{"id":226315,"date":"2025-06-25T12:21:24","date_gmt":"2025-06-25T16:21:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=226315"},"modified":"2025-07-12T09:02:10","modified_gmt":"2025-07-12T13:02:10","slug":"opinions-for-imminent-forecast-contract-expirations","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/prediction-market\/opinions-for-imminent-forecast-contract-expirations\/","title":{"rendered":"Opinions For Imminent Forecast Contract Expirations: June 25, 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Initial Unemployment Claims<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The \u201cYes\/No\u201d combo at 220k<\/a> and 260k<\/a> for initial unemployment claims has worked every week in the past two months and I think tomorrow\u2019s figure will remain within those parameters. The labor market is softening at the margins, but I don\u2019t expect a jump above 260k because that is a level signaling meaningful stress. It is a point we haven\u2019t exceeded since October 2021, almost four years ago. That time was characterized by fragile employment conditions as the economy was recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic, a weaker period relative to today\u2019s state of healthy staffing. This Thursday’s median estimate is at 245k and of the 34 forecasters surveyed by Reuters, projections range from a minimum of 235k to a maximum of 252k. I\u2019m in the under camp for this specific print, with an expectation of 242k. Furthermore, the slow hiring rate evidenced in payroll and job openings data doesn\u2019t support a plunge in filings down to the 220k territory and I believe that this combination is undervalued at a total price of $1.80, with the max loss being $0.80. Finally, I also like the \u201cNo\u201d at 270k, which is going for $0.96.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Historical<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\"IBKR<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\"IBKR<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\"IBKR<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Sure Shot \u201cNo\u201d Recession<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The US Economy will not enter a technical recession by the end of the first quarter of 2025 because there\u2019s 0 chance that the fourth quarter of 2024\u2019s 2.4% growth rate will be revised into negative territory. That\u2019s what\u2019s required for \u201cTeam No\u201d to lose here. The \u201cNo\u201d <\/a>answer here at $0.96 is undervalued and is a sure shot.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

\u201cYeses\u201d On Some New Energy Contracts<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

A simple trend analysis that folks can do easily on our IBKR ForecastTrader dashboard can help inform traders on indicators that they may not be familiar with. The recently introduced national energy data illustrate that the results in the 21st<\/sup> century have never failed to exceed the thresholds of IBKR predictive contracts as described below. To that end, I like the \u201cYes\u201d answers on all of the levels seen across three figures available below.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\u00ad<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Home Run Opportunities Too<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

With these recently launched energy contracts, which are also available with thresholds for specific states such as Texas, New York and California, there are some undervalued \u201cYes\u201d opportunities at much higher levels. Check out these \u201cYeses\u201d below, which are certainly not sure shots but offer very favorable risk-reward profiles in my opinion. Folks, these four \u201cYes\u201d answers cost a total of $0.15 and would pay out $4.00 if all are correct. But you just need one to earn a strong return of $1.00. I like the odds here. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Source for Images: ForecastEx<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of June 25, 2025.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders\u2019 Academy video here<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The \u201cYes\/No\u201d combo at 220k and 260k for initial unemployment claims has worked every week in the past two months and I think tomorrow\u2019s figure will remain within those parameters.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":903,"featured_media":223537,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[18929,18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[],"contributors-categories":[13760],"class_list":["post-226315","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-prediction-market","category-macro","category-north-america","category-region","category-securities","category-text-articles","category-traders-insight","contributors-categories-ibkr-macroeconomics"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nOpinions For Imminent Forecast Contract 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In this capacity, he is responsible for economic analysis, economic commentary and educational content focused on the economy. Prior to joining Interactive Brokers, Jos\u00e9 spent 6 years working as an economist in the United States government within the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) and the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). During his time with the U.S. government, Jos\u00e9 frequently led presentations covering economic conditions and forecasts for elected officials, political appointees and senior management. He also built economic models, consulted with private sector executives, contributed to the modernization of economic processes and gained recognition for predicting the inflationary episode of the 2020s. Jos\u00e9 has also been a professor of economics at the City University of New York and holds a master\u2019s degree in financial economics from West Texas A&M University. His skillset includes the ability to communicate and analyze complex economic topics in English and in Spanish and throughout his career, he has been interviewed by media outlets including Bloomberg, CNBC, CNN, WSJ, AP, Yahoo Finance, Cheddar, Business Insider, Seeking Alpha, PBS, FOX, Economic Times, Univision, Telemundo and others.","url":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/author\/jose-torres\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/unemployment-claim-featured-img.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/226315","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/903"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=226315"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/226315\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/223537"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=226315"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=226315"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=226315"},{"taxonomy":"contributors-categories","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/contributors-categories?post=226315"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}