{"id":226624,"date":"2025-07-01T10:51:30","date_gmt":"2025-07-01T14:51:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=226624"},"modified":"2025-07-02T16:02:40","modified_gmt":"2025-07-02T20:02:40","slug":"trade-of-the-day-no-to-eu-unemployment","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/forecast-trader\/trade-of-the-day-no-to-eu-unemployment\/","title":{"rendered":"Trade of the Day, \u201cNo\u201d to EU Unemployment > 6.3%: July 1, 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Monthly changes in the European unemployment rate have rarely exceeded 0.2%. In fact, going back to 2004, moves in excess of 0.2% were isolated to significant economic problems. Time periods near the Great Financial Crisis, the ensuing Euro Debt Crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic saw increases north of 0.2% in only a few months. Meanwhile, this Wednesday’s release is expected to reflect an unchanged 6.2% for May. In light of decent labor conditions and historical tendencies, a climb to 6.4% is highly unlikely and the \u201cNo\u201d<\/a> at 6.3% appears undervalued to me at just $0.80. Furthermore, out of the 30 forecasters surveyed in a Reuters poll, no one penciled in a jump of that magnitude, which is what\u2019s required for \u201cTeam No\u201d to lose here.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"IBKR<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\"Historical<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\"Eurozone<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Source for Images: ForecastEx<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of July 1, 2025.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders\u2019 Academy video here<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Monthly changes in the European unemployment rate have rarely exceeded 0.2%.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":903,"featured_media":223877,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[18929,18,6,9,3],"tags":[3224,20203,20205,20204,20206],"contributors-categories":[13760],"class_list":{"0":"post-226624","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-forecast-trader","8":"category-macro","9":"category-north-america","10":"category-securities","11":"category-traders-insight","12":"tag-economic-indicators","13":"tag-eu-unemployment-forecast","14":"tag-forecastex-trade","15":"tag-labor-market-stability","16":"tag-probability-trading","17":"contributors-categories-ibkr-macroeconomics"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nTrade of 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