\u2019ve seen far more instances of #2 than #1.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      Now, I\u2019m not saying stops are never helpful.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      But using stops just because \u201cthat\u2019s what traders do\u201d without understanding if they actually complement your edge doesn\u2019t make much sense.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      Here\u2019s what I recommend:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

        \n
      1. Understand the source of your edge. If it\u2019s trend, then stops make sense.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
      2. If it\u2019s not trend-based, be careful about arbitrarily cutting yourself off from your edge.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
      3. Consider alternative position sizing approaches that don\u2019t rely on binary stops.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
      4. Test, but be sceptical of backtest results that seem too good to be true.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

        But do stop losses really do what people think?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":271,"featured_media":206033,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[339,338,341],"tags":[851,4873,20157],"contributors-categories":[13676],"class_list":["post-226665","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-data-science","category-ibkr-quant-news","category-quant-development","tag-algo-trading","tag-backtesting","tag-stop-losses","contributors-categories-robot-wealth"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nStop Losses: Rethinking Conventional Wisdom | IBKR Quant<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"But do stop losses really do what people think?\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, 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